HI Red
agree
when the margin calls go out, they need to raise money and EVERYTHING will be on the chopping block, especially GOLD & bonds
not to mention stocks with big profits that can be dumped.
http:/jaywiz.blgopsot.com
thanks for visiting
Jay
MY latest update gives the daily readings of what to expect this week
Rrman, one of my bloggers provided some history on the PANICS of the 25th of Tishrei which coincides with OCT4th this year
Remember the Hebrew Calendar is 13 months and that date can vary from Mid Spt to Mid Oct depending on the year
Jay
Some good theories you got there ACP. Just for the record, this site has never really been about technical analysis. I just use because it is useful, and does work… most of the time.
But, you have too add in politics, global events, and especially “the manipulation factor”… and that’s more about what I focus one.
So, your thoughts are important, as that’s what separates this site from all the other. In the end, the TA’s, fib’s, and EW’s charts will only get you so far… and the rest is just your gut feeling derived from all the other things going on in the world.
My gut also tells me that while this week will likely be a down week, next week could resume back up again. How far it goes is unknown? But a breakout above the 1150 level would likely cause a squeeze that could take it back up to the April highs again.
No way to tell yet, as it’s too early. The “top” may very well be in, but the be “fall off a cliff” move might not happen until after the elections. It’s likely to surprise everyone, as it’s got to be blamed on something bad happening… which of course we can’t predict.
But, as long as we continue to find good spots to get short at, and just sit out the rallies, we should be onboard when the fall starts. Keep those thoughts coming…
This may be a slightly overbearing analysis, but…
The Fed has a bunch of Permanent Ops left, and nearly each one has coincided with a drive higher in the Dow, while overall breadth seems to have just gotten on board as of Friday, which was the last op. Tomorrow is the next op, which would probably be targeted at 1/4 at what the Fed has left to purchase, which is $11 billion / 4 = $2.75 billion, plus or minus.
It’s possible the Fed’s counterparties could prop and market, or even drive it up farther, but at some point, the risk/reward ratio is going to be negative…assuming this is what the purchase cash has been used for. Now, keeping in mind this is as much of a psychological game as a numbers game (two-way auction), because the permabulls now have CNBC and other media outlets in their pockets, it would be easy to
blame a selloff on the numbers tomorrow, be they good or bad. Thursday and Friday were major spin days, as far as I’m concerned. I haven’t seen such blatant disregard for good reporting since the
months before the crash in 2008.
So, if today was the beginning of a selloff, it’s possible we could see this purchase cash hoarded until the first week of October, when it could be used to drive the market higher in a headfake, then removed, resulting in another leg down. The last op in this tranche is on Oct 7, with the next schedule released on Oct 13.
Also, bonds spreads in Europe since before the Greek credit crisis and they have not let up. I could only imagine what kinds of creative financing are being used in select countries in Europe to keep
the music going. One matchstick breaks, and the whole house follows.
I know this isn’t much technical anlysis, but the pricing action, volume, and the fact that David Tepper said (effectively) that stocks can’t possibly go down…coupled with the renewed haranguing of the media
about this supposed bond bubble…kinda sorta makes it look logical.
There are a lot of people who are using technical analysis and whoever is trying to break the charts is aware of this fact and wants the next selloff to be a surprise.
I think we have a small selloff this week, bounce on bad news to trap the “buy on dips” bulls next week, and then a continued downtrend. Then again, if there’s a crackhead at the helm (I know there’s a Larry Kudlow joke in there somewhere) we could see this thing move upward until margin calls force it down.
One Trade Idea, RS. Facing strong resistance and swatted down 1.5% today. Nicely shaped IHS pattern though, Buy above 42, stop below 41, target 49, take half off the table at halfway =45 which would be a 10% gain. Above 43.5, move stop to just below 42, since a backtest is likely.
And for the big picture, a Deadly Bearish Big Picture (to quote Bob Pretcher). The charts below are from data I get from a Commitment of Traders guy who occasionally sends out emails. They help keep things in perspective, which is important since so many media outlets are acting simply as cheerleaders rather than investigating and trying to fix the root cause of our fundamental problems.
I remember in 1988, we were driving up north Wisconsin for a fishing/drinking/wrestling trip, and our car popped the radiator. We had a church guy stop as we were trying to MacGyver some type of field fix, failing several times now. Church guy did not offer any help, he just said “I don’t know what kind of boys you are, but you just gotta have faith”. We all guffawed and I shot out — “Sir, we got faith, for sure we are going to get to our cabin, what we really need is a new radiator”. Church guy leaves.
Another guy stops and after a quick discussion, says aw hell, you guys got another vehicle at your cabin in Crivitz, hell I’ll take you there it is only 40 miles out of my way…….
Moral of the story–
The US is screwed because China ain’t gonna drive us to the cabin, and faith alone ain’t gonna get the job done.
Hey Red, I found your site about 2 months ago and have been enjoying it. Two quick things, Michael Jenkins at Stock Cycles Forecast believes either the top is in (for the year) now or will be by the end of next week around the 1161 level. Second, if you haven’t heard of it, you should check out Half Past Human dot com. It would be the King Daddy of Red Pill Sites, IMHO. It’s calling for an historic economic collapse this Fall and into 2011.
Hey Jay…
October the 4th huh… well, I’m not going to jynx it by calling it “Black Monday”, as every time I call for one… I’m wrong! LOL.
Let’s change the name to “Bloody Monday”, and maybe then well get one to work… he he he!
Wow… Apple sure did fall hard this morning. The market still seems to be holding on though, as it’s not down as much as I’d expect it to be.
Dow Jones Futures before opening bell
HI Red
agree
when the margin calls go out, they need to raise money and EVERYTHING will be on the chopping block, especially GOLD & bonds
not to mention stocks with big profits that can be dumped.
http:/jaywiz.blgopsot.com
thanks for visiting
Jay
MY latest update gives the daily readings of what to expect this week
Rrman, one of my bloggers provided some history on the PANICS of the 25th of Tishrei which coincides with OCT4th this year
Remember the Hebrew Calendar is 13 months and that date can vary from Mid Spt to Mid Oct depending on the year
Jay
Thanks Lucas…
I’ve known about that site for quite sometime now, but I forgot to add it to the blogroll. It’s there now… under “Red Pill Sites” of course.
Some good theories you got there ACP. Just for the record, this site has never really been about technical analysis. I just use because it is useful, and does work… most of the time.
But, you have too add in politics, global events, and especially “the manipulation factor”… and that’s more about what I focus one.
So, your thoughts are important, as that’s what separates this site from all the other. In the end, the TA’s, fib’s, and EW’s charts will only get you so far… and the rest is just your gut feeling derived from all the other things going on in the world.
My gut also tells me that while this week will likely be a down week, next week could resume back up again. How far it goes is unknown? But a breakout above the 1150 level would likely cause a squeeze that could take it back up to the April highs again.
No way to tell yet, as it’s too early. The “top” may very well be in, but the be “fall off a cliff” move might not happen until after the elections. It’s likely to surprise everyone, as it’s got to be blamed on something bad happening… which of course we can’t predict.
But, as long as we continue to find good spots to get short at, and just sit out the rallies, we should be onboard when the fall starts. Keep those thoughts coming…
This may be a slightly overbearing analysis, but…
The Fed has a bunch of Permanent Ops left, and nearly each one has coincided with a drive higher in the Dow, while overall breadth seems to have just gotten on board as of Friday, which was the last op. Tomorrow is the next op, which would probably be targeted at 1/4 at what the Fed has left to purchase, which is $11 billion / 4 = $2.75 billion, plus or minus.
It’s possible the Fed’s counterparties could prop and market, or even drive it up farther, but at some point, the risk/reward ratio is going to be negative…assuming this is what the purchase cash has been used for. Now, keeping in mind this is as much of a psychological game as a numbers game (two-way auction), because the permabulls now have CNBC and other media outlets in their pockets, it would be easy to
blame a selloff on the numbers tomorrow, be they good or bad. Thursday and Friday were major spin days, as far as I’m concerned. I haven’t seen such blatant disregard for good reporting since the
months before the crash in 2008.
So, if today was the beginning of a selloff, it’s possible we could see this purchase cash hoarded until the first week of October, when it could be used to drive the market higher in a headfake, then removed, resulting in another leg down. The last op in this tranche is on Oct 7, with the next schedule released on Oct 13.
Also, bonds spreads in Europe since before the Greek credit crisis and they have not let up. I could only imagine what kinds of creative financing are being used in select countries in Europe to keep
the music going. One matchstick breaks, and the whole house follows.
I know this isn’t much technical anlysis, but the pricing action, volume, and the fact that David Tepper said (effectively) that stocks can’t possibly go down…coupled with the renewed haranguing of the media
about this supposed bond bubble…kinda sorta makes it look logical.
There are a lot of people who are using technical analysis and whoever is trying to break the charts is aware of this fact and wants the next selloff to be a surprise.
I think we have a small selloff this week, bounce on bad news to trap the “buy on dips” bulls next week, and then a continued downtrend. Then again, if there’s a crackhead at the helm (I know there’s a Larry Kudlow joke in there somewhere) we could see this thing move upward until margin calls force it down.
Just my crazy theory. Any thoughts?
One Trade Idea, RS. Facing strong resistance and swatted down 1.5% today. Nicely shaped IHS pattern though, Buy above 42, stop below 41, target 49, take half off the table at halfway =45 which would be a 10% gain. Above 43.5, move stop to just below 42, since a backtest is likely.
And for the big picture, a Deadly Bearish Big Picture (to quote Bob Pretcher). The charts below are from data I get from a Commitment of Traders guy who occasionally sends out emails. They help keep things in perspective, which is important since so many media outlets are acting simply as cheerleaders rather than investigating and trying to fix the root cause of our fundamental problems.
I remember in 1988, we were driving up north Wisconsin for a fishing/drinking/wrestling trip, and our car popped the radiator. We had a church guy stop as we were trying to MacGyver some type of field fix, failing several times now. Church guy did not offer any help, he just said “I don’t know what kind of boys you are, but you just gotta have faith”. We all guffawed and I shot out — “Sir, we got faith, for sure we are going to get to our cabin, what we really need is a new radiator”. Church guy leaves.
Another guy stops and after a quick discussion, says aw hell, you guys got another vehicle at your cabin in Crivitz, hell I’ll take you there it is only 40 miles out of my way…….
Moral of the story–
The US is screwed because China ain’t gonna drive us to the cabin, and faith alone ain’t gonna get the job done.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
BTW, you have to subscribe to the Web Bot Reports at half past human dot com. They’re $10 a pop but totally worth it.
Hey Red, I found your site about 2 months ago and have been enjoying it. Two quick things, Michael Jenkins at Stock Cycles Forecast believes either the top is in (for the year) now or will be by the end of next week around the 1161 level. Second, if you haven’t heard of it, you should check out Half Past Human dot com. It would be the King Daddy of Red Pill Sites, IMHO. It’s calling for an historic economic collapse this Fall and into 2011.
I