After Obama speaks (noon… est. I think?) the market should sell off, and start the down move we are all looking for. I don’t think the market will be as concerned about what Bernanke says on Tuesday, as they expect nothing to change on the interest rates. Their biggest concern is whether or not Obama will give the market more crack cocaine (QE2).
There’s a triple convergence of esoteric cycles for Sept 20. Connected to 1987 and August 9 (think the magic number I mentioned earlier this week) and the BoshWadeLeBron one. Very interesting. CDS spreads are widening for the PIIGS but there is a virtual media blackout here in the US on this info.
Hi Red,
I think, next week or so the POT-BHP offer expires, so POT is going to move big, one direction or the other.
here’s what to do.
BUY a POT OCT 140 PUT 2.00 or so
BUY 2 POT OCT 160 calls…
This way if the deal doesn’t go thru
the put makes $1000. you are saved, you make + $700
if the deal does go thru, ( BHP raises its offer) you only subtract 2.00 off the $2000 profit, so $1800.
What do you think?
Getting gasoline to $4 would require a couple of things:
1. Restricted supply of oil (geopolitical event? natural disaster?)
2. Decrease in ability to refine the oil, maybe problems with pipelines or damage to refineries (hurricanes are good for this).
If I had to bet on something, I’d bet on a conflict in the Middle East.
Well, if I recall an early post I did… one of the reporters that follows what the Bilderburg Group does, quoted that they plan to increase the cost of gasoline to about $4.00 a gallon in November.
Since it’s current in the $2.60 range where I’m at here in Florida, that a pretty big move up in the price of oil. Should that happen, a large rally in the market could follow. I say “could”, because it’s not a guarantee that the market will rise just because oil does.
But, if another stimulus program is injected into the market next Tuesday (or Monday, when Obama speaks), then all the bears are screwed. I just don’t think it’s going to happen, or least it’s not going to have the same effect it did last time.
Shorting JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs is probably a safer bet, as they can still sell off even if the market rallies. The S&P can be held up though many different sectors, and the banks can go down while the market stays flat or rises some (as long as other sectors are rallying up to support it).
Next week is the key… we’ll either rally up like someone on crack, or crash down like someone who ran out of crack! LOL
I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the moves in equities. Oil is not confirming whatever is going on. It seems like money is being forced out of bonds, so I guess it has to find a home somewhere, right?
Remember our experiences from 2009 — just because something is overbought doesn’t mean it has to correct. If “new money” via the Fed. or flows from bonds or whatever keeps coming in, things can stay overbought for a long time while various resistance levels get retaken. I expected a bigger battle for 1120, to be honest.
If this rally is for real, expect a monster move in oil coming soon. UCO or calls on USO could be a good hedge if one is short.
After Obama speaks (noon… est. I think?) the market should sell off, and start the down move we are all looking for. I don’t think the market will be as concerned about what Bernanke says on Tuesday, as they expect nothing to change on the interest rates. Their biggest concern is whether or not Obama will give the market more crack cocaine (QE2).
There’s a triple convergence of esoteric cycles for Sept 20. Connected to 1987 and August 9 (think the magic number I mentioned earlier this week) and the BoshWadeLeBron one. Very interesting. CDS spreads are widening for the PIIGS but there is a virtual media blackout here in the US on this info.
Damn. $2.85 here in Wisconsin due to the “Canada pipeline issue”. Was $2.65 just days ago.
$4 would be a 40% increase.
Interesting… the only way to lose is if it doesn’t move big.
It’s already $4 a gallon in California. well $3.85 average.
Sept statistics…
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/rdl-9-17.jpg
Hi Red,
I think, next week or so the POT-BHP offer expires, so POT is going to move big, one direction or the other.
here’s what to do.
BUY a POT OCT 140 PUT 2.00 or so
BUY 2 POT OCT 160 calls…
This way if the deal doesn’t go thru
the put makes $1000. you are saved, you make + $700
if the deal does go thru, ( BHP raises its offer) you only subtract 2.00 off the $2000 profit, so $1800.
What do you think?
Getting gasoline to $4 would require a couple of things:
1. Restricted supply of oil (geopolitical event? natural disaster?)
2. Decrease in ability to refine the oil, maybe problems with pipelines or damage to refineries (hurricanes are good for this).
If I had to bet on something, I’d bet on a conflict in the Middle East.
Well, if I recall an early post I did… one of the reporters that follows what the Bilderburg Group does, quoted that they plan to increase the cost of gasoline to about $4.00 a gallon in November.
Since it’s current in the $2.60 range where I’m at here in Florida, that a pretty big move up in the price of oil. Should that happen, a large rally in the market could follow. I say “could”, because it’s not a guarantee that the market will rise just because oil does.
But, if another stimulus program is injected into the market next Tuesday (or Monday, when Obama speaks), then all the bears are screwed. I just don’t think it’s going to happen, or least it’s not going to have the same effect it did last time.
Shorting JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs is probably a safer bet, as they can still sell off even if the market rallies. The S&P can be held up though many different sectors, and the banks can go down while the market stays flat or rises some (as long as other sectors are rallying up to support it).
Next week is the key… we’ll either rally up like someone on crack, or crash down like someone who ran out of crack! LOL
I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the moves in equities. Oil is not confirming whatever is going on. It seems like money is being forced out of bonds, so I guess it has to find a home somewhere, right?
Remember our experiences from 2009 — just because something is overbought doesn’t mean it has to correct. If “new money” via the Fed. or flows from bonds or whatever keeps coming in, things can stay overbought for a long time while various resistance levels get retaken. I expected a bigger battle for 1120, to be honest.
If this rally is for real, expect a monster move in oil coming soon. UCO or calls on USO could be a good hedge if one is short.