I’ll do a new update when I can Ed, but I still see a huge move down in October. I don’t know the date yet as I’m not sure what they plan to do at this FOMC meeting? If they decide to rally the market up to a new high then the top should come in early October.
If they sell off hard from the meeting this Wednesday and head down toward that prior 1560 area for a C wave then the last move up into October will likely be pushed out until late in the month, likely after Legatus. So what happens after this FOMC meeting will determine the timeline.
The patient bear will be rewarded. Failure to make a higher high then this mornings’ high of 1703.74 SPX gives great odds that the high is in today. But considering that there is an FOMC meeting this Wednesday I’d lean more toward waiting until then to short. A double top has about a 80% statistical odds of a reversal.
The amount of the reversal is unknown of course but considering the timing of the FOMC meeting in 2 days and how close we are to the prior 1709 high odds favor Bernanke saying something at that meeting that either tanks the market or causes a breakout new all time high.
So what I’m thinking here is that today’s huge move up was some kind of wave 3 and the choppy sideways action the rest of today (and likely into Tuesday too) will be some kind of wave 4… which leaves a wave 5 up on FOMC day to complete this larger wave B up from 1627 SPX. That implies wave A down was from the 1709 high, and therefore means we have a C wave down coming.
This all assumes we don’t make a new higher high from something Bernanke says on Wednesday. We need to stay under the 1709 current high to keep this pattern. If we make a new high then this wave count is invalid.
But if we fall into a wave C down and head toward the prior 1560 low then the early October high seems unlikely as there won’t likely be enough time left to rally the market back up to over 1709 before my first guess of October 4th, which means we should look for another date later that month.
I’ll do a new update when I can Ed, but I still see a huge move down in October. I don’t know the date yet as I’m not sure what they plan to do at this FOMC meeting? If they decide to rally the market up to a new high then the top should come in early October.
If they sell off hard from the meeting this Wednesday and head down toward that prior 1560 area for a C wave then the last move up into October will likely be pushed out until late in the month, likely after Legatus. So what happens after this FOMC meeting will determine the timeline.
CRUDE Oil chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/crude-oil-chart-analysis.html
Hey Red, is Oct Crash is in the cards? 10/4 is the first 11th day in Oct, do you think is safe to short there?
The failure of the market to react negatively is worrisome for the bears in my opinion.
Fed taper likely to be announced this week: El-Erian http://www.cnbc.com/id/101036631
The patient bear will be rewarded. Failure to make a higher high then this mornings’ high of 1703.74 SPX gives great odds that the high is in today. But considering that there is an FOMC meeting this Wednesday I’d lean more toward waiting until then to short. A double top has about a 80% statistical odds of a reversal.
The amount of the reversal is unknown of course but considering the timing of the FOMC meeting in 2 days and how close we are to the prior 1709 high odds favor Bernanke saying something at that meeting that either tanks the market or causes a breakout new all time high.
So what I’m thinking here is that today’s huge move up was some kind of wave 3 and the choppy sideways action the rest of today (and likely into Tuesday too) will be some kind of wave 4… which leaves a wave 5 up on FOMC day to complete this larger wave B up from 1627 SPX. That implies wave A down was from the 1709 high, and therefore means we have a C wave down coming.
This all assumes we don’t make a new higher high from something Bernanke says on Wednesday. We need to stay under the 1709 current high to keep this pattern. If we make a new high then this wave count is invalid.
But if we fall into a wave C down and head toward the prior 1560 low then the early October high seems unlikely as there won’t likely be enough time left to rally the market back up to over 1709 before my first guess of October 4th, which means we should look for another date later that month.
Apple Weekly Bearish Engulfing: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2013/09/apple-weekly-bearish-engulfing.html
can you PLEASE for the love of all mighty TRANSLATE THAT?
AAPL update, it may trade 465 to 475 for 3 weeks in a row. IBM and BRCM sort of did that already
i’m glad shorts are working.