One more push higher, then look out below!
Wednesday looks like a down day, as even if the market manages to gap up and reach the 1130 level, it's like to fall back down and break the support line from this rising wedge it's in. We are within days of some serious selling I believe. Next week Ben Bernanke is likely so say something on Tuesday that will likely be blamed for the coming sell off. But we all know it's just what's in the technicals...
It's been awhile...
All of last week I was have computer problems and just realized that I haven't made a post since the last weekend update I did... sorry about that. But, at least I picked a good week to do it... as this coming week should be pretty exciting. After much pondering on whether or not they are going to pump a ton of new stimulus money into the market, which could rally it to the DIA 118.16 FP level... I don't see it happening now.
I think that the last week when Bernanke promised to "do whatever it takes" (meaning more stimulus money)... has now run it's course, and the rally is just about over. The first time it worked for 13 months, and by April it ended. The rallies in between were more attempts to jump start the market, and only lasted a short while.
This should be the last injection of money by the Federal Reserve gangsters as the Fed will likely be bankrupt by the end of this year. There is still the planned switch to the newly gold backed Amero dollar, as Ben Fulford reports on it. The end of the Fiscal year is this September 31st, and in his last report he spoke of the US defaulting on it's international debt. When or if it really happens is unknown, but if it does... you will see market crash hard.
The new "WallStreet" movie called "Money Never Sleeps" is coming out on September the 24th, just 4 days after the Legatus Pilgrimage ends. The last Wallstreet movie was in 1987, just around the time period known as "Black Monday"... remember that?
Reinhardt now thinks that we aren't likely too see more stimulus in the third week of September, an my old friend that used too post many comments here also believes that "the high is in" (for the year). Those of you who have been around awhile will figure out who I'm referring too (hint: he has a thing with num-bers).
The charts show us that the market is ready to roll over at anytime now. Next week we should see a move lower, which could be the sell off we are look for, or just the "B" wave down (inside of wave 2 up), with the "C" wave up yet to come. If so, then it should peak around that September 20th-24th time period. I'd guess at the triple top level of 1130 spx, or possibly just a little higher (only to take out overhead stops... just before the sell off begins).
Of course we could also just sell off next week with a smaller wave 1 (inside a larger wave 3), with a smaller wave 2 back up the following week... and then the mother of all waves! A wave 3 of 3 of 3 of etc... etc... etc... (meaning "ONE BIG CRASH")!
I think that the Democrats that are trying to hold this market up until after the elections in November, but they are going to fail now I believe. Too many signs point to a final top within the next 2 weeks occurring. As much as they'd like to keep it up... the Viagra is wearing off now, and no amount more is going to work anymore. Sometimes it's just needs to go down and rest, and Dow 8300 is the likely resting point for this sick market.
I've been leaning bullish over the last few weeks, ever since that weekly chart (and the daily too) pointed back up on the histogram bars. It was also around the time that the Fed's pump more money into the market. At that time period, Reinhardt was still putting up pictures of women that were... how should I say this? errr... "in a stimulated state of mind".
I wondered why he was think that, as Bernanke already promised more money in the last Fed meeting about 2 weeks ago now. If he promised it back then, before the Legatus Pilgrimage (and the market rallied hard from it)... then what's left to do after the meeting? Can you say... nothing? ... as in "let the market fall to pieces".
I'm glad to see him change his opinion on it, as he's been correct too many times when it comes to the market direction before and after a Pilgrimage occurs. I don't like being on the opposite side of someone who has proven his ability to call the market direction correctly so many times.
So, let's try get a little closer look at next week. The daily chart is still pointing up, but can roll over at any time now. The 60 minute chart is still pointing up, but also can roll over at any time now. (I know, that's not much help... LOL). My point is this, while the charts are pointing up, the market is in in a rising wedge with ton's of overhead resistance and some of the lightest volume of the year supporting it.
That all spells danger! Danger Will Robinson... Danger! (you need to be at least my age to understand that quote). The triangle forming on the 15 minute chart could gap the market up on Monday, if it breaks out to the upside. Of course if it breaks down then the market should fall pretty hard from it. I'm leaning more for a breakout to the upside because of the 60 minute, daily and weekly chart still pointing up.
I've seen them rally all week (like last week), and get all the bears short at the end of the day on a Friday... and then gap it up on them Monday for the squeeze out, which then quickly reverses with no bears left to profit from it. Just typical manipulation on their part. Trick the masses, and not allow them to profit from the coming sell off. That what leads me to believe that we have 1-2 more weeks left before the wave 3's begin.
However, if we do go up on Monday, I think we'll sell off on Tuesday. Whether or not that is the start of the coming crash or not is still unknown? It depends on how far down we go? If we end the week out close to the 105.39 spy FP area, then I think the coming crash has started.
But, if we only sell off a little, and rally back to close the week out slightly down, flat, or even up (I doubt it, but possible), then that leads me to believe we'll see one more push higher to at least the 1130 triple top area. The time is near though, as we are about to see a big stock market crash coming... and it's likely to surprise a lot of traders too I believe.
Ok, to sum it... I'm leaning more toward a continued move up on Monday, and some selling on Tuesday. If the selling doesn't go down below the rising channel line now forming (about 1080-1085 area), then a final "C" wave back up into the week after this one is likely. That would top it out around the end of the Pilgrimage and the release of the new Wallstreet movie.
The other possibility is a sell off down to the 105.39 spy FP by the end of this week (making a wave 1 down, inside a larger wave 3), with the following week retracing part of the down move (making a wave 2 up, inside a larger wave 3 down)... which leaves same time period of the 20th-24th to start the multiple wave 3's down (aka... a "Stock Market Crash").
Hopefully everyone can get positioned short over this coming week, and possibly next week, as the move down is going to be very profitable (for the bears that is... he he he).
Good luck everyone...