The UUP (the dollar) has fell back to gap window at 25.05 and found support. As soon as it starts rallying again, the market should follow by going lower (remember, they trade the opposite).
The 900 area is where I would look to go short too Jim. But only for short lived rally. Several days at leasts, a few weeks at most. Depends on what the charts look like after a rally from the 990 area starts.
I only said it “could” rally for several weeks… not that it would. It all depends on the charts at this point. Once the daily chart gets deeply oversold a multi-week rally is possible.
For now though, the trend is down, with short lived rallies to shake out the weak hands. Remember… I short right now.
I only said it “could” rally for several weeks… not that it would. It all depends on the charts at this point. Once the daily chart gets deeply oversold a multi-week rally is possible.
For now though, the trend is down, with short lived rallies to shake out the weak hands. Remember… I short right now.
I think you are over analyzing here trying to play perceived swings. This market could only muster an intraday high of 1131 for all the bluster and rebounding and elation at busting through 1105, etc and just as rapidly has come down again, most likely to burst through 1140 this time and then to who knows where. Why all of that gives you some great sense of a two or three week rally to new highs baffles me. I don't know how many more clues are needed from the economy, the administration, what is happening on the streets, what is happening throughout the world to alert you to the fact that times are bad and will soon move to ugly too. You can only prop up and patch a dilapidated house for so long before the obvious happens. There are a MYRIAD of things that can erupt at any point in time to really collapse this thing. Playing around guessing for some rally amidst of all that seems pretty ill advised to me.
Ben, if you go long, you should be aware that the vix will drop big time on the rise. For that reason, you should either buy a option that is “in the money” (2-3 points on the spy), or do a spread to neutralize the vix going lower when the market rises.
If we get down to the low 990's, then I will do a 100/105 call spread. Meaning, I'll buy the 100 (July), and sell the 105. The market should easily get back to 105 before the expiration of the options.
In fact, I have a fake print of 112 spy, so that might be the target for opx? Don't know of course, but once the rally starts, it will squeeze all the bears out. You know that all too well by now.
If we get to 105 by this Friday, I'll close out the call spread, and go long with something else. Just remember, with spreads, you can't make any more money once it goes to the strike price of the one you sold (in this case, the 105).
Jay uses time cycles I believe, and maybe astrology too? RRman is pretty good too, and I must agree with him on this call. I believe today will be a trend down day, just like February the 4th.
Then tomorrow should open with a big sell off early, and then rally back add close positive like February the 5th did. Then rally the rest of the week and probably next week too.
rrman said… (interpreting Helge ?sp) ben we pop at close up into 9pm central will be a nice pop short it hard! then down hard into 8-830 am Wed..,., cover everything then! I will go long hard…. we will go up hard into July 6 or 7th there will be some whipsaws but will hold tna/faz until that high helge shows july 5 market closed…
The UUP (the dollar) has fell back to gap window at 25.05 and found support. As soon as it starts rallying again, the market should follow by going lower (remember, they trade the opposite).
The 900 area is where I would look to go short too Jim. But only for short lived rally. Several days at leasts, a few weeks at most. Depends on what the charts look like after a rally from the 990 area starts.
I only said it “could” rally for several weeks… not that it would. It all depends on the charts at this point. Once the daily chart gets deeply oversold a multi-week rally is possible.
For now though, the trend is down, with short lived rallies to shake out the weak hands. Remember… I short right now.
I only said it “could” rally for several weeks… not that it would. It all depends on the charts at this point. Once the daily chart gets deeply oversold a multi-week rally is possible.
For now though, the trend is down, with short lived rallies to shake out the weak hands. Remember… I short right now.
I think you are over analyzing here trying to play perceived swings. This market could only muster an intraday high of 1131 for all the bluster and rebounding and elation at busting through 1105, etc and just as rapidly has come down again, most likely to burst through 1140 this time and then to who knows where. Why all of that gives you some great sense of a two or three week rally to new highs baffles me. I don't know how many more clues are needed from the economy, the administration, what is happening on the streets, what is happening throughout the world to alert you to the fact that times are bad and will soon move to ugly too. You can only prop up and patch a dilapidated house for so long before the obvious happens. There are a MYRIAD of things that can erupt at any point in time to really collapse this thing. Playing around guessing for some rally amidst of all that seems pretty ill advised to me.
Nenner Cycles show a drop to 900 after this break.
I wiyuld not go long. Any bounce will be intra day and short lived.
Ben, if you go long, you should be aware that the vix will drop big time on the rise. For that reason, you should either buy a option that is “in the money” (2-3 points on the spy), or do a spread to neutralize the vix going lower when the market rises.
If we get down to the low 990's, then I will do a 100/105 call spread. Meaning, I'll buy the 100 (July), and sell the 105. The market should easily get back to 105 before the expiration of the options.
In fact, I have a fake print of 112 spy, so that might be the target for opx? Don't know of course, but once the rally starts, it will squeeze all the bears out. You know that all too well by now.
If we get to 105 by this Friday, I'll close out the call spread, and go long with something else. Just remember, with spreads, you can't make any more money once it goes to the strike price of the one you sold (in this case, the 105).
Hope that helps…
Jay uses time cycles I believe, and maybe astrology too? RRman is pretty good too, and I must agree with him on this call. I believe today will be a trend down day, just like February the 4th.
Then tomorrow should open with a big sell off early, and then rally back add close positive like February the 5th did. Then rally the rest of the week and probably next week too.
Wow! A 10 point drop in Consumer Confidence!
rrman said… (interpreting Helge ?sp)
ben we pop at close up into 9pm central will be a nice pop short it hard! then down hard into 8-830 am Wed..,., cover everything then!
I will go long hard….
we will go up hard into July 6 or 7th
there will be some whipsaws but will hold tna/faz until that high helge shows july 5 market closed…
10:16 AM