Thursday, June 13, 2024

Weekend Update…

Monday Update...

Not much to add, but I thought I'd just share a few feelings mainly. The charts could go either way at this point. Be careful in both directions...

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So what's next you ask?

This coming week should be a tricky week as they will likely rally up to squeeze the bears at some point, before finally falling off a cliff into a large wave 3 down.  Early Monday morning could produce a sell off to fulfill the bear flag that was made during Thursday and Friday's trading session.

Should it play out, then I could see us falling to around 1070 to fill that gap made on the 22nd of the month.  That would also fulfill the FP of 107.35 spy that we still haven't hit exactly.  While we did come close with a 107.59 print, we might not have gotten close enough to call that print "fulfilled"?

If we do fall, I expect it to be bought up and a rally to start with an upside target of around 1100, before we start back down again.  This is opx week, and they will squeeze some bears out before taking it down really hard into wave 3, which could start as early as this coming Thursday or Friday.  While they could also delay it until next week, I wouldn't be surprised if they start it this week.

In the past, they would pretty much have all the positions closed out by Wednesday of opx week, and Thursday and Friday would just trade sideways with light volume, closing out the week with little movement past Wednesday.  But that was during the last years' run up to the April high.  The market was trending higher then, and the stimulus money was still being pumped into the market.

Now the market is trending down and the stimulus money is being taken out of the market.  Traders are now more on edge and quick to hit the sell button, should the usual data on Thursday and Friday not be viewed as good.  I've noticed that Friday's haven't been so boring ever since we peaked in April.

We have the Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, and Philadelphia Fed data on this Thursday... all of them should move the market.  So, if we rally for 3 days straight, and hit the 1100 area target on Wednesday, then Thursday could send the market back down again.

However, if we don't rally ahead of that data, then I would expect the data to be spun as positive, and therefore cause a relief rally to put in wave 2 back up.  But, I'm leaning more toward a rally starting on Monday, after a possible early morning drop to key support and gap fill around 1070 spx.

So, down to 1070 Monday morning, then turn back up and run for 3 days to 1100 or so... and finally start the wave 3 back down on Thursdays' disappointing data.  Will it happen like that?  Probably not, but that what I see in the charts right now.

Of course there is always the possibility that we continue selling off all next week, with very little bounces.  But the fact that it's opx week tells me they will likely squeeze these new shorts out of the market before tanking her hard.  I just don't know if it will start late this week or be pushed off to next week.  That daily chart looks oversold right now, and could take longer then I expect to reset back up and be overbought again.  We'll just have too take it one day at a time.

For now, I give it a 50/50 chance of the bear flag playing out Monday morning, but whether it does or not, I expect a rally to start back up toward the 1100 area asap.  Too many bears on board now, they aren't in the business of giving them a free lunch.  If you are short and haven't sold yet, you might get your chance early Monday morning to get out.

If you can wait out the ride back up to 1100, then great... but most bears will likely exit and sit on the sidelines until another shorting opportunity is available.  Just be careful there bears as nothing goes straight down.  However, with that being said... this large wave 3 coming should be a bear feast.  I hope everyone is ready and makes a killing from it.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Robert
13 years ago

Good video tonight. We bounced nicely off 1068 in futures. Time for a rally off the gap lower in the morning.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

Yeah… I seen that. That tells me that we will likely revisit that 1068 area early in the morning session, and it should bounce there. With little data or earnings to move the market this week, the bears could easily get squeezed hard I'm afraid.

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Red, just looking at your 15 minute chart.
My 15 minute chart…You want to know the truth?
The signals won't balance themselves out for at least 2 days minimum.
Ergo, nothing strong indicated as far as day to day market directions.
I'm stuck in limbo.
IWM for instance, could go well below 58.6, or trade sideways. I'm not seeing any bounce on IWM for Monday. I am seeing a trend change (higher), for later this week.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Good Morning Gang…

So far it looks like the low over the weekend was 1068.50 on the ES Sunday night. I still think we will dip down in the morning, but the rest of the day should be up.

Robert
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Agree Red. Now that we filled that gap lets rally……

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones Futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

rk318
rk318
13 years ago

Well i think ur right red, cause i caught at very high rate on my puts & as we move toward opx put value came down with light vol. though i reached my target. So to reduce my cost i did avg. & exit today. The timing is very important ……

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  rk318

Wise move RK, as I'm sure they are going to squeeze the bears before the week is over.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Broadcom Trading near 200 DMA
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Follow the vix. they are selling into this bounce.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Jim,

The 60 minute chart isn't oversold yet, so we could go back down one more time today to retest the lows, but once it gets oversold and turns back up, I expect a rally of some sort to start.

Apple Al
Apple Al
13 years ago

Possible 5th wave ending diagonal this AM completing 5 waves down from Aug 9 highs (on ES) http://screencast.com/t/YWU1NTNhZjEt

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Apple Al

It's also a 5 wave move from the 1129 high Al, so it's both a 5th wave ending on a larger time frame and a smaller time frame. I agree with you, as I think the sell is over temporarily.

I don't know how high the wave 2 up will go, but at least 1100 is to be expected.

willthethrill
willthethrill
13 years ago

Who is this “they” to whom which everyone keeps referring????

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  willthethrill

“They” are the people that control the market, as in the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) run by Goldman Sachs, who is controlled by TPTB (The Powers That Be), better known as the Illuminati… who are the members in the Bilderburg Group and the attendees at the coming Legatus Pilgrimage.

willthethrill
willthethrill
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Maybe “they” are really “us” trading emotionally. I am sure we both would agree that “they” know how to use “us” against ourselves.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  willthethrill

LOL… yes Will, “they” have been manipulating “us” for eon's now. The mass media is controlled by them… so it's easy to program us to believe whatever they want to tell us.

We live in the matrix and they control it. Most people are unaware of them as they took the blue pill, but many people are now waking up after losing (err… planned elimination) their job's, house, car's etc…

The masses of people are finally rising up and “this” is what 2012 is really all about… a “change” in where the old ways (bankster's robbing everyone, controlled caustic, planned wars for population control, etc…) are going to be gone, and a new age of wonderful free energy technologies and freedom to the people will arise.

It may take a civil war in America for it to happen, as the banksters/gangsters won't give up easily… but a change for the betterment of mankind is coming.

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

A possible EW count, for what its worth, implying we are still only in P2, starting c of B. P3 would start near the large FP of DIA 118.16.

http://screencast.com/t/YzIzMTU5

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

Very interesting Diablos… thanks. It could happen, as we do know that at some point the 118.16 print will be hit. When is the question we can't answer

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Interesting opex Monday.Not the bounce I expected.

No direction clear yet. probably will know nothing until 3PM

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

The 60 minute chart is overbought and needs to go down today into oversold territory so it can align up with the daily being oversold… which would allow them both to rally up together on Tuesday. They are fighting each other right now Jim, but should align together pointing up by tomorrow.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I am sorry red i do not see the overbought on 60. What inicators are you seeing as overbought?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Let me rephrase that Jim… the 60 minute is only over bought on the histogram bars. The Stoc's and MACD's are oversold. When the histogram bars go down below zero and re-cycle back up they will have the power to rally higher.

They need to be all aligned together on the 60, and the daily to get a good push up. I suspect it will happen tomorrow. Here's a link to the 60 minute chart. Notice that the histogram bars are still above zero, but the MACD's and Stoc's are oversold.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

rk318
rk318
13 years ago

Red, if the market hit 8300 level will we think its start of new bull run? Means completion of wave 3,double dip. As per ur state. Bb & legatus men control the market then why they leave their control easily?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  rk318

I'm not sure I understand your question? They “do” control the market and will make money from the move down to 8300 and the move up to 118.16… whenever each of them happen?

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red, can you provide a link to the 8300 print? Don't have that one handy.

Thanks

rk318
rk318
13 years ago

My quest. Is, will market make its final bottom around 8300? or u think, after some time situation of market getting so worst that they would not be able to manipulate it any more & market will touch to ur ultimate bottom expectation i.e spy 20 something?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  rk318

Once this market starts heading south toward 8300, I can't really see it ever making it back up to 118.16 anytime soon. Once 8300 is hit, a large wave 2 back up should happen, but it's not likely to break the current high.

After that, then another wave down should happen… taking out the March, 2009 lows. The final 5th wave down might not happen until late 2011 or 2012 (maybe longer?), and should put in the final low of 20.16 spy… but I hope I'm wrong on that one.

If the market goes down that low, you won't want to live in America anymore…

Robert
13 years ago

Now were cooking….lets squeeze some shorts…………

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

I take it you are long now Robert.

Robert
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Just for today. Possibly tomorrow………..

C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago

Stick a fork in it. Based on price action in tech, financials, and crude. Looking for a doji close around 1075. Tomorrow could be the gap down.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

The charts are out of whack right now. They should have rolled the 60 over this morning and got it to roll back up tomorrow. But they still have the histogram bars in positive territory. That's not going to allow for a big push up right now. The internals of the charts are fighting each other… not good for the bull side.

zstock7
13 years ago

Here's my plan, short IWM, and go long ESI.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

I tell you what Z… it's not looking very bull friendly right now. Where are the dip buyers? We should be going up to at least 1100 or so… and today is Bullish Mutual Fund Monday. So what gives? Are we going to have a Hindenburg Omen later this week?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The market seem to be stuck in limb right now… not wanting to go up, or down. Very bearish…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Absolutely a NOTHING day… could have done other more enjoyable things then stare at the tape all day. No clues left for tomorrow either? Hmmm?

Robert
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Not too bad of a day. Would have liked a bigger rally. Bought some TNA in pre-market and sold near the high. I believe we rally tomorrow. Why? It's OPEX week. Good luck and like you said, better days ahead for the bears.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Boring. Boring day. Glad I didn't follow the market too closely today. Just one thing. Tomorrow is a do or die day. All the averages can do an easy bull flip tomorrow (a close above the close 4 closes earlier). Either the market does a bull flip or accelerates lower. It's just the boring compression action is reminding me of the July low which is probably what the big boys want everyone to feel/think. With all the moverages turning down and starting to cross each other, I still like the bearish scenario.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh the page for a new video update gang. Not much to say, just my thoughts. The charts don't tell me much right now, as we could go either way at this point.

DrJim
DrJim
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red: I refreshed the page nothing yet – it is one hour after your last post of “Refresh the page for a new video update gang.”

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  DrJim

You should see a second video added to the weekend post. I didn't do a new post, but instead only added an update to the current post.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Oh… sorry about that gang. I clicked on the “update post” button but it got stuck I guess? I've been away from the computer for the last hour or so. It's up now.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones Futures Hourly chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago
Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

SPY FP @ 9:14 AM 111.17.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

Do you have a screen shot of that Diablo's?

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

Thanks… I've been gone and just got back. Did the 2nd to last candle actually go down that low, or is that a FP too?

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Looks fake on 1 min, 109.20

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

It's 4 candles back right now on the 5 minute chart… and yeah, it looks fake to me too.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

I think we will pull back to 109.20 spy today, and then push up to 111.17 tomorrow or the next day. There is also a print of 108.29 spy, but that's the exact point for gap fill, which makes me wonder about it.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Keeping track of all these Fp's and the hit and failure rate and how long it takes them to hit the target will be interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

If you figure the time line on them Newbear, be sure to tell us…. LOL

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Possible.

I've been working on something that tells me thursday 1 ish, the spy would peak at 111.03 ish. Seeing that print today makes me happy.

C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago

scenario 1

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

The four remaining specialist are doing everything they can to churn it up on weak volume, We get some good entry points by Friday me thinks.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

We should go up to at least 1100 spx, I would think Jim.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures trading near resistance area
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Of course if we go up to 111.17 first today, then I'd expect us to go back down to 109.20 tomorrow. Either way, just wait to get short or long, as we know the targets now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We are hitting the downward sloping trendline right now, and it's holding the market back. If we float back down to the 109.20 FP, I'd expect us to gap up above the trendline tomorrow, and continue higher until we hit the FP that Diablo's caught of 111.17 spy.

After the FP is hit, the market could trade sideways until the end of the week. So, I'd only exit an longs that may have been taken, and not necessarily go short yet. Let's see how the charts look once we hit that print first, before assuming we are going to fall off a cliff from that level.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

I think this buying will carry hard through the rest of the week.

You will notice the vix is down 8.39 % .

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

You might be right about that Jim. While we know we are going to 111.17, we don't know that the market will reverse there… only that it's today's upside target or early tomorrow.

From the looks of the tape, I'd say we are going to get there today. However, after the print is hit, we could trade sideways for awhile? We don't know that it's not going higher after a few pause days. One could safely exit longs at that level, but not necessarily go short.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, I wonder if we will go up to 111.17 at the EOD, or close flat and go down to 109.20 tomorrow morning… then back up to 111.17 by the end of tomorrow?

C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago

*

on Time For A Bear Nap… 3 days ago

Looking at two possible scenarios. We pop to 1100 on Mon. and Tues., or we go straight down from here to start the 3rd wave Thru about next Thursday. History says the former, but seasonality says the latter. Either way good risk/reward here for bears since the 3rd wave could go to 980.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

I certainly think one could go short at 111.17 and wait for the 109.20 print to be hit before exiting. That's a short term move of course, but I'm not ruling out a big sell off on Thursday or Friday.

However, with it being opx week, I really give it low odds. But next Monday and Tuesday should put in a top of some sort I believe.

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Red
61 RIMM fake print.
I have it captured.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

That's not go for the bear case… Post it when you get a chance (not that it's going to play out today of course).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Is there any important news coming out this Thursday and Friday that could cause a wave 3 down to start (aside from what the charts say)?

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have a weak short sell signal DIA at 105.49, it might actually could be a good short sell signal.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

I wouldn't short anything right now. Wait for the SPY 111.17 FP to be hit first.

zstock7
13 years ago

DIA is either in breakout 108 or breakdown 102 right now… next 2-4 days or so.

zstock7
13 years ago

If you have a SOLO IRA, ESI is an IRA buy…sell +28%

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Gang, if we go down to 109.20 into the close or in the morning tomorrow, that's a short term buying opportunity for a ride back up to 111.17 spy.

This market isn't going to roll over until that print is hit first. I wouldn't be heavy short here, as that print hasn't hit yet.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red – what is at 111.17 ?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

A FP that Diablo's caught this morning.

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 stops at 50 Hour Moving average
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

Thanks Diablo's… that's the same print I got this morning at 10:40 am, which is also gap fill. I'm not sure I trust that print, as it's more then likely a late fill, as opposed to a FP.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Robert
13 years ago

Very nice day today. So far OPEX is working like a charm. Got to believe we go up tomorrow also. Don't forget to pull the trigger into resistance………..

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Thanks Z…

That's on a daily chart so it could take a month or more to happen, but at least you know your upside target now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Youtube is slow processing the video for tonight, but I included a link incase you can't wait to see it. The new post is up.

spot_img

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