Weekend Update – Market Manipulation To Extreme!

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Friday afternoon update...

Looks like I "may" have figured out my computer problem? Let's give it more time first, but it seems to be running stable now.

Red

P.S. Have a good weekend everyone...

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Wednesday update...

No More Taking The Stairs UP!

(I made a mistake thinking today was Memorial Day in the video. Duh... it's Labor Day! Sorry).

Last week is a clear example of how well controlled and manipulated this market really is.  A normal market will take the stairs up (meaning it slowly makes gains every day), and the elevator down (meaning it usually falls up to 6 times as fast going down, when compared to up).  But last week the market took the elevator up too... why?  Was this normal, or manipulation?

Duh!  We all know the answer there... MANIPULATION!  No normal market rallies straight up like we seen last week.  While the market has always been controlled, the level of manipulation today far exceeds that of just as little as 2 years ago.

All this monopoly money that the gangsters are printing has changed the game dramatically.  The little guys don't stand a chance in this rigged game.  It's not the same as playing blackjack in Vegas... it's worst!  Of course we all know that the house wins 95% of the time or more, but at least in that game the house doesn't know what you have in your hands.

In the market, they can see in your hands by the about of open interest on the various strike prices for the expiring option... and they can also see where everyones' "stops" are placed at!  That's like the house looking at your cards in Vegas... absolutely insane!

So why do we continue to play this rigged game?  I dunno... stupid I guess?  While I was calling for a move back up to the FP of 111.17 (spy) last week, I had NO idea that the market would go straight up on a rocket ship like it did.  Talk about total B.S.... that certainly was!

There was NO reason... not fundamentally, technically, or elliottwave that could explain the move up we had last week.  This was done for one reason... to rob the bears!  Many of my online blogger friends were hurt very badly during that ramp job.  I was lucky that I didn't have any positions at the time, but many others did.

There were a few brave one's who were long the market, and they were rewarded greatly.  Being a bear, I just don't have the guts to go long in this depression we are in.  I'll go long when the spy hits 20.16, but in the meantime... I'll just sit out the rallies in between.  LOL

Moving on...

The last video I did I thought that we would sell off on Friday to the 105.39 FP, making a "B" wave down in an ABC move up to the 111.17 FP from many weeks back.  But instead, they decide to skip the "B" wave down and simply go straight up to the 111.17 print first.  That leaves next week to go down to the 105.39 FP level, and then... who knows?

This market is so rigged that virtually impossible to get a clear direction of where the next trend is going to be?  I thought we would go down to the Dow 8300 FP one week, and then the next week I changed opinion to going up to the DIA 118.16 FP... and now I'm clueless as to which one we will hit first?

Of course that's exactly how they planned it... to confuse everyone.  But, knowing the targets (by the FP they give us) we should be able to figure out which one they are going too first by using technically analysis.  However, TA's only work for as long as they allow them to work.

How long is that?  Just about long enough to get ever bull and bear positioned in the market happily, thinking they got the next move figure out... and then BAM, they pull a rabbit out of hat!  I wonder why I keep trying to figure this game out, as every time I think I got it mastered, the rules change.

Such is life I guess.  Walking in a mine field voluntarily isn't the brightest thing too do, but us traders do it every day I guess.  Why do we do it time and time again?  I guess it's just the same reason people buy lottery tickets every week... one day we'll hit the jackpot (or just go broke trying... LOL).

Now to the market...

Clearly, from looking at the charts, you can see that we are overbought on the daily now, as well as the 60 minute chart too.  So yes, we should sell off on Tuesday... but will we?  With the light volume expected all week, due mainly to it being a shorten time period because of Memorial Day on Monday, I'm not expecting a lot traders too be there to buy and sell.

So, if they plan on taking it back down to the 105.39 FP next week, it will be the institutions selling while the little guy is sleeping (just like it always is...), which makes you wonder about the Legatus meeting starting on the 9th?  Are we going to rally into the meeting, and sell off after... or will the 105.39 FP be the low going into it, with a several month rally afterwards?

From a political point of view, I believe the Democrats would like to rally into the November elections.  But, there is still plenty of time to go down to the 8300 print first, and rally the rest of the year.  I look at the weekly chart and it does look ready to go up into positive territory on the histogram bars.  I've said in many video's that I'd like to see several positive bars occur, and then a roll over into the abyss.

You will notice that the weekly chart rallied up to the 20 and 50 day moving average lines and stopped.  There is a ton of overhead resistance beyond the current level, but with Bernanke now pumping more stimulus into the market, and the big institutional gangsters (errr... I mean banksters) sitting on their hands waiting for the "green light" to hit the sell button again... I just don't think that resistance will hold them back if they want to go higher.

So what's the bottom line?  While we are short term overbought, the intermediate term shows the market turning up now.  Of course it could just as easily roll back down at anytime, but for now it appears they plan to rally for awhile.  I can't say it's going to be easy, but again... anything is possible.

However, even if we do go up a little more next week, we should turn around the 12th according to the SpiralDates chart... which would line up with a the Legatus meeting too.  It would give the gangsters enough time to cash their check during the first few days of the Pilgrimage.

Let's also not forget that America could be announcing that it's going to default on it's international debt before the 31st of this month (according to Benjamin Fulford).  If that happens, then we go down... if not, then I guess we go up?  I know that's not much help, but I can see bullish patterns forming now... even though my gut tells me they are going to surprise everyone and tank it hard.

So hang in there bears, I really don't think we are going up too much further next week.  If we get to 1130 area, that would be a triple top... which I don't see it breaking on the first try.  "IF" and that's a big "if", we do continue higher next week, I'd expect it to fall short of that triple top, or go up there and trade sideways for several days baiting all the bulls into thinking it's going to break out from the bull flag it would form... then turn her back down around the 12th.

By the way, the 12th is on a Sunday... so that would imply a "weekend event" to cause a sell off the following week.  What could that be I wonder?  A post 911 bear celebration... maybe?  You know they aren't going to crash it on September the 11th... but the week after is a different story.

If I had to guess (and that all I do anyway), I'd say we chop around that 1130 level next week doing nothing be eroding the time value of any options the bulls and bears have.  We might even do an intraday stop swept just above that level on September the 10th to clear out the bears just before the plunge.

Anyway gang, I'm just speculating here, as I don't know what they have planned... or where the market is going next week.  So I'll close for now and wish everyone success next week.

Red

150 COMMENTS

  1. I haven’t checked any of the blogs today or any weekend subscription info but currently crude oil is down nearly $1 from Friday and the euro is down hard from yesterday yet SP futures are slightly up. Something doesn’t jibe there. It was very depressing getting caught up in the moment last week and seeing a potential blastoff higher in every technical indicator but the long weekend has provided a nice dose of clarity and perspective. 4 day indicators are stretched to the extreme and its hard to believe the ramp job can continue without a pullback. But last week could be the snapback to the extreme rally that markets show just before collapse. The verticality to the extreme of the last four days is even greater than seen at the July bottom or the June bottoms. 60min Macd is overbought but what the bears don’t need to see is a small pullback that works off this overbought level but nevertheless I think any pullback should take the MACD back to the O line. None of the foreign markets showed any carryover from Friday’s action.
    Checking charts I notice a fractal similarity to the action off the April high till now to the 2007 bear market with our current action being approximately the Sept 2008 area. The June double bottoms were equivalent to the Jan March 2008 doublebottom etc. etc.
    I also saw a chart of corn from 2004 and noticed the similarity of the snapback rally just before it collapsed to what the stock market has experienced the last week; a slow choppy slightly uptrending bottom and then bam a multi-day ramp job that took out the previous top (ie SP 1090) in a false breakout and then reversed down hard. The one thing bears need to see now is an immediate hard reversal and not the continuation of a stair step pattern higher or mild pullbacks.

  2. The Cramer Code does imply a major meltdown from Sept 4 to September 15 (previously I had interpreted it to mean a June 18 to Sept 4 meltdown but that still might work as an important peak to peak as the illum. work in anagrams and riddles). The Sept 1930 stock market high was made on a double top which the 2010 stock market has probably already seen (June 18/21 and August 9)

  3. Lesson from Friday: calculate your stops carefully, too close and you lose out.
    I shorted VNO friday after watching the 5 & 15min charts. 15 min moon shot trend line broke. I shorted via put options – stupidly or moronically – I set the stop too close to the high of the day. 10mins after shorting and it reversed and tagged the high of the day and just spiked a little enough to trigger my stop.
    Today it is down 1.12%.

  4. Vixes are holding up far longer than i thought on today’s action but they just are not producing the pps drop needed or normal at these levels.

    notice Rvix is 9.69 % and RUT is down 1.65% compared to vix @ 10.7 and spx is only down .89%

  5. Yeah Jim,

    It seems they are still propping the market up for awhile longer. How long is the question? With opx being next week, which is usually bullish, they do need to flush out some of the bulls before then.

    We still have that 105.39 spy FP, which will be hit at some point. I just wonder if it will be this week, or next?

  6. Hi Pez, It takes time to know me. When I say to you…Your trade is going to be OK…It means, your trade is OK. I had been studying IYR for quite a few hours last week and figured it out. Sorry you jumped ship, before the profits.

  7. Do you how many raving lunatic bulls there were last week and this weekend? I don’t mean just mildly bullish bulls but bullish to the extreme ones who were calling for a powerful rally. One of mysub services turned to a raving lunatic bull this weekend which is doubly hard to take (jaywiz has him listed as bearish. Not the case!!!! I am sure many on that list have swithced sides). I see McClaren the CNBC Gann expert who originally had Sept 1 as a high is now calling it a low and calling for a rally into Oct 1. Others saying the Eliades 419 week cycle due now will be another low as most others have been.
    ——% of stocks above 50day average got back to their August highs on Friday. This indicator never dropped to levels where important bottoms are seen. And the beauty of this is the 50 day average has been dropping so every lower snapback rally takes the market back above the 50 day average working off the oversold nature of this indicator before it hits its extreme levels seen at bottoms.

  8. On one message board, I have never seen so many outrageous bulls. The trader with the good record is still short and moderating his extreme bullishness. He still thinks there is chance to retest Friday’s highs. We’ll see how the market closes today.

  9. Nice pullback today. Would of liked to pull back to the 50dma but it is what it is. Looking for a nice rally tomorrow. Seasonals very strong to the upside. Rally cap on…………

  10. These FPs work pretty well for value but has anyone noticed a time code? I am thinking something like before noon means days and after noon means weeks. Or 9-10 means hours, 10-11 means days, 11-12 means weeks, and so on.

  11. GDX short entry 54.5, HOD 54.53, I’m not going to maim this gold bull by eating it’s legs off, I’m going to Kill IT! exit 50
    Shorted NEM and AEM just so’s I could kill me some more gold Bulls. Gawd, I hate gold bulls. Can you tell?

  12. Sorry I didn’t do a video update or new post yesterday gang. I’m having some computer problems with my desktop where all my programs are. I’m trying to move everything to a faster computer and it’s giving me fits.

    I’m using my laptop as a backup, but it’s not setup with camtasia to record video’s. But, you did miss much as all I would have said was that nothing much has changed. I still see some chop action until this week is over with.

    The main focus is around the turn date of the 12th, which is on a Sunday… meaning that a turn could happen this Friday or next Monday. While opx week is usually bullish, if we continue to chop around here and maybe even push up to the 1130 triple top level, then next week should be bearish.

    If we chop here all week and don’t go up much, but instead pull back a little, then next week could be another leg higher. It would imply that we are in an ABC move up, and the 1130 would likely be taken out.

    I’d rather see a small pullback for the B wave down now, and then a shorten C wave up into this Friday… which would complete the move and allow next week to be down. But, we might not get it that way? It’s hard too say at this point. Regardless, I still see this week choppy with no real direction either way.

  13. Hi zstock7, I short gold today, Bought DZZ. Gold had a 13 count on the Demark indicator. Hit the highs 3 times. I think it is a good short. Although seasonally September is a good month for Gold, may be not this time. I don’t think comsumers in India and China are buying gold at this high price.

  14. Hi zstock7, Please could you let me know if a bearish hanging man candlestick was formed 2 days ago?

    I am also wondering why has IYR gone up so much, when real estate(or house prices) itself has been going down?

  15. Yes San, I agree…

    By this Friday I expect a move in one direction or the other. Our big turn date is over the weekend on the 12th, which means a move on Friday or Monday is likely. Which one is unknown?

    We’ll either breakout to the upside and rally up to the 1130 triple top (and probably break it), or sell off hard to the 105.39 FP from last week.

    Since next week is opx and usually bullish, the move down should come this week… but will it? I don’t know, but if it doesn’t go down this week, then next week should surprise everyone by selling off into opx instead of the usual rally to squeeze out the short. It would then be squeezing out the longs… which is rare, but does happen from time to time.

  16. We have about 70 million shares traded on the spy right now. There’s not likely to be any big selling until the volume comes back. The market is waiting on something, and just churning out the weak bulls and bears.

  17. Nice upside day as seasonals played out today. Sold at mid day and I’m glad I did. Bulls looked unconvincing today. Put back on my BEAR hat for tomorrow and looking for some downside. Would love to see 1080…..

  18. Another trading range topping box, which was seen at late April highs/Jan highs, has formed the last few days. Nothing really happened today. Could be all indices putting in wave 2s (stocks,euro,oil,$vix). I guess we need to wait till later when the foreign markets open to see how these indices trade. Cramer Code could imply a top here also. This is the key Cramer Code number:
    04:18:04 The first four occurs in front of the other numbers and is meaningless (by my guess) with the other numbers. But if one combines it with the other four, 09-08 is one of the possibities as well as 08-09 which was the August high and even 08-18 (which was the secondary high off the August 9 decline. Interesting so many different but useful dates are embedded in that number. Now to think of it, 09-08 is 30 days from the August high and 90 degrees from the June 8 low. Tomorrow is 87(ie 1987) tds from May 6 flash crash. Could we have a crash window opening (87 to 92 (911) tds from 05-06-10?

  19. I’m waste deep in Gold Bull blood–I slaughtered so many of them today. I found another short sell
    CMG, I can see the exit 158, clear as day…”I can see for miles and miles”
    here’s the chart, maybe you can see the 158 exit as clearly as I see it…or maybe you need 10 more years experience.
    http://zstock7.com/?p=3254

  20. AAII latest survery: 43% bulls 31%bears. Quite a turnaround from last week and two weeks ago when only 20% bulls were recorded. Of course that happens when the Hindenburg Omen is discussed endlessly everywhere and Charles Nenner makes the TV rounds touting Dow 5000. (after G-S books his appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg)

  21. They did their usual thing. Hold the markets up until Wednesday so the AAII crowd gets bullish and then drop it. I can’t believe some of the sentiment I am seeing. I am seeing people bullish who I have never seen bullish before. The All Star Timing guy is saying there won’t be a crash this fall and is saying Gold is in wave 3of 3 while Hulbert is indicating gold timers are excessively bullish. Looking at the weekly gold chart, it looks like a steady weak terminal rally. Plus, there is a 40-41week high high gold cycle and this is week 40 from the last week (admittedly I haven’t been following gold too closely)
    And then there is that Vulcan video below where the guy is talking about the upcoming bear extinction. I think this AAII poll is understating current bullishness. And Nenner was talking about Dow 5000 in a few years; apparently he is calling for a rally despite his predictions of an August high in April.

  22. It looks like the euro has been freefalling since the front-man in chief took the extension of Bush tax cuts off the table although the euro has bounced a little the last hour. The Bollinger bands on the euro were pinching hard and BBwidth is at its lowest since April. The BBs are tightening on the stock indices also. QQQQs tagged their upper BB today and then retreated. $rut ‘s upper BB is now below its Friday high. This does not have the appearance of the commencement of a new upthrust in the markets.
    Fund managers will now be running out the same exit trying to get what capital gains they have left at the lowered Bush era rate. There could be selling all the way into the end of the year ala 2000 when investors had large capital gains they needed to harvest. All the bulls were calling for bear extinction this week based on the front man in chiefs speech today when he would unveil all of these economic proposals that would launch the markets higher. Sell on the news.

  23. IYR is getting some sort of preferential treatment from the gov’t. (bailout) It makes it a little harder to figure out the short entry, each cycle.That’s why PSA, the next short sell price is always going to be a little higher than the last short sell price, and carry that over to SPG,VNO…Just have to treat it that way, because of the ( bailout)

  24. old thread…
    IYR is getting some sort of preferential treatment from the gov’t. (bailout) It makes it a little harder to figure out the short entry, each cycle.That’s why PSA, the next short sell price is always going to be a little higher than the last short sell price, and carry that over to SPG,VNO…Just have to treat it that way, because of the ( bailout)

  25. Hi DCAC, GLD, can really mess up my GDX short, if the market decides to send GLD above 1300. There’s enough money supply out there to do that, and RTH is staying strong, that’s not helping GLD go down. Every so often, GLD crashes, and in turn crashes RTH, and vice versa.

  26. Yeap…. it’s all made up BS Woody! You know, I know it, and so does everyone else. But the crack addict stock trader doesn’t care. He just wants another fix… as in a move in one direction or the other that he can make some money from.

    I’m beginning to think the correction is going to be delayed until after the election is over. Ever since Bernanke promised to “do whatever it takes” in his speech a week or so ago, this market has rallied hard. I’d say another shot of morphine was given to the market then (aka… more stimulus).

    This is going to set up 2011 as an absolutely horrible year. With no more elections until late 2012, I’d say this market is going straight down next year.

  27. We are in “no man’s land” and it really could go either way Jim. I’m leaning bullish because of the elections coming up in November, and of course the comments made by Bernanke.

    Don’t forget about that DIA 118.16 print. That very well could be our final upside target. It might hit the first of next year, like we hit a high in January of this year.

  28. hi red, rk here i read all that things that there is an “error post” posted by me &……………………
    actually i usually use my cell phone to read (& post) ur blog & for trading too.it might be my cell phone problem which i tried to post my comment 1 day earlier but ‘disqus’ gave me message that there is prob. to post the comment, after trying it 2-3 times i giveup my try…..then i try to read it again next day & to read clearly i chose the comments, “sort by newest first” then that error is appeared.. but i couldnt mention the fact b’cas my net validity end that day midnight & i renew it about 8-9 days later…..ok i think that error is not spam it must be disqus message. but i dont kno why it post on ur blog? insteed on my email id …..ok, sorry for all that stuff
    i really dont know much about software so u will be sure that there is no any harmfull intensions.i keep following u by my pc or from any other sources whenever i get time…as i work in shifts it is possible only in night shift to follow u……
    too long post na…..sorry again… keep ur good work continue…..

  29. No problem Rk… it’s all good. I don’t usually ban anyone. I even give the operators a lot of lead way, as they are just doing their job spying on me. I don’t care though, as I’m not “in the loop”, and fully understanding the ritual games anyway. So it just doesn’t matter either way.

  30. Hi zstock7,

    IYR, SPG and VNO are down today. Technically these charts don’t look good. I would like to go short. You mentioned about govt preferential treatment, which I have no control over, hence I am hesistant. Would you short IYR here? The market is up today but IYR is down. Would you short here?

  31. Great trading day. Bulls have to be dissapointed with the gap and crap. 7 states were not included in the claims report, anything to hide the truth. Keeping my BEAR cap on tomorrow. Market looks fragile……

  32. There were reversal bars everywhere today. Particularly the $VIX and QQQQ had a black bar (Cobra’s prophecy of the black bar). Crude oil and copper were down decently—even the euro was down (not far from a multi-week low). Lower RSI divergence on the 60 min chart at the high and MACD lines couldn’t roll over to the upside.

  33. IYR and GDX more often than not, can be calculated using info off of yahoo finance, to bring the risk of going long or short to nearly zero.
    That’s what trading is all about. Zero risk vs 50/50. I prefer to trade at zero risk, although I still do 50/50 ones. nobody’s perfect.

  34. Arrggh… stupid desktop is still freezing on me! I’ve be working on it for a week now, and I’ve moved everything over to a new motherboard, power supply, case, etc… But it’s still freezing?

    I was trying to do a video update, but it froze in the middle of the recording again. Sorry gang. I might have too try and do it with my laptop until I can figure out this problem. I think I have some bad RAM, as the problem is intermittent.

    I build my own computers for a hobby, so it’s not “operator” error… it’s something for real, and I think it’s my ram? I’ll keep working on it, but in the meantime my posts might have too be done from the laptop. Not that I can’t use it to type the text for the posts, but I use the desktop for the video recording.

    Anyway, just have patience with me. It doesn’t look like I’ve missed anything anyway, as the market is still chopping around. I am expecting some selling next week though, as it’s an opx week… which is usually bullish, but I think it’s going to do the opposite and sell off into next Friday.

    We still have that 105.39 spy FP from a week ago, and I think it will be hit next week. After that though, I’m not sure? Being that the election is coming up in November, I’m leaning toward a rally happening instead of a sell off.

    We still have the DIA 118.16 FP on the upside, and the Dow 8300 print on the downside… so which one do we hit first? I just don’t know at this point, but I do believe the upside print would do the most damage to everyone (ever bear for sure!), as also surprise everyone.

    I remember an old friend posting that he was told that TPTB plan to “game” the massive Head and Shoulders pattern… which means a rally instead of a sell off. This could be a last ditch effort by the gangsters to rally the market to new highs, before they crash it down to new lows in 2011.

    Think politics for a moment, and you can put two and two together. A rally now would help the Democrats get re-elected again, and that’s what the Obama team wants. After the election for the senate and house seats, then next election won’t be until November of 2012. That gives them almost 2 years to rob the sheep with another crash, and then a rally into late 2012 for the presidential election.

    The gangsters would make Billions on the sell off, and be able to buy up company assets for pennies on the dollar when the market takes out the 666 spx, March 2009 low. It’s all planned months and years in advance.

    Let’s also not forget that they plan on increasing the price of gasoline to about $4.00 a gallon in November, per the Bilderburg meeting that was held a few months ago. Now, that doesn’t guarantee that the stock market will rally, but usually if the cost of oil goes up (or stays the same, and the oil companies just increase the cost of gas) the overall market will go up as Exxon, BP, Mobil, Chevron, etc… increase in value.

    Again, no guarantee on that, as the market could go down while the cost of gas goes up, but usually the market will go up with oil, as it means that the oil companies are making more profit. Just speculation here, but I’m just trying to put the pieces together and figure out the next big move.

    Your input is welcome….

  35. Boatload o Charts

    Enjoy, Sign up as a follower. The new moon is acting, the prior ratio chart extreme values have pretty much clocked out although a day or three more of Frog Boil could certainly occur.

    Black swan are delivered by cruise missile on the weekends and holidays.

    I rarely do the XLF chart, but first time I put the PRS 133 on it and it looks bearish.

    I think HBB will continue to move money around, ramping particular issues, hitting short stops, and then after enough bears are just ready to “wait this one out” a few near limit down days in a row, maybe 3 of a 5 day week.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/boatload-ocharts.html

  36. I finally got a video recorded and uploaded… after half a dozen tries! I’m not sure if I’ve fixed my computer problems or not, but so far… so good. I had this new computer set to overclock the quadcore 2.83 gightz CPU to 3.41, and that may have been the problem?

    I say “may”, as it was still freezing on the slower dualcore 3.0 gightz computer it was previously on, and that computer wasn’t overclocked? So that makes me wonder why I was having problems on it too.

    Anyway… a new video is up now. Just refresh the page.

  37. “Can i post personal charts from Stock charts here?”

    Is that a technical question Jim? Or are you just asking me if it’s OK to post charts? If so, yeah… post any chart you like. I don’t mind. You guys should know by now that I’m pretty easy going, and let anyone post any chart or link they want. So post away…

  38. You’ll learn a lot about what’s really going on when you start watching the various video’s on their site. I’ve watched over 40 hours of video’s, and watched some of them more then once.

  39. SP had a 9-11 close ie 1109.55(10) with the high of the week at 1110. Today 09-10-10 is 1 month 1day from from the 08-09-10 high and 1 year 1 day from 09-09-09 date which was an insignificant date but I have found it as a midpoint for a few cycles such as 666 days from the October 10,2008 orthodox/financial crisis low. There is a 27 day turn cycle due today but this cycle has been muted quite frequently lately but it had an impact as a freefall cycle at the Jan highs and during the week of May 20. The 13 day low cycle which has been hitting regularly is due Sept 15. It looks like the world premiere of “The Catalyst” could be the catalyst. China moved up the release of some economic reports for this weekend so I guess we only have to wait for the futures to open Sunday to see the effect. 60 min Macd lines refuse to budge higher for SPX and the $rut,small caps are lagging like they did at early August high and $sox index has already renewed its decline. Transports putting in the topping trading box similar to its late April and early August highs. Crude oil was up today and shot up to its 50day average and the main reason indices were up today. Euro continues to go sideways with BBs remaining narrow. When the euro begins its next decent, the heavy hitting will soon follow.

  40. There should be selling next week, and it could go down to the 105.39 FP by next Friday. Some bad news released over the weekend would be the perfect “catalyst” to start the selling.

  41. Today is day 7 of the rally off the lows in late August where there have been 7 consecutive closes higher than 4 closes earlier. It should turn the next trading session (or two) if it doesn’t want to confirm the start of a new bull leg up (9consecutive closes higher). Once we get to 9 there should be a reversal anyway just like we got a reversal on a 9 downcount in late August (off the decline from the early August high).
    I would get more trading bearish if the daily MACD historograms started to drop. Also this is day 4 from the $vix closing below its lower BB. It did this on April 19, 4 days before the market topped. It also did this on Jan 11 and the stock market topped out in a few days. (chopped sideways and until it headed down hard on Jan 19)

  42. It was a snoozer as expected. Tradition held up as 9/11 trade brought no selling. Held all my shorts and looking for a dip Monday. Banks should get bad news this weekend. Have a great weekend folks…..

  43. Hello Red/Anna, Thanks for the great blogs. About Anna’s GOLD short, I trust her more than Mahendra! Check out what he posted about the metals and the Markets, man I am confused.!!! You guys/gals have it right, trade what you see and use stopps. Regards, pzy5t0

    WEEK NEWLSETTER FROM 6-10 SEPETMBER

    GOLD/SILVER

    Last two weeks we were absolutely wrong on metals predictions. During both weeks’ Tuesday (Mars) turnaround occurred in gold and silver prices from their lows. The previous week gold jumped from $1,211 to $1,238 and this week again from $1,233 to $1,251.

    Last week gold made high of $1,259 and silver $19.97. It is a big lesson for me because I never gave Mercury that important role in metals’ trends. I hope that from here on I will able to predict far better in metal trends during volatile times.

    This week Mercury and the combination of Mars/Saturn will create volatilities so traders should be very careful. This is a warning sign for buyers as well sellers because if buyers don’t book profit then they may miss the big pie and if short sellers go aggressive with high leverages then they can also lose as this week is still quite uncertain. I don’t want to predict anything for this week but in short gold and silver will move both sides aggressively.

    Metal stocks will have final laugh before they start falling with metals any time after 15 September.

    I don’t want to predict specific of highs and lows during this week (they won’t able to move much higher from last week $1263 and $20.09) but surely I’d like to warn gold and silver traders not to trade big positions at this stage and the best advice I can give buyers is that you should be 100% out from future contract and if you don’t like to go out of 100% then sell all your buying in futures market and buy calls for December or next year so if any drastic fall comes you don’t lose what you made in last few years.

    One thing is for sure: gold and silver has very few days left before they correct, and yes they can correct substantially. Sun transit is guiding me that both these metals can fall between 10 to 30% in the next 38 trading days.

    For intraday traders in gold/silver – Monday, Thursday and Friday sell on the rises and Tuesday and Wednesday buy on the falls. This week planetary position indicates that from late Thursday 9 Sep metals will start moving down.

    HUI index will top out this week around 495 and from her precious metal stocks will move down big.

    STOCK MARKET

    Last week global markets remained sideways but USA market performed far better and this was a confirming sign for us that in the coming time USA equity market will outperform all major markets. Yes India will be one of the markets which should be following USA market neck to neck. The unfortunate part of the India market is that it doesn’t have many listed companies in alternative energy stock as well as uranium stocks. There are few companies like Suzlon, Indowind, Stone India, Moser Bear, XL Telcome, Pael, Sujana Tower and Websol but USA and China has lot of these companies.

    Lately I have not been mentioning Canadian markets but keep in mind they have a large number of listed companies in uranium, lithium, rare metals and alternative energy stocks so surely the Canadian uranium mining sector will be rocking along with alternative energy stocks in coming bubble time.

    If you have not, I strongly recommend that you start planning very seriously about the coming bull market of historic proportion, and about the coming bubbles in (alternative energy) stocks. Start preparing a list of these stocks, and start adding them and finish buying these stocks by the end of October.

    This week markets will remain positive. Money will keep coming into the markets so we are not recommending shorting stocks. If you’d like to play the short side then buy put options in the markets. USA market has already absorbed the negative trends so far but some weakness will come after 15 October because overall financial market sentiment will get negative but you should be getting ready for buying opportunity during that weakness without thinking too much on the current weak trend. No doubt on Dow touching 42000 and Indian market 48000 in the next five years.

    TREASURY BOND

    This week bond prices will rebound strongly but the overall trend in the bond market will remain sideways. On the higher side you should be getting out and take selling opportunity but buy during next week as one huge up move is pending in 30 year bonds.

  44. All my signals say short now. The EPS says short now. It’s all lined up, just like 10 times before this… and yet my signals, I imagine, are 100% not going to work properly. Therefore, I truly think It has to be a long.

  45. HI Pzy5to
    Thank you so much! I do think we retrace on gold to around 1080 before resuming their march higher ;-D
    I am long TLT for next week as it’s due for a nice bounce according to my charts Thanks for the update on Mahendra!
    Much appreciated 🙂

  46. I also wrote my post and that Mercury is now moving forward instead of backwards ( a huge move is coming ;-))

    I agree Oct. good buying opp. 🙂

  47. I found a chart pattern, I know how to win on. You’ve probably seen them, but didn’t know what to do with them. They are based on what looks like a fake print. ( I think I just got Red’s attention) mention fake print and Red starts rubbing his hands together…Am I right?
    SYNA, chart
    http://zstock7.com/?p=3289

  48. Last Sunday I Opined about a possible Frog Boil based on a proprietary indicator, the VIX/VXN Volatility Ratio.

    Here is that Opine. Although prickly, not to be confused with porcupine.
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/holy-grail-part-2-vixvxn-volatility.html

    And a new indicator. The PM Summation. This is a sub-component of my “Fear Factor” indicator.

    It draws nice trendlines. When money runs out of bonds, where will it go to?

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/frog-boil-tasty-if-you-catch-it-at.html

    Cash?

    Real Estate (yeah right)

    precious metals

    US stocks

    China stocks

    Art work

    More Harley’s to sit in the garage

    Junk bonds

    Well look above, first the 20 point drop to get the frogs to jumps into the pot, then a spastic increase in “heat” with occasional relief in temperature to convince the frogs to stay in the pot while tiring them out in duration. Note the orange line the 38 Fibo as defined in the blue notes, which seems to be Gandolf saying “you shall not pass”. Let the battle commence.

    And here is the 9-12-2010 Chart showing the “Frog Boil” in action

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/frog-boil-tasty-if-you-catch-it-at.html

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