This is aggravating since I know one guy”s service is going to go raving lunatic bullish over the weekend although his weekly trends are down. He has been calling for oil and euro to rally and bonds to sell off. One of the few good things about today was oil was down today and at one point down $2 off its high although that didn’t stop Chevron from closing on its high. Another trader with a good track record claims this rally has furthur to run although he is currently short.
I just did some research and saw that the 1930 bear rally off the June low ended on September 11 with a .3% rise. In 1929, it topped on Sept 3. My trading day cycles for today might be off by two days as it appeared I might have double counted one trading day from the Jan high. Theoretically, one could start the count on 07-07-09 and it will work as it was a similar low but that’s a little hokey. But this week
is 60 weeks from the July low and 30 weeks from Feb low. The stock market topped at 60 weeks off the March 2009 low in late April. It is also 18 weeks from the April high (666)(March 2009-July 2009low was 18 weeks) and there has been a consistent 9 week swing cycle going back to 2008 although it has been muted at times. The last 9 week cycle was at the late June lows.
——Another sign of capitulation: Apparently Jim Miekka, creator of the Hindenburg Omen, was on CNBC today declaring that he was going to ignore the HO signals until the McClellan Oscillator breaks down.—-
T Theory Dude apparently has extended his T until the end of the year or created a new one.
The currencies, Cable and Euro, have not followed SPX as expected. However my long call on SPX
(/ES futures) was spot on. Not sure if it has more to run.
My call on today’s Jobs Report as being “not as bad as expected” and a 1.5% rally today, was pretty good.
It’s time for a weekend. From my point of view, it is quite obvious that people are just getting more and more whacked out, completely losing their senses.
It is very interesting to observe this mass social psychosis, as an observer with “skin in the game”.
Astro was implying a SPX run to 1105, and a blog reader emailed in this chart of the Russell.
The overthrow looks perfect, the Astro is completed, but currencies seems to still have legs.
Tim Knight closed the last of his short positions yesterday….the perfect wave 2, tiring out bears by time and price, with a final push up to make even the most strident bear capitulate. PS holding QID from 17.8, but now that my ES futures long “hedge” is gone, The QID could stress me out if market continues higher next week. This is odd.
But here is the scary part for bears…EWI released a new monthly Financial forecast. Of course they are predicting imminent doom, and we all know how the MM’s HBB games EWI, ramping against their calls to take money from the bears.
Think of it, how many retail, buy and hold type, long only type, are still playing this market after being whipsawed around for a whole year. Almost none. The only source of fresh money for HBB is to game the bears, who are committed as “smart observers” who realize the horrific fundamentals that this country and the whole world face.
tHIS totally calculates all your risk, trading VNO. The risk becomes ZERO, WHEN VNO AT $90 Z with a ZERO. BACKTESTED 7 YEARS. 70 to 80% accuracy. http://pitch3.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/vno-9-2aa-600×427.jpg it takes time to do the eps work ups. That’s why I rarely post this method.
I like Red! so What can I do?
This is the worst week I have had in years.
That drop yesterday blew through my stops so fast it hit my downside limits. So noww iam am stuck with short portfolio. and it looks like
the next levels are 1115 at 200 ma and then 1129 hopeful resistance.
ADX just went green on daily so it will not turn quickly.
This is aggravating since I know one guy”s service is going to go raving lunatic bullish over the weekend although his weekly trends are down. He has been calling for oil and euro to rally and bonds to sell off. One of the few good things about today was oil was down today and at one point down $2 off its high although that didn’t stop Chevron from closing on its high. Another trader with a good track record claims this rally has furthur to run although he is currently short.
I just did some research and saw that the 1930 bear rally off the June low ended on September 11 with a .3% rise. In 1929, it topped on Sept 3. My trading day cycles for today might be off by two days as it appeared I might have double counted one trading day from the Jan high. Theoretically, one could start the count on 07-07-09 and it will work as it was a similar low but that’s a little hokey. But this week
is 60 weeks from the July low and 30 weeks from Feb low. The stock market topped at 60 weeks off the March 2009 low in late April. It is also 18 weeks from the April high (666)(March 2009-July 2009low was 18 weeks) and there has been a consistent 9 week swing cycle going back to 2008 although it has been muted at times. The last 9 week cycle was at the late June lows.
——Another sign of capitulation: Apparently Jim Miekka, creator of the Hindenburg Omen, was on CNBC today declaring that he was going to ignore the HO signals until the McClellan Oscillator breaks down.—-
T Theory Dude apparently has extended his T until the end of the year or created a new one.
Dollar FP
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/5ed01a75-31a4-46cd-bb91-2b7870e5b55e
S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
thanks. keeping an eye on VNO – will have to see if the EPS trends and price points align.
The currencies, Cable and Euro, have not followed SPX as expected. However my long call on SPX
(/ES futures) was spot on. Not sure if it has more to run.
My call on today’s Jobs Report as being “not as bad as expected” and a 1.5% rally today, was pretty good.
It’s time for a weekend. From my point of view, it is quite obvious that people are just getting more and more whacked out, completely losing their senses.
It is very interesting to observe this mass social psychosis, as an observer with “skin in the game”.
Astro was implying a SPX run to 1105, and a blog reader emailed in this chart of the Russell.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/bearish-hardly-cable-and-euro-have-legs.html
The overthrow looks perfect, the Astro is completed, but currencies seems to still have legs.
Tim Knight closed the last of his short positions yesterday….the perfect wave 2, tiring out bears by time and price, with a final push up to make even the most strident bear capitulate. PS holding QID from 17.8, but now that my ES futures long “hedge” is gone, The QID could stress me out if market continues higher next week.
This is odd.
But here is the scary part for bears…EWI released a new monthly Financial forecast. Of course they are predicting imminent doom, and we all know how the MM’s HBB games EWI, ramping against their calls to take money from the bears.
Think of it, how many retail, buy and hold type, long only type, are still playing this market after being whipsawed around for a whole year. Almost none. The only source of fresh money for HBB is to game the bears, who are committed as “smart observers” who realize the horrific fundamentals that this country and the whole world face.
tHIS totally calculates all your risk, trading VNO.
The risk becomes ZERO, WHEN VNO AT $90
Z with a ZERO.
BACKTESTED 7 YEARS. 70 to 80% accuracy.
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/vno-9-2aa-600×427.jpg
it takes time to do the eps work ups. That’s why I rarely post this method.
I like Red! so What can I do?
hEY pez, did you miss this chart?
It totally calculates all your risk, trading VNO.
The risk becomes ZERO, WHEN VNO AT $90
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/vno-9-2aa-600×427.jpg
Hang in there. The ISM report was really weak – from what i read. I thought this thing would roll-over this afternoon but it didn’t.
The underlying economy is still very weak. We’ll just have to watch this disconnect and decipher the market action.
One week got back all of August’s losses and then some.
This is the worst week I have had in years.
That drop yesterday blew through my stops so fast it hit my downside limits. So noww iam am stuck with short portfolio. and it looks like
the next levels are 1115 at 200 ma and then 1129 hopeful resistance.
ADX just went green on daily so it will not turn quickly.
I know a cuss word I will not use.