In the past 25 years the VIX has risen from a level below 20 to a level above 45, within a matter of a couple of months or less, 6 times. This happened in 1998, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now recently, when the VIX went over 50 in August. The previous 5 times this occurred, here is what happened to the VIX in the months that followed:
1998: In August, the VIX hits 45.02. September VIX high: 48.06, October VIX high: 49.53.
2002: In July, the VIX hits 48.46. August high: 45.21, September high: 41.86, October high: 43.44.
2008: In September, the VIX hits 48.40. For the next 7 months it rises above 45 every month, going above 50 in 6 of those 7 months, and peaks above 80 in October and November.
2010: In May, the VIX hits 48.20. June high: 37.38, July high: 37.58.
2011: In August, the VIX hits 48.00. September high: 43.87, October high: 46.88.
And now 2015: In August, the VIX hits 53.29 after being as low as 10.88 just earlier in the month.
The previous 5 times this occurred (VIX going from 45 in 2 months or less), the VIX rose to a level above 37 in each of the 2 months that followed 100% of the time. And the previous 4 times when the initial VIX reading above 45 occurred in the second half of the year, as it has this year, the VIX rose to above 40 in each of the following 2 months (or more) 100% of the time.
I’m a little conflicted. I don’t know if I should be uber bearish or short term semi-bullish. We have Greek elections coming up that nobody is talking about which should scare anyone but then we have crash calls and calls for a market turn yesterday by notorious misdirecting trolls. The momentum was so strong on yesterday’s high on the short term charts that I think they need to be retested.
<<>>>>
The pope is also visiting LES Manhattan Isle next week and will be addressing the UN (possibly proclaiming the dawn of the Age of Aquarius to the UN???) so that should make anyone worried. Winston Churchill was in NYC in double ninen to watch denouement take place that year.
<<>>>>>
And we have the Silver Lining Playbook EAGLES squaring off against Dallas on Sunday facing a potential bloodbath loss as the Curse of Tebow continues to take force. The pundits continue to proclaim that the EAGLES will mop up the #88 less Cowboys which on paper does seem like an apparent mismatch but the operators are setting up an epic headfake and continue to fool the masses into thinking the EAGLES can be SB contenders while being led by the woeful 1987 born QB #7 (formerly #8) (who lost to Tebow in his original 316 game back in 2009). In fact, all of the hype should be faded as long as #7 continues to start unless he’s facing cupcakes….but he did face one last week and still lost.
Well, looks like tomorrow is the big day. There should be some wild moves after the 2pm minutes… especially if they don’t raise rates. Whatever happens I’ll be looking to short it into next week.
Oscar is spot on! The markets are in very serious trouble. Protect yourself and enjoy the correction.
Just reiterating…. OIL…GOLD….FEAR!! Look at these last 2 candlesticks on the SPY. That’s NOT BULLISH by any means.
In the past 25 years the VIX has risen from a level below 20 to a level above 45, within a matter of a couple of months or less, 6 times. This happened in 1998, 2002, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now recently, when the VIX went over 50 in August. The previous 5 times this occurred, here is what happened to the VIX in the months that followed:
1998: In August, the VIX hits 45.02. September VIX high: 48.06, October VIX high: 49.53.
2002: In July, the VIX hits 48.46. August high: 45.21, September high: 41.86, October high: 43.44.
2008: In September, the VIX hits 48.40. For the next 7 months it rises above 45 every month, going above 50 in 6 of those 7 months, and peaks above 80 in October and November.
2010: In May, the VIX hits 48.20. June high: 37.38, July high: 37.58.
2011: In August, the VIX hits 48.00. September high: 43.87, October high: 46.88.
And now 2015: In August, the VIX hits 53.29 after being as low as 10.88 just earlier in the month.
The previous 5 times this occurred (VIX going from 45 in 2 months or less), the VIX rose to a level above 37 in each of the 2 months that followed 100% of the time. And the previous 4 times when the initial VIX reading above 45 occurred in the second half of the year, as it has this year, the VIX rose to above 40 in each of the following 2 months (or more) 100% of the time.
I’m a little conflicted. I don’t know if I should be uber bearish or short term semi-bullish. We have Greek elections coming up that nobody is talking about which should scare anyone but then we have crash calls and calls for a market turn yesterday by notorious misdirecting trolls. The momentum was so strong on yesterday’s high on the short term charts that I think they need to be retested.
<<>>>>
The pope is also visiting LES Manhattan Isle next week and will be addressing the UN (possibly proclaiming the dawn of the Age of Aquarius to the UN???) so that should make anyone worried. Winston Churchill was in NYC in double ninen to watch denouement take place that year.
<<>>>>>
And we have the Silver Lining Playbook EAGLES squaring off against Dallas on Sunday facing a potential bloodbath loss as the Curse of Tebow continues to take force. The pundits continue to proclaim that the EAGLES will mop up the #88 less Cowboys which on paper does seem like an apparent mismatch but the operators are setting up an epic headfake and continue to fool the masses into thinking the EAGLES can be SB contenders while being led by the woeful 1987 born QB #7 (formerly #8) (who lost to Tebow in his original 316 game back in 2009). In fact, all of the hype should be faded as long as #7 continues to start unless he’s facing cupcakes….but he did face one last week and still lost.
Friday, September 18th 2015 – ES Futures Morning Update: http://screencast.com/t/EDNonSzD
Understanding the Dodd-Frank act as explained by Oscar Carboni https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=T3I6nWc9EiE
We are in for a hefty selloff.
I think we top today or Friday and down all next week.
Funny we hit 2008.33 then backed down………..2008 crash 33 free mason number…………Are we headed down??
Well, looks like tomorrow is the big day. There should be some wild moves after the 2pm minutes… especially if they don’t raise rates. Whatever happens I’ll be looking to short it into next week.