Something else to watch: The 75-week MA. Very clean support/resistance throughout the major bull/bear phases of the market for almost two decades. Tested this week and currently at 1013.50, near major fib levels from both the '07-'09 plunge and the '09-'10 bounce.
Just one more piece that argues for a bounce here, whether we're in bear or bull, short term. If we get a bounce, it might be worth monitoring that MA to see if it provides support along its currently upsloping trajectory (in which case bears should probably be careful) or if that line is broken on a closing basis and holds, in which case it may provide a useful risk-reward point for initiating new shorts (in addition to the shorter-term MAs).
Breaking thru the 50/200 day crossover is about to HIT HARD from the 16th to 30th This month. From there we can get some WILD SWINGS with lower lows until OCTOBER 4th- Stan Harley for one, has it pegged as a critical LOW this year and I for TWO, agree with that analysis. BUT THE BIG $$ is about to be handed to the BEARS- After Jly 30, we can still expect ONE more DIP to Aug10th before swinging in vicious bear mkt fashion, but each rally until OCT4th is ONLY a rebound within a declining trend . http://jaywiz.blogspot.com DAILY EKG after 90 days NOW at 69.6% SUCCESSFUL
From Alphhorne's blog, I'm saving this. It seems very useful ie CCI 233
What I have found to be the best leading indicator for equities is the $TNX (10 year treasury note yield) and the associated indicators that you will see on the chart below. On a daily chart (this is true for ALMOST ANY STOCK TOO!) the CCI 233 is a must indicator! When it breaks below 100, it marks a change in the trend. Now, although that is a trailing indicator in terms of the $TNX, it is generally a LEADING indicator in terms of equities -SEE THE RED VERTICAL LINE! For those of you who want to continue to day trade, this chart can also alert you to daily trend changes. Read notes 1,2, and 3 and remember how I pointed to this Tuesday's drop Monday night before it happened by highlighting the previous day's negative divergence between the $TNX, which was down 2.3% and the equities, which were flat to up http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2010/06/monday-wr….
I think we rally hard on tuesday or wednesday everything is way over sold along w/the CPCE ratio, a sure sign of a rally, and a short term bottom is in
QQQQ fibs, are coming into to ” do or die, territory.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/q…
Hi z,
The 75wsma isn't quite as clean for $COMPQ as $SPX, but it is close.
Currently for the Qs it's 40.25, which is in the same ballpark you're indicating.
Hi Rosabarba,
Something else to watch!
QQQQ 40.4 is a 20% correction. QQQQ under 40.4, signals a double dip recession.
Hi Red,
Something else to watch: The 75-week MA. Very clean support/resistance throughout the major bull/bear phases of the market for almost two decades. Tested this week and currently at 1013.50, near major fib levels from both the '07-'09 plunge and the '09-'10 bounce.
Just one more piece that argues for a bounce here, whether we're in bear or bull, short term. If we get a bounce, it might be worth monitoring that MA to see if it provides support along its currently upsloping trajectory (in which case bears should probably be careful) or if that line is broken on a closing basis and holds, in which case it may provide a useful risk-reward point for initiating new shorts (in addition to the shorter-term MAs).
Thanks for the update Jay. Happy 4th of July to you and your family… and all your blog posters too. You've got a good group there now it seems.
Breaking thru the 50/200 day crossover is about to HIT HARD from the 16th to 30th This month. From there we can get some WILD SWINGS
with lower lows until OCTOBER 4th- Stan Harley for one, has it pegged
as a critical LOW this year and I for TWO, agree with that analysis.
BUT THE BIG $$ is about to be handed to the BEARS-
After Jly 30, we can still expect ONE more DIP to Aug10th before swinging in vicious bear mkt fashion, but each rally until OCT4th is ONLY a rebound within a declining trend .
http://jaywiz.blogspot.com
DAILY EKG after 90 days NOW at 69.6% SUCCESSFUL
From Alphhorne's blog, I'm saving this. It seems very useful ie CCI 233
What I have found to be the best leading indicator for equities is the $TNX (10 year treasury note yield) and the associated indicators that you will see on the chart below. On a daily chart (this is true for ALMOST ANY STOCK TOO!) the CCI 233 is a must indicator! When it breaks below 100, it marks a change in the trend. Now, although that is a trailing indicator in terms of the $TNX, it is generally a LEADING indicator in terms of equities -SEE THE RED VERTICAL LINE! For those of you who want to continue to day trade, this chart can also alert you to daily trend changes. Read notes 1,2, and 3 and remember how I pointed to this Tuesday's drop Monday night before it happened by highlighting the previous day's negative divergence between the $TNX, which was down 2.3% and the equities, which were flat to up http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2010/06/monday-wr….
I think we rally hard on tuesday or wednesday everything is way over sold along w/the CPCE ratio, a sure sign of a rally, and a short term bottom is in
That scares me too, but all the charts point to a gap down Tuesday. Man… I hope the charts are right for once.
It seems everyone on the bloshpere is now very bearish as if it's a done deal. That concerns me most.