Jobs, Jobs, And Less Jobs…

313
1828

... unless you want to clean up an oil spill for BP of course.

Yes, the numbers were horrible today... for the Continuing Claims and Initial Claims that is.  Tomorrow has the  Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate, which should be just as bad.  But, we are very oversold right now, so I'm expecting a sell off first, then a rally.

We went down to within 41 cents of the 100.72 spy fake print, before reversing hard into the close.  I still think a down move to the 990 area is coming, but not tomorrow.  I think the move down in the morning will only put in a higher low, and then rally the rest of the day, closing positive.

There is a lot of resistance in the 1040 area now, and I think that will stop the advance tomorrow, and could be the closing price too?  However, I have a fake print of 1070.50 too, and should 1040 not hold back the bulls... a massive short squeeze could happen, taking us up to that level.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't think we will hit that target tomorrow... but anything is possible, so keep that in mind.  I feel like we will hit 1040, and close around there, then hit 1070 next week, at which point I would go short again.

But let's just play it one day at a time.  For tomorrow, a possible down move early in the morning on jobs data and rally the rest of the day is my forecast for Friday.

Good luck everyone...

Red

313 COMMENTS

        • The fake print of 1070.50 spx is there for a reason. It's where they plan to take the market too… but “when” is unknown? So the 1040 area is obvious to everyone, as it was major support… now resistance.

          The 1070 area isn't obvious to everyone, but besides the fake print, there is also a gap around that area that needs to be filled. Look closely at the big red bar down on this 60 minute chart, that fell from the 1080 area on June 28th.

          http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

          It left a gap… and it will likely be filled. When, is anyone's guess? But I think it will be there something next week. Here's the fake print too…

          http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010

          • I have a fake print of 112.41 spy, which could be reached before falling back down again. However, if tomorrow only reaches 1040 and closes there, it would go into the weekend overbought on the 60 and 15 minute charts.

            That leaves the possibility that next Tuesday could drop down to the 990 area, for one final low before a larger rally back up to at least the 1070.50 fake print, or even the 112.41 spy print?

            I don't see 1150 though… too high for now, but 1100 is certainly possible. The high will like be on opx for this month, or the following Monday.

            As long as we stay under the 1131 right shoulder high, I think the market will continue down for several months, as the monthly and weekly charts tell me that we have started Primary Wave 3 down.

            Optimism is good, but staying in the game and make some money is better. Good luck too you, if you decide to stay long waiting on 1150. I'm bailing at 1070, and then 112.41… if it looks like it's still got more upside left in it?

  1. Good Morning Gang…

    The jobless rate fell to 9.5%, from 9.7%… but they lost 125,000 jobs in June. So, it's bad as expected, but the pre-market isn't tanking right now.

    That means the rally for today is probably on. If you want to play the long side today, I'd look for an early morning dip. The upside target for today is 1040.

    Or, just take the day off, as after the first hour or so, the market should go to sleep as everone leaves for the holiday weekend.

  2. Good Morning Gang…

    The jobless rate fell to 9.5%, from 9.7%… but they lost 125,000 jobs in June. So, it's bad as expected, but the pre-market isn't tanking right now.

    That means the rally for today is probably on. If you want to play the long side today, I'd look for an early morning dip. The upside target for today is 1040.

    Or, just take the day off, as after the first hour or so, the market should go to sleep as everone leaves for the holiday weekend.

      • ah, and there's rub, yes? most economists, real ones who aren't bought and paid for by the establishment, say the unemployment rate is more likely at 18%. Esp because so many people have just given up looking and are no longer drawing unemployment

  3. You know, Red makes comments sometimes about feeling too negative but I think we should view this whole recession(depression actually) from the standpoint that pruning is necessary. It is unfortunate that it is at the expense, money, and stress of so many of the “little guys” but that is what happens when people, no matter what economic level, don't stick to basic fundamental principals of money management. I.E. over spending, use of “bad” debt etc etc
    People need to trim the fat, remember what made us a great nation, (deferred gratification, hard work, etc) and get to it. That is, if we haven't passed the point of no return, collectively as a society. Japan and Germany were at rock bottom though and look at them now. Not perfect, but waaaaay better than they were post war.

    Ok, that sounded really preachy didn't it.

    • Well thanks Dumbocracy…

      I'm actually a very positive and upbeat person. I've just been caught up in this depression crap, and seen too much negative information… hence the reason I write about it so much.

      The good news is, I don't think the world will end in 2012 as many may believe. In fact, I think the Illuminati enslavement of mankind will end, and the sheep will finally be free.

      But, I usually make posts on those subjects when the market is slow, and I don't have anything else to write about. Here lately though, it's finally starting to get exciting, as another move down is coming next week… after we go up to 1070 for the gap fill and backtest.

      Things are looking up for the bears I believe…

      • That certainly wasn't a jab at you Red. I get that you are a fundamentally upbeat person. I am merely stating the obvious that money can be made in a bear market and like you said things are looking up(or down, hopefully) for the bears.

        Just meant to say, that though it is engineered by the puppeteers, maybe the shock will be healthy and reorient people's responsibility meters…

        • No… I knew that. I was saying “thank you” for posting that. Many others think I'm too negative on my posts sometimes. I just tell it like it is… and it's really bad out there right now.

  4. Doesn't look like there is going to be any dip to go long today, so you might want to stand aside. I personally don't want to ever chase a tape. However, it could pull back and fill the morning gap, and then run higher the rest of the day.

  5. So far very interesting. Got out of spxu and vxx at open but of course now having second thoughts.

    I see a bounce to 1050-1060 but maybe the markets are just too scared now..

    Will sit aside w/ mostly cash today i guess. Still have drv tza with such low base i will ride.

  6. Gang the 60 and the 15 minute charts are now looking like they are going to roll over today. We could have a big sell off into the close, instead of a rally. I'd close any long up now… for anyone brave enough to go long today.

    • I'm sticking with my pick…kangaroo tail…I think we just hit bottom…I was looking for 102.36..38..but 102.46 is good …not up for the day…

      • It's just looking pretty weak, so I'd rather sit on the sidelines right now. I still think we are going up to 1070, but I don't know if that starts from here, or from 990?

        • I agree we goto fill the gap @ 107 and of course I believe it started yesterday…so far so good….move my stop up to break even…102.28

  7. This thing looks ready to roll over at anytime now. Just don't know if they will allow it to do so today… going into the 4th and all? With the light volume, they could hold it up all day?

  8. Since none of the selling is sticking, I'd say that we will dip down below the zero level on the 15 minute chart, and curl back up into the close. If that happens, then there should be a rally then, as the 15 and the 60 will be pushing the market up.

    Right now, the 15 is pushing down and the 60 is pushing up. That's why we are trading in this range. Once the 15 resets, and push back up, they will be aligned together and allow the market to rise higher.

    The light volume, as all the traders are probably leaving for the weekend right now, will also help allow the market to rise… as there won't be any selling pressure left.

      • It can drift down on low volume like it used to drift up. I am in cash now although my GUESS is that we may go even lower. However, I will accept my loss and move on. I have been short a long time and was hoping to break even. I came close. Lesson learned: Stay away from levered funds.

        • In this last drop i have made over 300,000 in leveraged funds.

          They are a great instrument=ment if you understand how to play the game.

          You must get good at setting stops and using the moving averages.
          if you do you will not lose.

  9. LISTEN EVERYONE…

    Keep your eye's open on all charts, and all news sites for fake prints over the weekend. That last sell off into the close was very bearish. We could gap down hard on Tuesday, and I'd like to know where the bottom is… maybe they will tell us?

  10. From Alphhorne's blog, I'm saving this. It seems very useful ie CCI 233

    What I have found to be the best leading indicator for equities is the $TNX (10 year treasury note yield) and the associated indicators that you will see on the chart below. On a daily chart (this is true for ALMOST ANY STOCK TOO!) the CCI 233 is a must indicator! When it breaks below 100, it marks a change in the trend. Now, although that is a trailing indicator in terms of the $TNX, it is generally a LEADING indicator in terms of equities -SEE THE RED VERTICAL LINE! For those of you who want to continue to day trade, this chart can also alert you to daily trend changes. Read notes 1,2, and 3 and remember how I pointed to this Tuesday's drop Monday night before it happened by highlighting the previous day's negative divergence between the $TNX, which was down 2.3% and the equities, which were flat to up http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2010/06/monday-wr….

  11. Breaking thru the 50/200 day crossover is about to HIT HARD from the 16th to 30th This month. From there we can get some WILD SWINGS
    with lower lows until OCTOBER 4th- Stan Harley for one, has it pegged
    as a critical LOW this year and I for TWO, agree with that analysis.
    BUT THE BIG $$ is about to be handed to the BEARS-
    After Jly 30, we can still expect ONE more DIP to Aug10th before swinging in vicious bear mkt fashion, but each rally until OCT4th is ONLY a rebound within a declining trend .
    http://jaywiz.blogspot.com
    DAILY EKG after 90 days NOW at 69.6% SUCCESSFUL

  12. Hi Red,

    Something else to watch: The 75-week MA. Very clean support/resistance throughout the major bull/bear phases of the market for almost two decades. Tested this week and currently at 1013.50, near major fib levels from both the '07-'09 plunge and the '09-'10 bounce.

    Just one more piece that argues for a bounce here, whether we're in bear or bull, short term. If we get a bounce, it might be worth monitoring that MA to see if it provides support along its currently upsloping trajectory (in which case bears should probably be careful) or if that line is broken on a closing basis and holds, in which case it may provide a useful risk-reward point for initiating new shorts (in addition to the shorter-term MAs).

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