Monday Update...
We hit the FP of 114.18 spy... now what?
Red
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Will The Market Crash On Monday?
I don't know? Â But I do expect heavy selling all week long. Â Whether it starts on Monday or waits until after the Fed meeting on Tuesday, is unknown? Â But my gut tells me it will start on Monday... after Obama speaks.
Right now the market is looking for more morphine (Quantitative Easing Part Two... ie, MONEY) to keep it alive, but I don't think it's going to get any.
There are too many signs pointing to a sell off, instead of a rally. Â There is the new Wallstreet movie (Money Never Sleeps), and the last Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it, 1987! Â The first Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it too, 1929! Â On top of that, the Legatus Pilgrimage ends on Monday the 20th, and this time the market has run up into the meeting.
The last meeting early this year in February the 4th-6th had the market going down for 4 weeks into the meeting. Â The opposite is true this time, as the market has been going up for the last 3-4 weeks, into this September 9th-20th Legatus Pilgrimage.
Also, there is the report from Ben Fulford that there might be some announcement from the government concerning the possible default of the international debt that the US owes the rest of the world. Â There is also the fact that the Federal Reverse will be bankrupt before the end of the year.
Who knows what other surprises could pop up next week? Â We could start WW3... I surely hope not, but anything is possible. Â Some event is likely going to be blamed as the catalyst for the coming crash, but it's really just what the charts say. Â We are getting ready to start a bunch of wave 3's down, in elliottwave terms. Â So the market is ready to sell off anyway, and doesn't need a reason. Â But, you know the government is going to create a reason for the sell off.
As for Monday, it's possible that we go up into Obamas' speech at noon (est... I think?). Â If so, then the target could be the 114.18 spy FP (possible FP?) that we got Friday morning. Â I say "possible" FP, as I don't have a screen shot of it to see if it was a sharp spike to that level (which would indicate a FP), or a steady rise that matches up with the rally that occurred in the ES, which took it to about 1130 before selling off some prior to the open.
If it matches with the ES rising, then it could have been a real print as the 1130 area on the ES could be about 114.18 on the spy... but I can't say for sure? Â So, just keep that target in mind if we open up on Monday. Â I'd estimate that to be about 1140 spx, falling short of the 1150 area that many others are looking for.
I know that Mr. TopStep (Tim Haefke) stated that the ES could go up to 1148 (about 1154 spx), taking out a ton of buy stops in that area. Â Could it happen? Â Tim doesn't think so... and neither do I. Â I'm sure Tim doesn't follow the FP's like I do, so he doesn't know about the 114.18 FP from Friday.
However, he did mention 2 upside levels that will be the next magnet target should the market want to go up a little more. Â The first target he called for his video was 1135.90 ES, and the next one was 1148.10, which he doesn't think will be hit. Â I agree with that, and I believe that the lower target of 1135.90 ES would line up nicely with the 114.18 spy FP level.
So, thinking like a wallstreet gangster here... if I were them, I'd take it up to 1135.90 ES (114.18 spy) on Monday morning to squeeze out all the bears that went short on Friday, and then tank it after Obama speaks. Â This would trap a lot of bulls expecting QE2 to provide the next rally up, and not allow any bears to get short in a great spot. Â All the bears would throw in the towel and go long, expecting a ride to 1150 or 1170 spx.
That breakout would also have the amateur bulls getting long too, while the pro's get short (actually, I think they've been getting short for the last week or so). Â As Danny Riley said in one of his video's with Mr. TopStep... when the bears go long, it's time to get short! Â I agree 100%! Â (P.S... that should be Monday!).
Ok, so that about sums it up... I'm looking for a possible move up to 114.18 spy on Monday, and a sell off the rest of the week. Â We still have that 105.39 spy FP from a few weeks ago, which could be the downside target for the first leg down in this move. Â After that? Who knows? Â We'll cross that road when we get there...
Red
wow red, you are really paranoid haha, I do think there is some small scale manipulation in the markets, and perhaps on occasion something of a greater magnitude. I had been trading some manipulation signals I was seeing with near 100% accuracy for several months, never losing on a trade and making small money (I wasn’t confident it was going to work forever, so I bet small). I had figured out the basic algorithm for how the signals were generated and what they meant. However, it just kept working. Then suddenly back a few weeks ago, the signals stopped coming in. Very odd. It was like everything went quiet. The only event that coincided with the stoppage was the ending of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs prop trading groups, so at this point, my theory was that one of those firms was behind it. I’ll let you know if it returns.
Only 7 of the 30, dow 30 components show any leadership, and this is on very light volume. This is a very bearish signal. ( here are the 7 leaders, CAT,DD,CVX,KFT,KO,MCD,T). 3 of those 7 are JUNK FOOD.
I heard my first rumors that OCT earnings are going to be good. Keep this info tucked away for awhile, and then use it as the NOV elections get closer.
A good read…Red.
Rumors… well I just don’t believe they plan to rally this market. Too many signs show it going down next week. Of course we could simply go down to the 105.39 spy FP, putting in a higher low, and then rally back up. I doubt it thou… but anything is possible.
Thanks…
🙂
Yes… please do let me know if you see those “manipulation signals” again. If you don’t want to post them on the blog, you can always email them to me. I have regular updates from others that I can’t share the information on the blog, so I’d do the same for your info if you wished? Of course I still share my overall view and FP’s on the blog, just not always the sources that lead me to that conclusion.
REd LOL how many times have you posted this picture and headline? LOL I have lost count. IMHO it could go either way 50/50 break out or break down
My new post up today soon
Let’s speculate and say we are at 990 on OCT 16th, with the elections 2 weeks away, all the polls confirm, the republicans will capture the house…Do you really want to be short during OCT earnings season? That’s all I’m trying to say.
Hey Red,
Check this out-
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18239/a-history-of-autumn-declines-in-the-down-industrials
Hi Anna, I hope you’re right about 50/50.
I agree that it could go either way Anna, but my gut tells me down. Of course my gut isn’t as good as yours, but I get one right every now and then.
🙂
Great link Pramod… thanks.
Schaeffer’s Monday Morning outlook is pretty bullish for the markets in general….
I’m looking for a peak either when Obama speaks at noon Monday, or right before the FOMC meeting on Tuesday… and then a sell off to start.
Monday should be bullish in the morning, and depending on what Obama says, will determine whether the selling starts after he speaks or wait until after Bernanke speaks.
It could happen on Monday or wait till Tuesday? I don’t know which, but if it tags that FP of 114.18 spy on Monday, around the time Obama is speaking, then I think that’s the high before a sell off.
I’ll be looking for that print to occur on either Monday or Tuesday, and then the selling to start. Which day? I don’t know… but what Obama or Bernanke says is likely to be the start of the selling.
Sorry Pramod,
I already posted this everywhere, this morning.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/decline.png
Now I’m very suspicious about a downturn. Nov. elections and OCT earnings, should get a market run up. Dow 11,800. That’s why next week better be down, so I can throw out Dow 11,800 again.
I’m surprised how many are still bullish. Just watched Jeff Kohlers weekly video and he’s predicting a breakout on the upside as well, go figure
Dow Jones futures before opening bell
Match the 114.18 spy FP level up with the DOW… about what level is it there?
Here’s an interesting video posted on HOB by Jestex…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc6xUj7ujYg
Not that any one person is always correct, but Atilla has been calling for the OEX to peak at 525 before any real selling. Well today it’s at 514 and climbing.
Again, that FP of 114.18 spy will likely line up perfectly with a 525 OEX level. I don’t know Atilla personally, but he has called the market successfully many times in the past, and got wealthy from it. So you have too give him credit for calling this one if it hits it and drops.
Well, it’s official… we left the recession in October 2009.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-recession-20100920,0,4014811.story
We are now free to “double dip” 🙂
is today an “extreme buying day”? pl check the adwances against declinces is it 4:1?
LOL…
Now I now it’s time to get short! Anytime the mass media says it’s over… I know it’s not!
I’m not sure on, but regardless if it is… I’m not buying this rally. I still think we’ll go up to 114.18 spy, and then roll over. Whether that is today, after Obama speaks, or after the FOMC meeting is still unknown.
yes i too……. but i had checked nyse its 4:1 perfect(81% to 17%). may be they plan to chop the bears at their best… but whatever, top is in………….?
@Leo
Did not respond to your query one time sorry mate.
S&P 500 futures trading above resistance line: CLICK HERE
I’ll buy my puts back at 1156.
Well…
Since it’s now obvious that Obama isn’t going to say something stupid (and cause a big sell off to start), that leaves it up to tomorrow for the 114.18 FP to be hit… and it’s probably going to be around the FOMC meeting.
But, I don’t think we’ll get to 1156, as that too far above the 114.18 spy print. So, you shouldn’t have to “buy back your puts” tomorrow.
Instead, you might be buying more puts? I think as long as there isn’t any QE2 plan announced today, the market will fall. It’s look like it’s going to happen today though… Bummer, I’d just like make one Black Monday call correctly. LOL
Told ya no black monday LOL
You only seen the picture, and never read the post…
S&P 500 moving away from 200 DMA: CLICK HERE
Bingo… we just hit 114.18 spy. Now what?
FP alert… 112.52!
Here’s the screen shot…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/spy-fp-112-52-on-09-20-2010.jpg
APPLE hits another high: CLICK HERE
In order for this to be a real breakout, the bulls need to close above todays’ high again tomorrow. I don’t think they will do it. The same goes for apple. It needs to close above today’s high too, by the close tomorrow.
If not, then this was just a bull trap and a stop clearing sweep (which is exactly what I think it was). I expect tomorrow to be down, as the FP of 114.18 spy has been met now. So, the market should turn down from here.
(But keep in mind… if Obama secretly pumped more money into system, then the bears are done).
If the stock ( Dow 30 type) was at RSI 67, I went LONG, this market is still SEPT rally. or post OPX correction..it’s 50/50
My portfolio is 55% long, 45% short
Today was either a bear squeeze and Tuesday is down, anyway I added 10% longs today.
Just no way to tell at this point Z? You’re right, it’s either one last bear squeeze, or a new rally has began.
Gold hits 1283, went long some gold stocks. FCX short is bleeding, need tourniquet.
Wow… I know there’s not any bears left after today’s move up!
AMAZON crosses resistance
Looks bad for the bears… should I put on my bull horns? LOL
What was the word of one of your favorite bloggers, “Patience”! As soon as I saw your post, I knew we would rally hard today, nonetheless you can call me crazy, but I just fully invested my 401 K in to RYIRX. Wish me luck! lol
Good luck my friend… good luck to all those brave enough to go short today or last week. We bears are either going to feast the rest of the week, or “be the feast”…
13+ points to go…
Not doing anything until we see 1 down day. I could be waiting for weeks…….lol
S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
Every time that Cable has popped its 2 Bollinger Band in the past 2 years, it saw at least short term (1 week) weakness, and often some extended downturns.
Well guess what happened just the other day?
Cable hasn’t been super correlated with SPX, but still quite correlated. And Cable represents big money flow, more than AUD/JPY.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/