Friday, May 24, 2024

Weekend Update – Market Manipulation To Extreme!

Friday afternoon update...

Looks like I "may" have figured out my computer problem? Let's give it more time first, but it seems to be running stable now.

Red

P.S. Have a good weekend everyone...

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Wednesday update...

No More Taking The Stairs UP!

(I made a mistake thinking today was Memorial Day in the video. Duh... it's Labor Day! Sorry).

Last week is a clear example of how well controlled and manipulated this market really is.  A normal market will take the stairs up (meaning it slowly makes gains every day), and the elevator down (meaning it usually falls up to 6 times as fast going down, when compared to up).  But last week the market took the elevator up too... why?  Was this normal, or manipulation?

Duh!  We all know the answer there... MANIPULATION!  No normal market rallies straight up like we seen last week.  While the market has always been controlled, the level of manipulation today far exceeds that of just as little as 2 years ago.

All this monopoly money that the gangsters are printing has changed the game dramatically.  The little guys don't stand a chance in this rigged game.  It's not the same as playing blackjack in Vegas... it's worst!  Of course we all know that the house wins 95% of the time or more, but at least in that game the house doesn't know what you have in your hands.

In the market, they can see in your hands by the about of open interest on the various strike prices for the expiring option... and they can also see where everyones' "stops" are placed at!  That's like the house looking at your cards in Vegas... absolutely insane!

So why do we continue to play this rigged game?  I dunno... stupid I guess?  While I was calling for a move back up to the FP of 111.17 (spy) last week, I had NO idea that the market would go straight up on a rocket ship like it did.  Talk about total B.S.... that certainly was!

There was NO reason... not fundamentally, technically, or elliottwave that could explain the move up we had last week.  This was done for one reason... to rob the bears!  Many of my online blogger friends were hurt very badly during that ramp job.  I was lucky that I didn't have any positions at the time, but many others did.

There were a few brave one's who were long the market, and they were rewarded greatly.  Being a bear, I just don't have the guts to go long in this depression we are in.  I'll go long when the spy hits 20.16, but in the meantime... I'll just sit out the rallies in between.  LOL

Moving on...

The last video I did I thought that we would sell off on Friday to the 105.39 FP, making a "B" wave down in an ABC move up to the 111.17 FP from many weeks back.  But instead, they decide to skip the "B" wave down and simply go straight up to the 111.17 print first.  That leaves next week to go down to the 105.39 FP level, and then... who knows?

This market is so rigged that virtually impossible to get a clear direction of where the next trend is going to be?  I thought we would go down to the Dow 8300 FP one week, and then the next week I changed opinion to going up to the DIA 118.16 FP... and now I'm clueless as to which one we will hit first?

Of course that's exactly how they planned it... to confuse everyone.  But, knowing the targets (by the FP they give us) we should be able to figure out which one they are going too first by using technically analysis.  However, TA's only work for as long as they allow them to work.

How long is that?  Just about long enough to get ever bull and bear positioned in the market happily, thinking they got the next move figure out... and then BAM, they pull a rabbit out of hat!  I wonder why I keep trying to figure this game out, as every time I think I got it mastered, the rules change.

Such is life I guess.  Walking in a mine field voluntarily isn't the brightest thing too do, but us traders do it every day I guess.  Why do we do it time and time again?  I guess it's just the same reason people buy lottery tickets every week... one day we'll hit the jackpot (or just go broke trying... LOL).

Now to the market...

Clearly, from looking at the charts, you can see that we are overbought on the daily now, as well as the 60 minute chart too.  So yes, we should sell off on Tuesday... but will we?  With the light volume expected all week, due mainly to it being a shorten time period because of Memorial Day on Monday, I'm not expecting a lot traders too be there to buy and sell.

So, if they plan on taking it back down to the 105.39 FP next week, it will be the institutions selling while the little guy is sleeping (just like it always is...), which makes you wonder about the Legatus meeting starting on the 9th?  Are we going to rally into the meeting, and sell off after... or will the 105.39 FP be the low going into it, with a several month rally afterwards?

From a political point of view, I believe the Democrats would like to rally into the November elections.  But, there is still plenty of time to go down to the 8300 print first, and rally the rest of the year.  I look at the weekly chart and it does look ready to go up into positive territory on the histogram bars.  I've said in many video's that I'd like to see several positive bars occur, and then a roll over into the abyss.

You will notice that the weekly chart rallied up to the 20 and 50 day moving average lines and stopped.  There is a ton of overhead resistance beyond the current level, but with Bernanke now pumping more stimulus into the market, and the big institutional gangsters (errr... I mean banksters) sitting on their hands waiting for the "green light" to hit the sell button again... I just don't think that resistance will hold them back if they want to go higher.

So what's the bottom line?  While we are short term overbought, the intermediate term shows the market turning up now.  Of course it could just as easily roll back down at anytime, but for now it appears they plan to rally for awhile.  I can't say it's going to be easy, but again... anything is possible.

However, even if we do go up a little more next week, we should turn around the 12th according to the SpiralDates chart... which would line up with a the Legatus meeting too.  It would give the gangsters enough time to cash their check during the first few days of the Pilgrimage.

Let's also not forget that America could be announcing that it's going to default on it's international debt before the 31st of this month (according to Benjamin Fulford).  If that happens, then we go down... if not, then I guess we go up?  I know that's not much help, but I can see bullish patterns forming now... even though my gut tells me they are going to surprise everyone and tank it hard.

So hang in there bears, I really don't think we are going up too much further next week.  If we get to 1130 area, that would be a triple top... which I don't see it breaking on the first try.  "IF" and that's a big "if", we do continue higher next week, I'd expect it to fall short of that triple top, or go up there and trade sideways for several days baiting all the bulls into thinking it's going to break out from the bull flag it would form... then turn her back down around the 12th.

By the way, the 12th is on a Sunday... so that would imply a "weekend event" to cause a sell off the following week.  What could that be I wonder?  A post 911 bear celebration... maybe?  You know they aren't going to crash it on September the 11th... but the week after is a different story.

If I had to guess (and that all I do anyway), I'd say we chop around that 1130 level next week doing nothing be eroding the time value of any options the bulls and bears have.  We might even do an intraday stop swept just above that level on September the 10th to clear out the bears just before the plunge.

Anyway gang, I'm just speculating here, as I don't know what they have planned... or where the market is going next week.  So I'll close for now and wish everyone success next week.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

I had 1135 on sept 21, but now I have 1150 by eod thursday or friday morning. I’m not sure if I believe it myself, I’ll find out soon enough. A ‘pause’ at around 1123 would help to confirm….

http://screencast.com/t/ODkyNzRjNT

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think we could go down to 1090 area Tuesday to fill the gap, and then back up the rest of the week. It’s likely to be choppy, while they weed out the bulls and bears.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

The Cramer Code does imply a major meltdown from Sept 4 to September 15 (previously I had interpreted it to mean a June 18 to Sept 4 meltdown but that still might work as an important peak to peak as the illum. work in anagrams and riddles). The Sept 1930 stock market high was made on a double top which the 2010 stock market has probably already seen (June 18/21 and August 9)

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

I haven’t checked any of the blogs today or any weekend subscription info but currently crude oil is down nearly $1 from Friday and the euro is down hard from yesterday yet SP futures are slightly up. Something doesn’t jibe there. It was very depressing getting caught up in the moment last week and seeing a potential blastoff higher in every technical indicator but the long weekend has provided a nice dose of clarity and perspective. 4 day indicators are stretched to the extreme and its hard to believe the ramp job can continue without a pullback. But last week could be the snapback to the extreme rally that markets show just before collapse. The verticality to the extreme of the last four days is even greater than seen at the July bottom or the June bottoms. 60min Macd is overbought but what the bears don’t need to see is a small pullback that works off this overbought level but nevertheless I think any pullback should take the MACD back to the O line. None of the foreign markets showed any carryover from Friday’s action.
Checking charts I notice a fractal similarity to the action off the April high till now to the 2007 bear market with our current action being approximately the Sept 2008 area. The June double bottoms were equivalent to the Jan March 2008 doublebottom etc. etc.
I also saw a chart of corn from 2004 and noticed the similarity of the snapback rally just before it collapsed to what the stock market has experienced the last week; a slow choppy slightly uptrending bottom and then bam a multi-day ramp job that took out the previous top (ie SP 1090) in a false breakout and then reversed down hard. The one thing bears need to see now is an immediate hard reversal and not the continuation of a stair step pattern higher or mild pullbacks.

steveo77
13 years ago

Chaos at best, futures may have hit a top. Check my blog for details.

Anna
13 years ago

Memorial Day!!! you in a time warp hahhahahahha

http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/60-close-to-a-short-term-top-on-spx.html

pezhead9000
13 years ago

Lesson from Friday: calculate your stops carefully, too close and you lose out.
I shorted VNO friday after watching the 5 & 15min charts. 15 min moon shot trend line broke. I shorted via put options – stupidly or moronically – I set the stop too close to the high of the day. 10mins after shorting and it reversed and tagged the high of the day and just spiked a little enough to trigger my stop.
Today it is down 1.12%.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Anna
13 years ago

Nice TY yes 🙂

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

So length is what 15 points?? so that could be break below gap if it plays out. 1085??

anoopsan
13 years ago

10 points minimum.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Chop chop chop… are we going to break, or not? Not is my guess…

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Vixes are holding up far longer than i thought on today’s action but they just are not producing the pps drop needed or normal at these levels.

notice Rvix is 9.69 % and RUT is down 1.65% compared to vix @ 10.7 and spx is only down .89%

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yeah Jim,

It seems they are still propping the market up for awhile longer. How long is the question? With opx being next week, which is usually bullish, they do need to flush out some of the bulls before then.

We still have that 105.39 spy FP, which will be hit at some point. I just wonder if it will be this week, or next?

zstock7
13 years ago

BULL killing time…..I’m going to kill me some GOLD BULLS.
Shorting NEM,GDX,AEM.

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Pez, It takes time to know me. When I say to you…Your trade is going to be OK…It means, your trade is OK. I had been studying IYR for quite a few hours last week and figured it out. Sorry you jumped ship, before the profits.

Anna
13 years ago

and Lester closed his puts!

Anna
13 years ago

told the hobstas not to buy the pop but sell it , Vix told us the story

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That’s the way they plan it… squeeze everyone out first.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

yeah, it takes time to trust an avatar – nothing personal.
I had the right idea, right timing, poor execution

Anna
13 years ago

bounce to refresh (like the bulls do) and then down

Anna
13 years ago

yup told you that!

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Do you how many raving lunatic bulls there were last week and this weekend? I don’t mean just mildly bullish bulls but bullish to the extreme ones who were calling for a powerful rally. One of mysub services turned to a raving lunatic bull this weekend which is doubly hard to take (jaywiz has him listed as bearish. Not the case!!!! I am sure many on that list have swithced sides). I see McClaren the CNBC Gann expert who originally had Sept 1 as a high is now calling it a low and calling for a rally into Oct 1. Others saying the Eliades 419 week cycle due now will be another low as most others have been.
——% of stocks above 50day average got back to their August highs on Friday. This indicator never dropped to levels where important bottoms are seen. And the beauty of this is the 50 day average has been dropping so every lower snapback rally takes the market back above the 50 day average working off the oversold nature of this indicator before it hits its extreme levels seen at bottoms.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

On one message board, I have never seen so many outrageous bulls. The trader with the good record is still short and moderating his extreme bullishness. He still thinks there is chance to retest Friday’s highs. We’ll see how the market closes today.

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 futures violates the support line
LINK

Anna
13 years ago

so very true said the very same 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow… what an exciting day it was.

Robert
13 years ago

Nice pullback today. Would of liked to pull back to the 50dma but it is what it is. Looking for a nice rally tomorrow. Seasonals very strong to the upside. Rally cap on…………

pezhead9000
13 years ago

for GDX, is this the 4th attempt at 54.50? – a lot of volume in the last hour. A short here is a good call from an odds perspective

dreadwin
13 years ago

I went long near the end of the day for a retest of 1100 tomorrow. (I hope!)

zstock7
13 years ago

I’m looking to KILL to kill the BULL, not maim…GDX 50 exit.

Guest
Guest
13 years ago

These FPs work pretty well for value but has anyone noticed a time code? I am thinking something like before noon means days and after noon means weeks. Or 9-10 means hours, 10-11 means days, 11-12 means weeks, and so on.

zstock7
13 years ago

GDX short entry 54.5, HOD 54.53, I’m not going to maim this gold bull by eating it’s legs off, I’m going to Kill IT! exit 50
Shorted NEM and AEM just so’s I could kill me some more gold Bulls. Gawd, I hate gold bulls. Can you tell?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I never thought of that… interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Sorry I didn’t do a video update or new post yesterday gang. I’m having some computer problems with my desktop where all my programs are. I’m trying to move everything to a faster computer and it’s giving me fits.

I’m using my laptop as a backup, but it’s not setup with camtasia to record video’s. But, you did miss much as all I would have said was that nothing much has changed. I still see some chop action until this week is over with.

The main focus is around the turn date of the 12th, which is on a Sunday… meaning that a turn could happen this Friday or next Monday. While opx week is usually bullish, if we continue to chop around here and maybe even push up to the 1130 triple top level, then next week should be bearish.

If we chop here all week and don’t go up much, but instead pull back a little, then next week could be another leg higher. It would imply that we are in an ABC move up, and the 1130 would likely be taken out.

I’d rather see a small pullback for the B wave down now, and then a shorten C wave up into this Friday… which would complete the move and allow next week to be down. But, we might not get it that way? It’s hard too say at this point. Regardless, I still see this week choppy with no real direction either way.

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 futures before opening bell
LINK TO THE POST

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Hi zstock7, I short gold today, Bought DZZ. Gold had a 13 count on the Demark indicator. Hit the highs 3 times. I think it is a good short. Although seasonally September is a good month for Gold, may be not this time. I don’t think comsumers in India and China are buying gold at this high price.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Snoring…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

What’s that old saying… never short a dull market.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Hi zstock7, Please could you let me know if a bearish hanging man candlestick was formed 2 days ago?

I am also wondering why has IYR gone up so much, when real estate(or house prices) itself has been going down?

anoopsan
13 years ago

Leo this up move may not sustain for too long. I am expecting SPX to trade in a range of 1091 – 1105 : LINK

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yes San, I agree…

By this Friday I expect a move in one direction or the other. Our big turn date is over the weekend on the 12th, which means a move on Friday or Monday is likely. Which one is unknown?

We’ll either breakout to the upside and rally up to the 1130 triple top (and probably break it), or sell off hard to the 105.39 FP from last week.

Since next week is opx and usually bullish, the move down should come this week… but will it? I don’t know, but if it doesn’t go down this week, then next week should surprise everyone by selling off into opx instead of the usual rally to squeeze out the short. It would then be squeezing out the longs… which is rare, but does happen from time to time.

zstock7
13 years ago

Shorting FCX today.
http://zstock7.com/?p=3242

zstock7
13 years ago

GDX,NEM,AEM..shorts from yesterday, still in the positive. they aren’t cracking today, give it some time.

zstock7
13 years ago

FFIV, I can’t believe the market is giving me a second time to short this over valued stock

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