Saturday, April 20, 2024

Weekend Update…

Monday Update...

No long post today, as nothing has change.  We had a another "pause" day, and anything could happen tomorrow.  The 60 minute chart has now become overbought , and can rollover at anytime.  The daily chart is forming a bear flag, and could drop another large red candle down as early as tomorrow.

It's really hard to say about tomorrow.  I could easily see a gap down to fulfill the bear flag, but if it fails, a large up day could also happen.  You can see the bear flag, if you're bearish, and you can see considation if you are bull.  I'm still very bearish, but I'm weary of surpises by the government.

The weekly chart tells me we should go down again, and put in another red candle, but again... the market could go either way right now.  I'm still very bearish of course.  However, some good news could easily spark a rally, so bears be careful.  We are truly in "no mans land" right now...

Red

P.S.  Sorry I wasn't around any, I was on the road driving all day.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The calm before storm...

Friday was basically a flat, as market shuffled companies around to re-balance the Russell index.  Overall though, the market still looks extremely bearish.  The technical pictures looks worst now, as the 60 minute chart has finally worked off the triple bullish divergence, by going positive (above the zero line), but now looks ready to roll back down again.

That's bad news, if you're a bull.  While it could go up a little more on Monday, it's going to be really hard too go very far.  The 15 minute chart is headed south again, and of course the daily, weekly, and monthly are still pointing down.  So while anything is possible, the charts tell me Monday should fall hard... especially when that 60 turns back down.

It could be rolling over already, and we could have a gap down on Monday, or it the 60 could push a little higher before rolling over.  So, while my gut warns me of a possible gap up and rally for several days (or weeks), the charts tell me otherwise.

That's one of the hardest things to do... follow what the charts tell you, and ignore your gut, unless you are Anna, who has an amazing ability to be right, by listening to her "gut instinct".  Of course she uses charts too, but when it's time to pull the trigger, it's her gut that she listens too.

I have to hand it to her, she makes a lot of great calls that way.  But I,on the other hand... I get killed listening to my gut.  So, the chart tell me that we could finally have that "Black Monday" that I've called for too many times (and been wrong each time), while my gut still worries about a gap up on Monday.

That goes to show you how good of a job they do of training us sheep to do the opposite of what they do... so they can take our money of course.  How else can they stay rich and powerful, while we struggle to make ends meat?  The market was designed and created to take money from the unsuspecting sheep (public... aka, the retail traders - as in you and me).

So, should I listen to what all the technical analysis, astro, elliottwave, etc... tell me?  Of course I should, but will I?  Well, I did this time (LOL), but I can't guarantee I'll always listen.  Turning off your emotions is the hardest thing to master... and I haven't master it yet.  I'll make more stupid emotional decisions in the future, I'm sure of that.

But for now, I remained short... based on the charts, not my emotions.  Nothing in any chart or pattern I see can justify a gap up and rally on Monday.  Sure, we feel like the market is oversold now, because we fell hard 4 days in a row, and closed flat today.  But the charts say the market isn't oversold yet, but still has room to go much lower.

It's times like these that test your will power as a trader.  After all, chasing a falling knife isn't a wise thing to do.  But, neither is going long when after a huge run up.  But, if the charts say there is more room to run (up or down), then you just have to do it.  They call it "Buying Overbought and Selling Oversold"... but the great thing now, is that we're NOT oversold yet!  Can you believe that?  After all these days down, the market isn't even in oversold territory yet.

That should make you feel even happier about going short today, as the daily chart is just now at the zero level with the histogram bars and the MACD's are just now ready to roll over and head back down south.  While they could turn back at anytime, I believe we need a capitulation day first... before any big rally can occur.

On the bullish side, the weekly chart is working it's way back up, from oversold conditions.  But, the bearish engulfing candle put in on that chart indicates that we will have another down week.  If this week goes down the first few days, and then rallies back later in the week, then it could end with a doji candle.

That would allow the following week to rally up, and work on putting in a lower (positive... aka, above zero) histogram tower on the daily chart, then the previous tower.  But for this week, I expect the daily to cross below the zero line for at least a few days, putting in a small (negative) tower.  Then again, it would go back up next week and rally the market.

But this week should go down early and rise back later in the week.  Will it?  Who knows, but that's what the daily chart indicates it is likely to do.  It would also match up with the weekly chart, as it is putting higher lows on the negative histogram tower, slowly working it's was up to the zero line and above.  However, on the weekly chart, I think it will just barely make it above the zero line before rolling back down in August.

So, now that you are totally confused, I'm bearish on Monday and maybe Tuesday, then bullish for a week or two.  That's what I see in the charts, but my gut tells me that it's going to rally on Monday and not stop for a couple of weeks.  I choose to ignore my gut, and go with the charts.  So, I'm short into Monday.

If Monday opens up, then I expect it to rally up a little in the morning, to allow the 60 minute chart to put in a few more positive histogram bars.  Then, I expect it to roll over and tank into the afternoon and early Tuesday morning.  While the market is turning bullish on many indicators right now, it still has just as many that are bearish too.  That's why it's so tough to forecast this weeks' move.  A big rally is coming soon, but I think we need  a big down day to have capitulation first.  Whether we get it or not, is anyones' guess?

Red

Sorry for late post gang.  I had internet problem, and was down for awhile.  But, I finally got the video uploaded to Youtube...

Red
Author: Red

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anoopsan
13 years ago

EUR/USD Trading near resistance levels
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Dumbocracy
Dumbocracy
13 years ago

This should make all the bears happy…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37970561

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Dumbocracy

Oh, yeah, that was bear porn all right. 🙂

Cracks me up how the kabuki theater is that the US dollar is some sort of bedrock, and not the same kind of toilet paper that they have in the EU. I expect the deflation angle to play out to the hilt, even to the point where people are taking pay cuts to keep up with the mighty dollar's purchasing power.

Utter shite.

Dumbocracy
Dumbocracy
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

AMEN!

Archimago
Archimago
13 years ago
Reply to  Dumbocracy

Interesting article. When I'm see this kind of porn on CNBC, I can't help but be paranoid as a bear…

Anyhow, can someone explain:
“The next shock and awe will be in the form of large scale QME (Quantitative Monetary Easing), but with one massive difference – it will be focused on lowering yields, not expanding money supply,” he said.

“So do not be surprised if the next QME is about guaranteeing yields at, say, 2 percent on the (10-year US Treasury) or lower,” he wrote.

How do you do QE to guarantee low yields WITHOUT this increasing money supply?

anoopsan
13 years ago

Nasdaq composite index support zone.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

good morning all. Another bear shakeout? Or a real pop? Still short and hating life 🙂

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Notice the gaps on spy 5 minute. Is anything weird???

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones Hour chart with resistance lines
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago

Fate of the TRIANGLE IN DOW JONES will be decided by the channel in EUR/USD
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago

I certainly don't follow the clown but everyday doomsayer Atilla just closed out all of his short positions. Claims now that he may re-short in October.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

lovely. thanks vinyl.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Do not be surrprized at a late sell off.

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Good Call Buddy! Stick with the cycle period I gave you until it stops working.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  RecnadnuS

What cycle period are you referring to Rec ?

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

Do you really care?! You strike me as a man that follows his own direction.

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

I don't that's why I said I don't follow him and called him a clown. He does have a following though and some here follow and quote him so I wanted to highlight what a tool he was to get out completely now.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago

Still holding my short …. bear flag up from friday – almost broken …

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

MSFT 24.3 CL , 9 month low is 24.1…That's beside the point…The p/e is 11.97, way too low, virtually makes a 25.5 exit, next few days a certainty.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

TLT : new high for the year. It looks like it's going to go parabolic. Now that's a good tell.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Gang, I was on the road all day today, so I couldn't post any. But, looks like I didn't miss anything. The daily chart has a bear flag on it, and it should play out soon.

I seen it go 4 days before falling, and we now have 2 days of doji candle's with a big red candle in front of them (last Thursday).

The 60 minute chart looks overbought now, but I'm sure will could trade sideways one more day. However, I personally think it's going to roll back down tomorrow. If so, with daily also rolling over, I could easily see a 200-300 point down day.

Should be tomorrow, but anything is possible? Some really good news could spark a rally, but I think it will be short lived… if it does?

I should be around more tomorrow. Refresh your page, as I added Monday's post to the Weekend post.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Missed you today Red – sorry you had to drive all night!

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

looks like I didn't miss much today either.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Yeah, I didn't miss a thing did I? LOL

You know, I just watched the chart pattern traders video's and his becoming very bearish now, and talking about closing up his long positions tomorrow. I'm glad he's bearish again, as he's been on a roll here lately and quite accurate.

I think we are going to have at least a 200-300 point down day… either tomorrow or Wednesday, as that daily chart looks really bearish now. The more day's it trades sideways, the more likely it will play out as a bear flag.

So, I'm looking for tomorrow or Wednesday to drop hard… unless some really good news comes out to rally the market of course. Even still, it's not likely to last with the jobs report forecasted to be bad again this Friday.

We'll see tomorrow I guess…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Gang, I was on the road all day today, so I couldn't post any. But, looks like I didn't miss anything. The daily chart has a bear flag on it, and it should play out soon.

I seen it go 4 days before falling, and we now have 2 days of doji candle's with a big red candle in front of them (last Thursday).

The 60 minute chart looks overbought now, but I'm sure will could trade sideways one more day. However, I personally think it's going to roll back down tomorrow. If so, with daily also rolling over, I could easily see a 200-300 point down day.

Should be tomorrow, but anything is possible? Some really good news could spark a rally, but I think it will be short lived… if it does?

I should be around more tomorrow. Refresh your page, as I added Monday's post to the Weekend post.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

BIDU, usually is never safe to short sell….It is now…look for a retest of May lows 63-65 going forward. imo…It's controversial because there are so many BIDU bulls out there……Keep this in mind, I know how to kill bulls with my teeth.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

Hi Red,
Between XOM and CVX, CVX is the more likely to make more money, going long. I think I have to make up my mind pretty soon. I don't know how long CVX will be at these low prices.

Imaginasian23
Imaginasian23
13 years ago

Good Morning Guys!

Had to share this. Its from a poster by the name morenmore on clear$tation. I hope he does not mind.

http://clearstation.etrade.com:80/cgi-bin/bbs?p

This should make some bears happy if it pans out.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Imaginasian23

Thanks for the link… sounds good to me. Let's do it.

anoopsan
13 years ago

U.S. Markets view before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

So far so good gang, as the futures are down nicely this morning. Of course they could run them up in the hour, or run them up all day. But, I think we are going to gap down, and continue down all day today.

The daily chart is definitely going to roll over on this gap down, and the 60 minute chart with also roll over. Depending on how deep the 60 burys the histogram bars, we could have 2 straight down days before it gets very oversold and and rolls back up.

Great for the bears of course. But, Thursday and Friday will likely be bullish, especially if today and tomorrow really tank. The jobs report will be factored into todays' sell off (should today continue down, and not bounce at the open?).

The 1040 area that has been hit so many times now, should break this time. But, no guarantees of course. If 1040 breaks today, then I'm looking for that 100.72 spy fake print on Wednesday.

Of course if we open and bounce, then we could but in another doji candle today. I don't think it will happen, but it's possibly… especially with light volume. So let's monitor the volume today to see if it increases. If so, then we'll probably trend lower all day.

Good luck to us all…

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Thanks Anna,

Sounds good to me. Let's go up to the casper at 106.59 in the morning for the head fake, and sell off the rest of the day and tomorrow too. I'm lovin' it (a McDonald's thing) LOL

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

you got saved at the last minute again what did I tell you last week that I expected Tuesday to be the big down turn

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

LOL… Let's hope so. I'd like to see 1040 break today and then capitulation tomorrow. We should hit that fake print of 100.72 spy then, or deeper? I like 990 spx even better. 🙂

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have 2 caspers on twitter

anoopsan
13 years ago

Triangle in dow jones gives a gap down
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Were is everyone? They should be celebrating right now!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Too busy trying to figure out what to do???

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Well, I'm hanging on short. I know we will bounce around the 1040 area again, but I think we will fall through it this time (after the bounce of course)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow, we're pounding hard again at that 1040 area of support, and it's only an hour into the day. Plenty of time to break it.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

Buzz up! 0
Print
Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Retail Writer, On Tuesday June 29, 2010, 10:08 am
NEW YORK (AP) — Americans, worried about jobs and the sluggish economic recovery, had another relapse in confidence, causing a widely watched barometer to tumble in June.

The Conference Board, a private research group based in New York, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped almost 10 points to 52.9, down from the revised 62.7 in May. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting the reading to dip slightly to 62.8

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Wow! A 10 point drop in Consumer Confidence!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

rrman on jawizz say helge's says we close on the low today and go lower wed am. then rally.

jawizz appears to be wrong today.

do they use astrology? I have a problem with this

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

rrman said… (interpreting Helge ?sp)
ben we pop at close up into 9pm central will be a nice pop short it hard! then down hard into 8-830 am Wed..,., cover everything then!
I will go long hard….
we will go up hard into July 6 or 7th
there will be some whipsaws but will hold tna/faz until that high helge shows july 5 market closed…

10:16 AM

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Jay uses time cycles I believe, and maybe astrology too? RRman is pretty good too, and I must agree with him on this call. I believe today will be a trend down day, just like February the 4th.

Then tomorrow should open with a big sell off early, and then rally back add close positive like February the 5th did. Then rally the rest of the week and probably next week too.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Nenner Cycles show a drop to 900 after this break.

I wiyuld not go long. Any bounce will be intra day and short lived.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

The 900 area is where I would look to go short too Jim. But only for short lived rally. Several days at leasts, a few weeks at most. Depends on what the charts look like after a rally from the 990 area starts.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Ben, if you go long, you should be aware that the vix will drop big time on the rise. For that reason, you should either buy a option that is “in the money” (2-3 points on the spy), or do a spread to neutralize the vix going lower when the market rises.

If we get down to the low 990's, then I will do a 100/105 call spread. Meaning, I'll buy the 100 (July), and sell the 105. The market should easily get back to 105 before the expiration of the options.

In fact, I have a fake print of 112 spy, so that might be the target for opx? Don't know of course, but once the rally starts, it will squeeze all the bears out. You know that all too well by now.

If we get to 105 by this Friday, I'll close out the call spread, and go long with something else. Just remember, with spreads, you can't make any more money once it goes to the strike price of the one you sold (in this case, the 105).

Hope that helps…

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago

I think you are over analyzing here trying to play perceived swings. This market could only muster an intraday high of 1131 for all the bluster and rebounding and elation at busting through 1105, etc and just as rapidly has come down again, most likely to burst through 1140 this time and then to who knows where. Why all of that gives you some great sense of a two or three week rally to new highs baffles me. I don't know how many more clues are needed from the economy, the administration, what is happening on the streets, what is happening throughout the world to alert you to the fact that times are bad and will soon move to ugly too. You can only prop up and patch a dilapidated house for so long before the obvious happens. There are a MYRIAD of things that can erupt at any point in time to really collapse this thing. Playing around guessing for some rally amidst of all that seems pretty ill advised to me.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

I only said it “could” rally for several weeks… not that it would. It all depends on the charts at this point. Once the daily chart gets deeply oversold a multi-week rally is possible.

For now though, the trend is down, with short lived rallies to shake out the weak hands. Remember… I short right now.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

You da man.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I only said it “could” rally for several weeks… not that it would. It all depends on the charts at this point. Once the daily chart gets deeply oversold a multi-week rally is possible.

For now though, the trend is down, with short lived rallies to shake out the weak hands. Remember… I short right now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The UUP (the dollar) has fell back to gap window at 25.05 and found support. As soon as it starts rallying again, the market should follow by going lower (remember, they trade the opposite).

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

good morning all – finally the day we have all been waiting for and I had to be out all morning! Still short.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Glad you're here girl. Hope all went well?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

obviously not! It concerns me that AAPL is down so much already. Usually when it gets to it's moving averages (there now), it pops.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

We will probably trade sideways until the last hour. Then we'll see if the 1040 level breaks or not. I think it will.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I hope you are right. Funny, how they decided to shrink yahoo finance today! Same thing happened over the weekend.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

What do you mean… shrink?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It's so small you can barely read it, right?

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

if you have a scroll wheel on your mouse click on web page hold ctrl key and scroll up or down to make page easier to read…to go back to normal ctrl 0…

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  bigbadwolfusa

thanks!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Why do you think it will break today?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Because it's been hit now multiple times now (4, if you look at the 60 minute chart, and 3 on the daily). It gets weaker with every hit. I think it will break into the close today.

I think today will be like Feb. 4th, and tomorrow like Feb. 5th… which had a hard reversal after the early morning sell off. We have that 100.72 spy fake print from earlier this month. I think we are going to hit it tomorrow.

We also have one at 112 spy, and that could be hit by opx? Hard to say on that one… and we could only bounce a few days and sell off more. But, you know how they like to squeeze the bears on opx week… so we should be going up during that time period.

If we don't break the 1040 today, into the close, then they should gap it down below it tomorrow morning. But with it being hit now 3-4 times, it could break into the close?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

No doubt it will break today or tomorrow, but they could just as easily run it up now into the close and then take it back down tomorrow. Anyway, I'm holding cuz that's just the kinda gal I am!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Who told ya about AAPL, eh?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

??? It's the market leader and it seems that whenever it reaches it's moving averages, it pops. What do you think?

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yeah, it always drops after a new phone release. I can tell you that the antenna issue is big. It would not surprise me if the phones are recalled. Do not believe the hype.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Thank you “eggman”!!!

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

I have one for testing purposes and I can say the antenna issue is big, even after I've lost reception sometimes I have to reboot it to get the signal back.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

try putting a key across the top. the bars will disappear.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

When I loose the signal on mine it doesn't come back until I reboot the damn thing.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

Jimhobson

“after this break” you mean if 1040 breaks or another wave down in the future after this breaks corrects?

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

quadruple bottoms are too rare. AND we get 10 pt drop in consumer confidence. a multiday bounce from here does not make sence

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Agreed Ben…

Any multi-day bounce should come from a much lower level.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones week chart with a broken rising wedge
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

I think we are going to chop around until the last hour, putting in a triangle… which I think will breakdown again.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

I picked up some epv this am. i think Europe is in big trouble.

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago

BTW do you know who the egg man was???????

Iamtheggman
Iamtheggman
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

Eric B. from the Animals

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheggman

Bravo then I guess you also know why………….

Iamthegman
Iamthegman
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

Go Eggman go! 🙂 I believe that was the exact quote…..

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamthegman

Yea funny. Something like that or go get it Eggman.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

I knew there was a reason I liked you; other than you sided with me on the conspiracy theories 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

I thought eggman was a character who changed appearance? Dr. Eggman that is?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

This just in… 1070.50 ES print. Real or Fake?

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

ut oh, doesn't look like a late fill.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Yeah, definitely worrisome. But, I'm going with the charts, and they say we continue down. Who knows when that print plays out? I don't see that tomorrow, or today. Too many trapped bulls right now, and they will continue selling on any pop higher, pushing the market back down.

Al
Al
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

doubt it will happen today…you can't just fix a broken trend the same day..

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Al

I doubt it too Al, it's just a print to put in your storage folder. Once the selling is done, and the rally starts… then you can pull it out and use it.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Volume not there Red. Although it could still mean we go higher.

anoopsan
13 years ago
monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Thanks as always!

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

This puppy is weak. It looks like it's going to break to new lows soon.
Don't listen to the Jaywiz group today. They are wrong. I can see a low early tomorrow morning but it depends how hard we sell off into the close. The June 1930 fractal calls for a drop to the 1040 level but the wave count calls for a bigger drop. Well Armed (Anthony Allyn) has speedline support at 1015. SP might want to head for the Nov 2009 support area (SP 10-29 LOL) and slightly penetrate it before a bounce (which would be a 1 day affair)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

I don't know how accurate he is either (we all get it wrong a lot), as he kept calling for a 47 point drop, and then a 57 point, during the opx week for June.

Of course it never happened, as they almost always squeeze out the short during ever opx week, and pin the spy where all the puts expire worthless.

But, maybe he's right on this call? Who's knows? I've had many bad calls too.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

funny, atilla mentioned that 1015 number as well. Anyway, I hope to cover in the 990s whenever that may be.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I don't know how that will correlate with 100.72 spy, but either way… we got more selling coming I believe.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

A break of 1040 will be very serious

Fund managers will bail on that IMO

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

This is the 5th time we have hit now. I doubt it holds during the last hour of the day.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Russell 2000 has already made a new intra-day low

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago

I just saw what I think is a fake print on C. June 29, 13:04. $3.317. A real FP, or a fat finger on the market?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Hackswell

Can you post it for me?

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

How do I post graphics?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Hackswell

Hold down the “shift” key and the “PrtSc” key at the same time. That will copy what's on your screen to the cache memory. You can then open up some program that allows you too paste pictures.

I use Frontpage, but you can do it in Word. Just “right-click” and choose paste, the blank page. Or, hold down the “ctrl” key and hit the “V” letter to paste it.

Then save the page, and email it to me and I'll upload it so all can see it. You can also set up a free account with ScreenCast.com and upload it yourself. Then post the link.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I got it Hackswell… thanks.

Here's Citigroup's print of $3.87

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Nope… mine was for 3.317… DOWN. Saw it on Scottrade, too. Got both screenshots from ST and Goog.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Looks like they are trying to save the day again.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I don't think so Jim. I see more selling tomorrow. If we don't break the 1040 area of support today, then it's highly likely it will gap down below it tomorrow morning. I really think we are going to see that 100.72 spy print before any decent rally.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks Hackswell,

Here they are, the same print on two different sites (for Citigroup at $3.317… that is)

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I saw that too red on TDwaterhouse.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

I don't know how much weighting Citigroup has in the spx, but if it goes to that level, it could match up with the 100.72 spy print?

anoopsan
13 years ago

Price deviation from moving average
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like the damn just broke gang! Down we go… Yippee!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

1040 is broken. this is a new ball game.

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago

S&P 500 1040 has been breached! Can the bulls pull it back up? Or is it GERONIMO?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Anyone think we will gap down tomorrow?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I do.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL… me too Monica.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

“caveat” – I am usually wrong!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I don't think you will be wrong on this call. The daily, 60 and 15 minute charts are all pointing down together. Unless they defy gravity tomorrow, we should continue down further… at least in the morning session.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't believe the technicals really matter.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

They do matter Monica, but learning to read them correctly is the thing I haven't mastered yet. Maybe I never will?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I believe we close at 1033. Holding into the AM. Hope i don't shoot myself if i am wrong!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

vix has gotten to 34.92 (AKA 349) casper. Should I make something of it?

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Only if he is a friendly ghost!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Possibly Monica? But, I'm staying short into tomorrow morning. Many traders will be late to sell I believe, and will unload more in the morning… especially after the 1040 area just broke.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Watch the news and see how it is spun!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Are you implying we rally tomorrow from manipulated news? I don't see that possible.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

me too. but you know what happens when we are on the same side!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

don't tell me they are going to take it to 1044 again!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Mr Bill says Oh nooooooooooooooooooo

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Do not be hard on yourself. No one knows. It amazes me how folks continually prognosticate as tho' they do. This game is like Baseball. If you are a .300 hitter your are a hall of famer. I know their have been others on this site that have tracked the bloggers. The number seems to stick.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

What do you mean? “The number seems to stick.”

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

OK. Maybe I am typing too fast for my own good 🙂

What I meant to say was at the last picot low Cramer came out with a sell. The market rallied up. I do not want him to issue a sell.

By sticking, I mean that I have casually observed the other blogs, I do not think it would be fair to mention names but you are savvy enough to know and it appears that about a third of all calls are accurate. By accurate I mean there are no revisions and it plays out as called.

What I have learned from your blog and one other is that most users of TA do not understand the math behind the indicator and draw conclusions from casual observation.

Or as my stat teacher said 'correlation does not imply causation'

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

I disagree eggman. I have no idea where this market is going but somebody does 🙂

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It depends how the lamestream media plays it up. If it makes the headlines you will see the huddled masses following their beloved Cramer to the door. Just hope Cramer says buy!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Not sure I follow you on that one? People follow Cramer, (and yes he's wrong a lot… err, he tells the public the opposite of what he's doing), but don't we want him to tell his followers to sell?

I see more selling in the morning tomorrow, but it's possible that we rally back in the afternoon.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

If we close below 1040 there is a strong probability we go down hard through the week.

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