Weekend Update – Wallstreet Never Sleeps

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Thursday Update...

One more push higher, then look out below!

Red

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Tuesday Update...

Wednesday looks like a down day, as even if the market manages to gap up and reach the 1130 level, it's like to fall back down and break the support line from this rising wedge it's in. We are within days of some serious selling I believe. Next week Ben Bernanke is likely so say something on Tuesday that will likely be blamed for the coming sell off. But we all know it's just what's in the technicals...

Red

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It's been awhile...

All of last week I was have computer problems and just realized that I haven't made a post since the last weekend update I did... sorry about that.  But, at least I picked a good week to do it... as this coming week should be pretty exciting.  After much pondering on whether or not they are going to pump a ton of new stimulus money into the market, which could rally it to the DIA 118.16 FP level... I don't see it happening now.

I think that the last week when Bernanke promised to "do whatever it takes" (meaning more stimulus money)... has now run it's course, and the rally is just about over.  The first time it worked for 13 months, and by April it ended.  The rallies in between were more attempts to jump start the market, and only lasted a short while.

This should be the last injection of money by the Federal Reserve gangsters as the Fed will likely be bankrupt by the end of this year.  There is still the planned switch to the newly gold backed Amero dollar, as Ben Fulford reports on it.  The end of the Fiscal year is this September 31st, and in his last report he spoke of the US defaulting on it's international debt.  When or if it really happens is unknown, but if it does... you will see market crash hard.

The new "WallStreet" movie called "Money Never Sleeps" is coming out on September the 24th, just 4 days after the Legatus Pilgrimage ends.  The last Wallstreet movie was in 1987, just around the time period known as "Black Monday"... remember that?

Reinhardt now thinks that we aren't likely too see more stimulus in the third week of September, an my old friend that used too post many comments here also believes that "the high is in" (for the year).  Those of you who have been around awhile will figure out who I'm referring too (hint:  he has a thing with num-bers).

The charts show us that the market is ready to roll over at anytime now.  Next week we should see a move lower, which could be the sell off we are look for, or just the "B" wave down (inside of wave 2 up), with the "C" wave up yet to come.  If so, then it should peak around that September 20th-24th time period.  I'd guess at the triple top level of 1130 spx, or possibly just a little higher (only to take out overhead stops... just before the sell off begins).

Of course we could also just sell off next week with a smaller wave 1 (inside a larger wave 3), with a smaller wave 2 back up the following week... and then the mother of all waves!  A wave 3 of 3 of 3 of etc... etc... etc...  (meaning "ONE BIG CRASH")!

I think that the Democrats that are trying to hold this market up until after the elections in November, but they are going to fail now I believe.  Too many signs point to a final top within the next 2 weeks occurring.  As much as they'd like to keep it up... the Viagra is wearing off now, and no amount more is going to work anymore.  Sometimes it's just needs to go down and rest, and Dow 8300 is the likely resting point for this sick market.

I've been leaning bullish over the last few weeks, ever since that weekly chart (and the daily too) pointed back up on the histogram bars.  It was also around the time that the Fed's pump more money into the market.  At that time period, Reinhardt was still putting up pictures of women that were... how should I say this?  errr... "in a stimulated state of mind".

I wondered why he was think that, as Bernanke already promised more money in the last Fed meeting about 2 weeks ago now.  If he promised it back then, before the Legatus Pilgrimage (and the market rallied hard from it)... then what's left to do after the meeting?  Can you say... nothing? ... as in "let the market fall to pieces".

I'm glad to see him change his opinion on it, as he's been correct too many times when it comes to the market direction before and after a Pilgrimage occurs.  I don't like being on the opposite side of someone who has proven his ability to call the market direction correctly so many times.

So, let's try get a little closer look at next week.  The daily chart is still pointing up, but can roll over at any time now.  The 60 minute chart is still pointing up, but also can roll over at any time now.  (I know, that's not much help... LOL).  My point is this, while the charts are pointing up, the market is in in a rising wedge with ton's of overhead resistance and some of the lightest volume of the year supporting it.

That all spells danger!  Danger Will Robinson... Danger!  (you need to be at least my age to understand that quote).  The triangle forming on the 15 minute chart could gap the market up on Monday, if it breaks out to the upside.  Of course if it breaks down then the market should fall pretty hard from it.  I'm leaning more for a breakout to the upside because of the 60 minute, daily and weekly chart still pointing up.

I've seen them rally all week (like last week), and get all the bears short at the end of the day on a Friday... and then gap it up on them Monday for the squeeze out, which then quickly reverses with no bears left to profit from it.  Just typical manipulation on their part.  Trick the masses, and not allow them to profit from the coming sell off.  That what leads me to believe that we have 1-2 more weeks left before the wave 3's begin.

However, if we do go up on Monday, I think we'll sell off on Tuesday.  Whether or not that is the start of the coming crash or not is still unknown?   It depends on how far down we go?  If we end the week out close to the 105.39 spy FP area, then I think the coming crash has started.

But, if we only sell off a little, and rally back to close the week out slightly down, flat, or even up (I doubt it, but possible), then that leads me to believe we'll see one more push higher to at least the 1130 triple top area.  The time is near though, as we are about to see a big stock market crash coming... and it's likely to surprise a lot of traders too I believe.

Ok, to sum it... I'm leaning more toward a continued move up on Monday, and some selling on Tuesday.  If the selling doesn't go down below the rising channel line now forming (about 1080-1085 area), then a final "C" wave back up into the week after this one is likely.  That would top it out around the end of the Pilgrimage and the release of the new Wallstreet movie.

The other possibility is a sell off down to the 105.39 spy FP by the end of this week (making a wave 1 down, inside a larger wave 3), with the following week retracing part of the down move (making a wave 2 up, inside a larger wave 3 down)... which leaves same time period of the 20th-24th to start the multiple wave 3's down (aka... a "Stock Market Crash").

Hopefully everyone can get positioned short over this coming week, and possibly next week, as the move down is going to be very profitable (for the bears that is... he he he).

Good luck everyone...

Red

166 COMMENTS

  1. Look on Wikipedia…. I do not know much about it but there was also a movie called Wall Street that came out in….. you got it…. 1929!

  2. Ramping it up till the last bull is in today. Lets see what effect the 200dma will have. Alot of bullish sentiment. Gap and crap would not surprise me………….

  3. I expect some selling (probably Tuesday), but the rest of the week could go back up and erase any selling. So yeah, I agree with you on that one. I’m looking more toward the week after opx to be down. This week is a tough one to call.

  4. Tuesday the most bullish day of OPX (normally) that doesn’t mean it can’t go down for sure, btw I told hobstars that the overnight high is most likely in and we are stair stepping down now

  5. It’s also called “Turnaround Tuesday”… but yes, it could still be an UP down, and the rest of the week sell back down some. I’m not expect a big sell off this week, as it could end about flat… but next week is another story.

  6. i had average the put at every rise 5500,5600,5700, now waiting for 5900 common, i want to see how extreme this meaningless rally……..

    red i want to ask u why ‘they’ use fp to pointing out the next target? is there any technical reason ? there r many other things too. if it is only method then they must have mention their expected time frame with that fp with any other form of code……….is it possible?

  7. I’m sure the people they are sending the message to… know the code for the time frame. I don’t know the that information unfortunately, so I have to use technical analysis to figure out the direction, and add in the FP’s when we go in that direction.

  8. then they must be post some (fake) fp’s time to time to confuse us.

    what i feel that we go 1130 area today(or tomoorow) with extreme buying to the perfect entry point for us & even feel like many beers wouldnt get entry when fall began becaus it might be huge one too unexpected for every one. i hope this will happen ……….

  9. I think 1130 would be a great place to get short. We should have a move down from that level for sure… at least a one day move, and maybe more?

    The concern is that they might try to pop it above that level briefly, to clear out the overhead stops… then reverse hard not allowing the bears to get short. The move down will likely happen overnight, when no one is positioned for it.

  10. I’m finally getting some signals I can use, on my overnight index charts. Let me calculate some ranges, and I’ll get back to you. They already say, at least 1 down day this week.

  11. Anthony Allyn is now bearish again. The Trader is bearish although he is writing about an extended topping process. Despite the up day, TLT made a daily reversal higher. $Vix had a reversal bar and is now 5 days removed from closing below its lower BB. The last two instances saw the $vix rise sharply 4 days after such an occurrence. USO crude oil with a black bar. Tomorrow will see a TD 9 upcount if SP closes above 1100. So far all of these summer rallies have not reached a TD 9 upcount. 12 day rate of change at 6% for SP right near the levels (actually slightly higher) of the last two summer peaks. This rally is truly a snapback affair unlike the others since its been basically straight up. Doji tops aren’t required. It’s near the point of exhaustion. 60min Macd lines did cross higher but not by much and will have a hard time separating. A same pattern occurred at the June 21 top.

  12. SP closed at 1121.x2 so we have two esoteric numbers embedded in there and I think SP was up 1.11% and $vix closed at 21.21 (a reversal also of the SP closing high #). I think $rut closed at 653 (11(1110). The Dow has today’s date embedded in its closing number and I saw that with gold last week.

  13. Great day for the bulls. Had to cover this morning. I feel a selloff is coming as soon as tomorrow. Bulls are everywhere. Everyone expects lots of upside during OPEX. Bear cap still on.

  14. Great day for the bulls. Had to cover this morning. I feel a selloff is coming as soon as tomorrow. Bulls are everywhere. Everyone expects lots of upside during OPEX. Bear cap still on.

  15. Maybe RTH goes down on Tuesday, same store sales…CMG looks like it will take a hit by the same store sales report. RTH down, and that’s a down Tuesday, most likely.

  16. Some more esoteric numerology. 1121 is basically the midpoint between the squares of 33 (1089) and 34 (1156). It is 33 numbers from the square of 33 and 34 from the square of 1156. 34+33=67 and I have mentioned there have been regular occurrences of a 67td cycle since the March 2009 low and 33 is an occult number and 34 a fib number. 1123 (todays high) is also 89 pts from 1212 April closing high, 89 being a fib number also. Today was also 89 tds from the May 6 low. The Gann square level that contains the squares of 33 and 34 contains 134 numbers, meaning numbers on that level 67 pts apart are 180 degrees from each other. 1212-134 is at the 1078 area which is a weekly TD support level. Interesting that the market keeps vibrating around that level. 1212-201 (3×67) is basically the July low levels or 540degrees????

  17. Red, saw your post on HOB. The way gold and silver are running, maybe Benjamin Fulford is correct about the US Defaulting? I almost pulled the trigger and bought ZSL yesterday. Whew! lol Sitting on the side w/the little bear cash I have left and looking to go short soon!

  18. A big move is coming, and I really don’t think it’s going to be one to the upside. It could start anytime now, but I’m sure they are trying to hold it up until after opx this Friday.

    Unless they plan on getting short themselves, and profiting from really cheap expiring September options? I’d keep a sharp eye out for some huge put buying volume on this front month expiration.

    Cobra posted about a large buyer of puts last month… and it drops hard on that Friday… meaning that large buyer knew where it was going. Let’s see if he returns…

  19. 1122 is really the magic number. 33 #s from the square of 33 and 34 nmbrs from the square of 34. 89 tds from 05-06 could also be a veiled reference to the 8/9 high. The late August low came 89days from April 26 high. 1121-1123 would sit on the top left corner of the Gann square. 1212 is nearly on the opposite end of the square but several numbers inward. 1127-1131 would be more likely 180 degrees as they are inward on the Gann square. 9-13-10 reminded me of the 1131 summer solstice high.

  20. Red,

    In the past you spoke of SPY 20.16. Is that a FP or just a target someone developed with EW/technical analysis? I agree that level would be scary even for us bears…well we might crack a small smile if we ride it down with a little FAZ/TZA 😉

  21. The VIX contracts end at the open tomorrow for the September contracts. It would be a good place to start a sell off in my opinion, as all the remaining contracts are for October… hence the writer of them has another month before paying out on any of them.

  22. Agreed… if it rallies into the close, and hits or comes close to 1130, that would be an excellent place to get short. I just can’t see another up day tomorrow. I think we will sell off some, as this wedge has got to break soon.

  23. Quite a close. SP close at 1121.10—-an embedded date there also. Keep that date on the radar. I’ve seen it indicated as a possible key cycle date. Dow tanked harder. $vix had a daily reversal higher and finished positive over 1% higher. $vix close 21.56 2111 with a possible veiled reference to the flash crash date. $sp was down .08 -.07% or 87 (1987?) 50 day average is at 1089 (another reference to 08-09-10 high? ie 33 squared. I saw that 111 day average was at 1111 yesterday and until yesterday that average had been capping the market all summer long.

  24. Today is 9-14. Release date for LP’s 1000 Suns. http://www.linkinpark.com
    They performed “The Catalyst” for the VMAs not at the awards show but at the Griffith Park Observatory at dusk (the setting of the sun). Plenty of obselisks around them as they perform the song. The video of the performance is at that link if one clicks to the next main page as well as the original video. Plent of subliminal touches in their making of the album video as well as the original video for the Catalyst. All vintage David Fincher touches. He must have been brought in to direct the music video as a ghost director as this is an important project fot TPTB. A lot of money put into it. The production values are far superior to a normal LP video. He originally started out as a video director. A few references to Fight Club and then in the video Mike in the car holds his hand out and there is a jump cut as he does this with a subliminal image spliced in between. But the making of the album video is littered with these type of jump cuts with subliminal images planted in between. Also some similar images to 7.
    The first NFL game of the year featured a 9-14 score. The Cramer Code has 9-15 as a potential big down day. It’s right there as 04:18:15 (4 shouldn’t mean anything because it didn’t appear to mean anything with the other sequence of numbers). Atlanta Pittsburgh had a 9-15 score. The stock market topped on September 11 in 1930.

  25. The faded film look with the erratic editing to give the look of old filmstock which is in the making of the album trailer is right out of the beginning of “The Game” Fincher definitely an illum. director.
    Either the director is a serious Fincher fan or these videos were ghost-directed by him. It’s hard to believe someone can duplicate his techniques……
    Griffith Park Observatory is at 34 degrees latitude……Sunset on Sept 12 at34degrees was 6:34. First quarter moon rises at 7am on Sept 15 with full moon on Sept 23.

  26. This afternoon, I heard an intro/promo on a local radio statio for L.P.’s The Catalyst with the announcer speaking like a reverend. He spoke of something to the effect of turning all of our bibles to page 1067 to the sermon of Chester Littlefield (LP singer). Interesting 1067 is the flash crash low. What other significance does it have? Obviously it has some deeper meeting.

  27. Don’t forget what Ben Fulford said… the Fed is going to be bankrupt soon… most likely before the end of the year. And, the US is likely to default on their International Debt.

    There are many different possible triggers that could start this coming sell off… including WW3! (I certainly hope it’s not that one).

  28. great video red, thanks

    i figure whatever the market does into the Fed meeting is probably fadeable, so if we sell off hard into next tues (i.e SPY 105 ?) then maybe they provide a “surprise” and get an explosion. If we rally or stay flat into the announcement, it could be a sell the news. One thing is sure: I don’t trust anything the banks are saying about what they expect.

  29. Japan intervened in the currency markets. 99% chance market drops tomorrow due to overbought nature and hitting 9 TD upcount. It will be interesting to see how this affects things. Stocks are doing anything so far. Crude oil is down somewhat.

  30. From the Stock Traders Almanac:
    September 17th – September Triple witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of the last 7

    – Week after September triple witching, Dow down six of the last 7, Five in a row 2002-2006 with heavy losses 2002-2005

  31. Looks like we are going to see that selling now, as the premarket is selling off some… and outside of that rising trend line. It might be shorted lived, and rally back on Thursday or Friday, as Jigsaw pointed out… odd’s favor an up day for this Triple witching. We’ll see…

  32. We have discovered the power of levitation, folks! 🙁 It shouldn’t keep floating, but it does!!! QE1.5 must be MUCH bigger than we’ve been told!

  33. Besides the Fed meeting next Tuesday (the 21st), there is another more secret meeting tomorrow the 16th in Washington D.C., which is likely more important then next Tuesday as it will probably determine what is going to be announced on that date anyway.

    So, that means that if tomorrows’ meeting doesn’t bod well for the gangsters, they will likely be selling early before the Tuesday news is released to the general public.

    Putting 2 and 2 together in this article by Ben Fulford tells me that the market crashing next week is very likely to happen. Read the article for yourself and tell me what you think of it?

    http://benjaminfulford.blog.shinobi.jp/Entry/46/

    Here’s the link to the 911 lie…

    http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2010/09/14/evidence-proves-911-story-is-a-lie/

    Here’s a video I just did explaining my thoughts on the whole deal…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKmBdkGvLnM

    Red

  34. Hi pez,
    The only reason they go subscription, like me, is they have discovered a away to be correct (70 or more, out of 100 times)
    oiltradersblog, I’ll add his site to my list. I had 8 sites, now I’ll have 9.

  35. The 60 minute chart is pointing up now. If the initial claims numbers are viewed positive tomorrow morning at 8:30 am, we could see a gap up. That would get us above the 1130 level and allow a push toward 1150 area. Not saying it will get there, but anything is possible.

  36. Initial Claims probably doesn’t matter. Zero Hedge had a article today that stated Billions were pumped in liquidity this morning. As long as this keeps happening bears will get killed. Good luck all.

  37. Euro just took a nice drop during the last 15 minutes. Crude oil is down noticeably. Now let’s see if they aren’t reversed when I wake up in the morning which generally seems to be the case. Today is 26 trading days from August 9 top which was 26 tds from July bottom and this is part of what has generally been a 13td low cycle going back to May 6.
    ……NBC believes THE EVENT happens on September 20 http://www.kroq.radio.com (see ad on the right hand side)

  38. haha,The Event, I like that. As someone with shorts waiting for this thing to pullback, it just feels like an impossibility at this point.

  39. 50%bulls AAII survey!!!!! That is a major sell signal. Market probably tanks big tomorrow with big gap down to frustrate the bears. Ticker sense had 60%+ bulls earlier in the week. If crude oil closes tomorrow where it currently is it will be a bearish flip (close below close 4 periods earlier)…..September 20 has the Bosh,Wade,Lebron thing going for it…..Transports again with the best topping formation rising wedge with a box like formation the last two days. I suppose they could pin the market into opex but savvy market pros know what that AAII survey means and I don’t think Mr. Market is going to let the lollygaggers in so easily.

  40. How convenient that the France/Roma controversy pops up just in time to deflect any EU scrutiny of EU finances. Heh!

  41. Since the 60 minute chart is in oversold territory today, I expect it to push up positive into the close and tomorrow… which means we’re not likely to see any selling stick today.

  42. Red- Do you have any thoughts on the effect of the 52 cent ex div price that Spy will have on SDS or Oct/Nov spy puts tomorrow?

  43. Spy goes down 52 cents. You think it would help SDS or puts but it doesn’t I suppose….. it is not that easy…. thanks anyway.

  44. Yeah, when they re-adjust those etf’s funny things can happen. Sometimes the etf will move up or down a certain percentage, but the 2x and 3x bull and bearish etf’s don’t move at all? It’s strange how they figure it out, but most traders treat the ex div adjustments as non-important.

  45. I think nothing much is going to happen this week. It’s opx tomorrow, and I’m sure they already planned out where they are going to pin the spy at. It’s looking like that 113 level as a likely target.

    Regardless if the move it up or down a little tomorrow, I see next week selling off hard. I still expect to see that 105.39 FP sometime soon… like before the end of next week.

  46. I have 1 FP at SPY 112.35 and 4 FP’s at 113.06 from Quote Tracker. I’m thinking Red is correct and we close up…

  47. yes, Z I saw that a few weeks ago but forgot to capture it.

    Z, I tried with IE, Firefox, Opera to go to your site but cant. Change that you believed in may not be working properly (lol)

  48. Use the red at reddragonleo dot com email address, as I never check the gmail one. I only use it for the google chat program. But I’ll check it now, and get the print you sent.

  49. I think I need to wait for a huge red candle on the indexes, like down 200 on the dow, and then I think the market will correct swiftly, in say 5 or 6 trading days, down 1000 points, and then the NOV elections rally begins…That’s one of the scenarios I’m theorizing.

  50. Futures ramping up as expected. Bulls are giddy. If CPI comes in on the higher end it could signal the wrench in the rally. Stagflation may be creeping in…………G.L. all

  51. Looking at this 60 minute chart, it tells me that the histograms bars will move into positive territory over the next few hours, and be ready to roll back down again into the close.

    I don’t expect very many positive bars to occur… if it’s able to break positive at all? I think we’ll sell off hard and break the trendline of support before this day ends.

  52. Yesterday’s Mr. TopStep video…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO4SB-YTHCU&feature=player_embedded

    Tim called the head fake perfectly, as the ES broke out and above the 1122.90 (up to 1135.90… but it stopped short at 1133.75) level he was talking about, but the cash (spx) went to 1131.47 and quickly reversed (Tim called for 1131.23, so it peaked above that level briefly but couldn’t hold).

    What all this means is beyond me? But, if Diablos seen a 114.18 SPY FP this morning, then that could be the final high? It would probably match up with the levels Tim is talking about too.

    While we could have another shake out bear squeeze Monday, the odds favor today putting in the final high. The Legatus Pilgrimage is over on the 20th, the Fed speaks on the 21st, and the new Wallstreet movie is on the 24th… which all spells crash too me!

    Taking a short position today would probably be a wise thing too do… even if we rallied a little higher on Monday. Because waiting and hoping for one more high on Monday could cause a missed opportunity… should Monday gap down instead.

    Since we have that FP on JPM, I’d say that buy some puts on it today would also be a wise move. Yesterday was a better day to get short on it, as it’s already started to sell off today. But, if it goes down to 31 within the next few weeks, then getting short today will still make one a lot of money.

  53. Hi Red,

    I hope you don’t mind a little distraction from market watching.

    ‘Gecko’ would love this:

    Look at this site’s front page ( http://vigilantcitizen.com/) advertising banner in the middle. Tip: “Linkin park”

    Check what the site is all about and compare what kind of advertisement G00gle deems matching for this kind of context.

    The banner choice was made by G00gle (its adsense-display network) algorithmically and not by the site’s owners/webmasters.

    Huh?

  54. I thought you would…
    The posts are pleasure to read, they are substantial,well researched and original.
    Enjoy!

  55. I’d say it’s pretty much guaranteed that we are going up to the 114.18 spy FP that Diablo’s got this morning. It’s not looking likely today, but it could happen on “Bullish Monday” next week.

  56. Here’s latests Mr. TopStep with Danny Riley…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSyTE0Hm1us&feature=player_embedded

    A early morning pop up on Monday (if we don’t gap down from some false flag event over the weekend) will likely be the last point to get short.

    I don’t know how high it could go, but I can’t see any higher then about the 1150 level. However, the current high might be it? Maybe a spike up to 1135-1140 on the opening of Mutual Fund Monday, and then the sell off we are all looking for.

    Again, since we have that 114.18 spy FP, that may be all she wrote for the bulls? (That would be about 1140 on the spx).

  57. The markets very weak today. I am worried it won’t even finish with a doji. It’s very easy for most markets to do a bear flip today except for the Nasdaq. Transports had a nice selloff yesterday and did nothing today. Crude oil continues to drop after its bear flip yesterday. XLF down. With all the exuberance of tech earnings last night, this isn’t a good sign for the market. Plus Nasdaq just hit a key retracement level. SP has a rising wedge with 11 straight closes above 4 closes earlier and close to doing a bear flip. I’d say the odds favor the bears.

  58. Obama has a town hall meeting on Monday at 12pm. I can’t see the market cratering during that time even though there is a nasty cycle due that day.

  59. Today was 54 trading days from the July low. There was a 54 trading day rally from Feb low to April 26 high. Jeff Cooper and another cycles guy has mentioned the symmetry on a weekly basis. 54thtrading day on April 26 was a turn day. 60 min MACD lines still cannot cross higher despite the constant gap ups and this includes the Nasdaq.

  60. $dax and $ftse had nasty reversals today. So maybe Monday does start off brutally and the front man in chief can blame it on Europe.

  61. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the moves in equities. Oil is not confirming whatever is going on. It seems like money is being forced out of bonds, so I guess it has to find a home somewhere, right?

    Remember our experiences from 2009 — just because something is overbought doesn’t mean it has to correct. If “new money” via the Fed. or flows from bonds or whatever keeps coming in, things can stay overbought for a long time while various resistance levels get retaken. I expected a bigger battle for 1120, to be honest.

    If this rally is for real, expect a monster move in oil coming soon. UCO or calls on USO could be a good hedge if one is short.

  62. Well, if I recall an early post I did… one of the reporters that follows what the Bilderburg Group does, quoted that they plan to increase the cost of gasoline to about $4.00 a gallon in November.

    Since it’s current in the $2.60 range where I’m at here in Florida, that a pretty big move up in the price of oil. Should that happen, a large rally in the market could follow. I say “could”, because it’s not a guarantee that the market will rise just because oil does.

    But, if another stimulus program is injected into the market next Tuesday (or Monday, when Obama speaks), then all the bears are screwed. I just don’t think it’s going to happen, or least it’s not going to have the same effect it did last time.

    Shorting JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs is probably a safer bet, as they can still sell off even if the market rallies. The S&P can be held up though many different sectors, and the banks can go down while the market stays flat or rises some (as long as other sectors are rallying up to support it).

    Next week is the key… we’ll either rally up like someone on crack, or crash down like someone who ran out of crack! LOL

  63. Getting gasoline to $4 would require a couple of things:

    1. Restricted supply of oil (geopolitical event? natural disaster?)
    2. Decrease in ability to refine the oil, maybe problems with pipelines or damage to refineries (hurricanes are good for this).

    If I had to bet on something, I’d bet on a conflict in the Middle East.

  64. Hi Red,
    I think, next week or so the POT-BHP offer expires, so POT is going to move big, one direction or the other.
    here’s what to do.
    BUY a POT OCT 140 PUT 2.00 or so
    BUY 2 POT OCT 160 calls…
    This way if the deal doesn’t go thru
    the put makes $1000. you are saved, you make + $700
    if the deal does go thru, ( BHP raises its offer) you only subtract 2.00 off the $2000 profit, so $1800.
    What do you think?

  65. There’s a triple convergence of esoteric cycles for Sept 20. Connected to 1987 and August 9 (think the magic number I mentioned earlier this week) and the BoshWadeLeBron one. Very interesting. CDS spreads are widening for the PIIGS but there is a virtual media blackout here in the US on this info.

  66. After Obama speaks (noon… est. I think?) the market should sell off, and start the down move we are all looking for. I don’t think the market will be as concerned about what Bernanke says on Tuesday, as they expect nothing to change on the interest rates. Their biggest concern is whether or not Obama will give the market more crack cocaine (QE2).

  67. That count is still possible Diablos. Since we have a downside FP of 105.39 spy, as long as it reverses back up there then we could rally until the end of the year?

    I don’t think it will happen, but it’s possible. I think the 105.39 FP is only the first stop going down (possibly by the end of this coming week?), and the final stop is Dow 8300… then a rally up until early next year (probably to the DIA 118.16 FP).

    Everything points to a big sell off… not just down to the 105.39 spy FP, and then a reversal. I don’t think that’s a big enough move for the boys at the Pilgrimage.

    The last Pilgrimage took the market up from February the 5th to April the 26th… a 2 1/2 month rally. I expect at least half of that time period on the sell off too.

    It was about a 170 point move up in the spx during that period, and I expect about the same or more on the coming downturn.

    But, that doesn’t mean we can’t go back up to the DIA 118.16 print over the next 6 months, as that’s still possible too. I just think we go down to DOW 8300 first, and then back up.

  68. red, i think these guys now looking for something more. may be now they look for india which is perfect for them to manipulate…..& much volatile conditions & people lack of knowledge about share market…….

    if market crack down very hard between the last hour i will take it as a sell signal in u.s & then offcours all over the world.

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