I certainly think one could go short at 111.17 and wait for the 109.20 print to be hit before exiting. That's a short term move of course, but I'm not ruling out a big sell off on Thursday or Friday.
However, with it being opx week, I really give it low odds. But next Monday and Tuesday should put in a top of some sort I believe.
Looking at two possible scenarios. We pop to 1100 on Mon. and Tues., or we go straight down from here to start the 3rd wave Thru about next Thursday. History says the former, but seasonality says the latter. Either way good risk/reward here for bears since the 3rd wave could go to 980.
Well, I wonder if we will go up to 111.17 at the EOD, or close flat and go down to 109.20 tomorrow morning… then back up to 111.17 by the end of tomorrow?
You might be right about that Jim. While we know we are going to 111.17, we don't know that the market will reverse there… only that it's today's upside target or early tomorrow.
From the looks of the tape, I'd say we are going to get there today. However, after the print is hit, we could trade sideways for awhile? We don't know that it's not going higher after a few pause days. One could safely exit longs at that level, but not necessarily go short.
We are hitting the downward sloping trendline right now, and it's holding the market back. If we float back down to the 109.20 FP, I'd expect us to gap up above the trendline tomorrow, and continue higher until we hit the FP that Diablo's caught of 111.17 spy.
After the FP is hit, the market could trade sideways until the end of the week. So, I'd only exit an longs that may have been taken, and not necessarily go short yet. Let's see how the charts look once we hit that print first, before assuming we are going to fall off a cliff from that level.
Of course if we go up to 111.17 first today, then I'd expect us to go back down to 109.20 tomorrow. Either way, just wait to get short or long, as we know the targets now.
I certainly think one could go short at 111.17 and wait for the 109.20 print to be hit before exiting. That's a short term move of course, but I'm not ruling out a big sell off on Thursday or Friday.
However, with it being opx week, I really give it low odds. But next Monday and Tuesday should put in a top of some sort I believe.
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on Time For A Bear Nap… 3 days ago
Looking at two possible scenarios. We pop to 1100 on Mon. and Tues., or we go straight down from here to start the 3rd wave Thru about next Thursday. History says the former, but seasonality says the latter. Either way good risk/reward here for bears since the 3rd wave could go to 980.
Well, I wonder if we will go up to 111.17 at the EOD, or close flat and go down to 109.20 tomorrow morning… then back up to 111.17 by the end of tomorrow?
You might be right about that Jim. While we know we are going to 111.17, we don't know that the market will reverse there… only that it's today's upside target or early tomorrow.
From the looks of the tape, I'd say we are going to get there today. However, after the print is hit, we could trade sideways for awhile? We don't know that it's not going higher after a few pause days. One could safely exit longs at that level, but not necessarily go short.
I think this buying will carry hard through the rest of the week.
You will notice the vix is down 8.39 % .
We are hitting the downward sloping trendline right now, and it's holding the market back. If we float back down to the 109.20 FP, I'd expect us to gap up above the trendline tomorrow, and continue higher until we hit the FP that Diablo's caught of 111.17 spy.
After the FP is hit, the market could trade sideways until the end of the week. So, I'd only exit an longs that may have been taken, and not necessarily go short yet. Let's see how the charts look once we hit that print first, before assuming we are going to fall off a cliff from that level.
Of course if we go up to 111.17 first today, then I'd expect us to go back down to 109.20 tomorrow. Either way, just wait to get short or long, as we know the targets now.
Possible.
I've been working on something that tells me thursday 1 ish, the spy would peak at 111.03 ish. Seeing that print today makes me happy.
If you figure the time line on them Newbear, be sure to tell us…. LOL
Keeping track of all these Fp's and the hit and failure rate and how long it takes them to hit the target will be interesting.