Wednesday, June 19, 2024

The Bear Squeeze…

Thursday Update...

Red

________________________________________________________________________________

Wow, what a rally!

I have too admit that I was doubting the bulls there for awhile, and was ready to eat crow on my call of a move to the FP of 111.17 spy... but today's action makes it look like that level could still be hit.  Of course that doesn't mean we are going straight up there... without a pullback, and we may have that pullback this Friday?

We had a FP of 105.39 spy today that I seen on my charts, but it disappeared too quickly to screen capture it.  Fortunatly, Anna caught it and here is the link for it.  Woody and Shaan also seen it, so it's a downside target for sure... the "when" is just something I'm guessing at.

Because the Non-Farm Payroll is out Friday morning, I get the feeling that it will be bad... which will cause the sell off to the FP level.  The other reason is the open interest on the calls and puts for this Friday's opx... which leads me to believe they will pin it between 105 and 106 area.  So the FP of 105.39 is spliting the difference, and may be the ideal spot for the crooks (errr.... market makers) to close it, so they don't have to pay out on all the "puts" that expire this week.

Of course this was just a normal technical bounce and the fact that opx was this Friday had nothing to do with (and the Sun is really a big ball of ice too... LOL).  We all know the truth there... Yes, we needed this rally to squeeze out the shorts, but the timing seems to happen around opx a lot?

Ok, from looking at the charts from today, I see a bull flag on the 60 and 15 minute... meaning that tomorrow could gap up quickly in the morning to squeeze out today's new shorts, but it should turn back down and close flat or lower.  That's a big "could", and not a "will" gap up... as the market is very overbought on the short term right now.

Usually a doji will follow such a large up day, but with the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims out in the morning tomorrow, the market could just reverse and gap down?  There is no way to know if the numbers are going to be good or bad?  One the FP tells us that they are going down at some point soon, and it's usually within 1-2 days on the intraday FP's.  Will this one be different?  I don't know?

But right now the open interest, and the FP tells me that we are likely going to hit 105.39 by this Friday's close.  No guarantees... on speculation on my part.  The charts are saying that we go up to finish the bull flag, but we did pop into the close today... so maybe that fulfilled the pattern?

There isn't any set rule on how high you go from a bull flag, only that it will likely pop higher at some point.  Well, we popped higher into the close... is that it?  The 15 minute charts aren't giving us any clues as they are rising up toward the zero level on the histogram bars, but the Full STO's are almost overbought.

Then the 60 minute chart is about peaked out now, and could turn down at any point.  Since it's the more powerful charts, that leads me to believe that any pop higher tomorrow won't last and the day should end with a doji or down.  The daily chart is pointing up now, so that tells me that we will likely go up next week, but that doesn't mean we won't sell off for a "B" wave down, if we are in an ABC (wave 2) up now... with a final target of the 111.17 spy FP level.

Of course this assumes the daily chart doesn't turn back down if we sell off on Friday... which I don't think it will on only a "one day sell off".  That would leave the 3 day weekend to calm down the bad NFP numbers and a rally back up next week could happen.

I'm basing this on the charts I see now, and things could changes of course, but I think that we need a positive close on the weekly chart before a large sell off.  Having 4 straight weeks down without an UP week is rare, and if we close down this week then that will make week four.

Ok, that's about all I got for now... good luck everyone.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago

Chaikin money flow says this is distribution. My “guess is doji tomorrow and Friday, or slightly down. Should cross into the red mid next week.

http://screencast.com/t/NTk5MjZiYjct

Robert
13 years ago

Wow, what a beautiful squeeze on the perma bears. I love it when a plan works. I still have my rally cap on for another day……

Jayhawk91
13 years ago

I’m sure you have seen this one Leo, but just in case. Gold to 3400 FP?

http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/1e959e77-0241-45ba-9b74-6c3f332e622d

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks Jay, actually I had several people tell me about it, but I didn’t have a copy of print… so now I do. Thanks again.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

TLT and the Japanese Yen (at least FXY) are tracking each other almost identically. Yen was crushing the dollar leading up to 1987 crash.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think you will get your downside break of the channel on Fridays’ Non-Farm Payroll report San. I think we’ll go to the FP of 105.39 spy as some more panic sets in.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Bad News and negative divergence can make the bears happy. But if the news is good negative divergence will vanish.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Unrelenting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

They don’t call it a “bear squeeze” just for fun… they really mean it!

zstock7
13 years ago

I think IYR can go 2% to 4% higher from here, ( or not) I’m taking small short positions, BXP,EQR

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think a lot of bears and bulls are forgeting, or ignoring the Non-Farm payroll report tomorrow. They are assuming it is good, and won’t affect the market.

Wouldn’t it surprise everyone if it came out horrible? A lot of new bulls would get crushed right here.

While I still think we could go up to the FP of 111.17 spy next week, we should still have a “B” wave down in this presumably ABC (wave 2) up…

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

I think we are going to get toasted tomorrow. the numbers will be better than expected. probably manipulated as usual.

The housing number today surprised me along w/ mfg yesterday.

Who is buying??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I’m thinking the opposite Jim. I think everyone now assumes that this rally has factored in the numbers, and tomorrow will be a “non-event” day.

But, tomorrow opx (on the weekly’s) and they will pin the market where it makes them the most money. Look how many calls are sitting at the 107 level…

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/options.asp?symb=spy&sid=9864&time=8&bars=2&bars=3&bars=1

I don’t think we will close above 107 tomorrow…

zstock7
13 years ago

2 times before, I nailed to within 6 cents where to short IYR. I’d rather not talk about the other 100 times.
anyway, here’s a chart on VNO.
http://zstock7.com/?p=3203
If ( big if) VNO hits 90, that’s exactly when IYR tops for SEPT…Da Dum!

pezhead9000
13 years ago

Is VNO going to break above 86? This is the 3rd attempt.

Robert
13 years ago

Love the upside today. Took off my rally cap now. My bear cap is now on and I’m looking for some ugly numbers tomorrow. The bulls are giddy again and its time for a reality check. It does seem like the market wants to go up no matter what the numbers are. Thats what stops are for.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh page for update….

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Can the fast line on the 60min MACD get any higher? MACD is higher here than the last time it was at 1090 leaving a lot of room on the downside. It will be interesting to see if it can really gap higher tomorrow. 20 week average at 1098 will provide cover. One of these days these big upside days will be reversed by an ever larger downside day ala 1987 or 2008.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Here are some cycles for tomorrow. Sept 3 will be 27 days from August 7 which was 666 days from October 10,2008 financial crisis low. July 8,2009 low to Feb 5,2010 was 147 trading days and Feb 5 low to Sept 3 is 147 trading days. SP closed at 1090.10. The Sp closed around this level ie (1092) on 09-10-01 before it plummeted. Todays date is 09-02-10. There is also a connection to May 6 that some of you might know. But I just can’t see how a major low can come in on this date with the technicals as they are or a major meltdown unless its one of those initiation thrust downside days. Its also a fib 377 tds from March 2009 lows as Jaywiz has been mentioning and it will be 92 (11) trading days from the April 26 high.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Scratch the May 6 connection. It was last month and the next one comes later in September.

zstock7
13 years ago

VNO should be a short now, but the other holdings in IYR, I believe are headed a little higher, which in turn may make VNO head a little higher.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago

Unloading my longs today.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

111.17 spy sounds about right today. 🙁

pezhead9000
13 years ago

VNO & IYR have a divergence with the OBV, price making highs but OBV is not. Something to watch.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

Is 110.99 the best we’re gonna get? :/ Looks like we’re pointing downward now…

pezhead9000
13 years ago

VNO bouncing off 86 on the 5min chart

pezhead9000
13 years ago

VNO having a tough time – this is the 3rd shot at breaking 86

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow gang…

I was wrong that call. I thought we’d go down first and then rally to 111.17 spy. But it looks like we’ve be on a rocket the last 3 days, and 105.39 will have too wait until next week.

Total manipulation these last 3 days. Those job’s numbers will be revised next week for sure. More bullshit…

anoopsan
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

This is me at work gang…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj7hIDEN21Q&feature=related

… just waiting on the market to move!

DrJim
DrJim
13 years ago

Red Whats with the 2 years ago post for the past few days by “Mwalime Daudi”

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Absolutely no one wants to sell huh. No profit taking, no thing. Just keep riding the vertical bull express cause the Taxpayer is paying for your ticket.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Huh? You lost me? What post are you talking about? Who is Mwalime Daudi?

Garstein
Garstein
13 years ago

We hit 110.99 today’s high….That may very well be as close to the 111.17 we’re looking for….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Could be? They don’t always hit it exactly. Sometimes they fall short, or overshoot a bit… but the way the market is creeping back up now, they could push up to it before the close today.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

As always, a lot of shady bid jumping going on when it tries to tick down.

DrJim
DrJim
13 years ago

After I refreshed the page for the new posts it was gone. It has appeared at the top of the posts, off and on, for the past two days – with an indication that the post was 2 years ago. Has anyone else noticed this?

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

I forgot 1930 market topped out on September 3. It bottomed late June and rallied into Sept 3. It dropped harder then and then rebounded harder. From Sept 3 it dropped to the 1929 stock crash lows in the fall. July 9 2009 to Feb 5 2010 lows to Sept 3== George Lindsay low-low high cycle? TLT and $fxy (yen) put in big barred hollow reversal candles so far.
The market could go higher today and get a divergence on 60 min RSI. I typed that to hopefully jinx the market.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

went short VNO – pray for me argentina

zstock7
13 years ago

old thread, SKF is about to break to the upside. Maybe Monday if not, then surely Tuesday. The bands on my overnight charts are stretched to their limits.

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