I also mentioned if SPX down 4 days in a row then there’re more than 70% chances a green day the next day. The chart below shows all the recent cases when SPX down 4 days in a row this is from cobra
In reply to a comment made in your last post, Anthony Allyn is well-armed from the Yahoo SKF board. I noticed he has quite a following from his public chart lists at stockcharts. He disappeared there for a while after March 2009 when he was still bearish. I was wondering where he posted these days. So he has a blog. I always enjoyed his style. He also had a knack for riling Kenny.
I don't know what to think about the VIX print that IlliniKap posted, as it's clearly “Way Too High” to ever play out. Possibly, they actually made a real mistake, when posting a fake print? LOL
It could simply have the decimal in the wrong place? Maybe it's not 349.72, but instead 34.972… which could easily hit tomorrow, should we tank really hard.
Anyway, just food for thought. Here's a repost of the print… (Thanks for catching it IlliniKap)
Hey Dread, what's your opinion on that Anthony D. Allyn blog, and his charts? He's very bearish, and was calling for 47 points down one day last week, and then it went up the next day… and then he called for a 57 point down day after that.
Doesn't he know the market is always manipulated… especially during opx weeks! Everyone that's be around for at least a year, knows that opx week is controlled and pinned on a level to pay out the least open interest contracts.
In this case, the market had a ton more puts in June, then calls. Volume dried up, allowing them to move it up every day until Friday. Calling for a big sell off on opx week, with the puts way out numbering the calls, is not a wise call.
Sure, I wanted it too go down 57 points, but I knew it wouldn't. I've seen too many opx weeks, and they always squeeze out the side with the most open interest contracts… usually the bears.
Other them him not including important factors into his analysis, his charts are pretty good. But I can't simply turn a blind eye to opx week, and assume it will fall based on elliottwave patterns or technical analysis… I know better then that.
Hell Ben… I'm guessing too! If it makes you feel any better, Cobra backtested 4 down days in a row (back to 2002), and if you went short at the close of the 4th day, and closed out your shorts at the close of the 5th day, you had an 80% success rate.
watch out $cpci is way down. this is the smart money I'm told and it means the big money (who is correct) the puts are low compared to the calls see stock charts.
this very low reading is correlated with market rallies
but I can't tell if (maybe) it can wait a couple of days
I understand…I admire your deductions about them and feel it is not an unwarranted assumption but was hoping to hear that someone has found them to be x% accurate within a said time span or in reference to the date it is posted with(like your 6/25 one). I have a proclivity to believe in the premise of the fake prints based on market manipulation but I feel without more statistical data we are just grasping at straws. Not that I am beating up on you here, it is just that anyone can arbitrarily pick a date and say at “sometime” the market will go there. Probability agrees with that. Otherwise we look like we are trying to fit data to our theories versus proving our theories with data. At the very least, my goal is to be able to understand them. thanks
They all play out at some point… when is a question I can't answer. But should we tank tomorrow, I'd be looking for one of those prints to be hit. The 100.72 spy print could hit next week, next year, or tomorrow? No one knows… but consider them like support and resistance levels, as when you are getting close to one, it should be tagged before leaving in the other direction.
Here's his link…
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
I also mentioned if SPX down 4 days in a row then there’re more than 70% chances a green day the next day. The chart below shows all the recent cases when SPX down 4 days in a row this is from cobra
In reply to a comment made in your last post, Anthony Allyn is well-armed from the Yahoo SKF board. I noticed he has quite a following from his public chart lists at stockcharts. He disappeared there for a while after March 2009 when he was still bearish. I was wondering where he posted these days. So he has a blog. I always enjoyed his style. He also had a knack for riling Kenny.
I don't know what to think about the VIX print that IlliniKap posted, as it's clearly “Way Too High” to ever play out. Possibly, they actually made a real mistake, when posting a fake print? LOL
It could simply have the decimal in the wrong place? Maybe it's not 349.72, but instead 34.972… which could easily hit tomorrow, should we tank really hard.
Anyway, just food for thought. Here's a repost of the print… (Thanks for catching it IlliniKap)
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
Hey Dread, what's your opinion on that Anthony D. Allyn blog, and his charts? He's very bearish, and was calling for 47 points down one day last week, and then it went up the next day… and then he called for a 57 point down day after that.
Doesn't he know the market is always manipulated… especially during opx weeks! Everyone that's be around for at least a year, knows that opx week is controlled and pinned on a level to pay out the least open interest contracts.
In this case, the market had a ton more puts in June, then calls. Volume dried up, allowing them to move it up every day until Friday. Calling for a big sell off on opx week, with the puts way out numbering the calls, is not a wise call.
Sure, I wanted it too go down 57 points, but I knew it wouldn't. I've seen too many opx weeks, and they always squeeze out the side with the most open interest contracts… usually the bears.
Other them him not including important factors into his analysis, his charts are pretty good. But I can't simply turn a blind eye to opx week, and assume it will fall based on elliottwave patterns or technical analysis… I know better then that.
How about me? LOL…
Hell Ben… I'm guessing too! If it makes you feel any better, Cobra backtested 4 down days in a row (back to 2002), and if you went short at the close of the 4th day, and closed out your shorts at the close of the 5th day, you had an 80% success rate.
Go read his “after the bell” post…
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/06/06…
in addition:
Jim Carolan is bearish till June 29 +or-
Persverento is calling for a huge correction June 28 (we'll see)
How bout me??? Don't listen to me
watch out $cpci is way down. this is the smart money I'm told and it means the big money (who is correct) the puts are low compared to the calls see stock charts.
this very low reading is correlated with market rallies
but I can't tell if (maybe) it can wait a couple of days
on jaywizz, jay says gap down tomorrow
rrman say gap up ????
I understand…I admire your deductions about them and feel it is not an unwarranted assumption but was hoping to hear that someone has found them to be x% accurate within a said time span or in reference to the date it is posted with(like your 6/25 one).
I have a proclivity to believe in the premise of the fake prints based on market manipulation but I feel without more statistical data we are just grasping at straws. Not that I am beating up on you here, it is just that anyone can arbitrarily pick a date and say at “sometime” the market will go there. Probability agrees with that.
Otherwise we look like we are trying to fit data to our theories versus proving our theories with data. At the very least, my goal is to be able to understand them. thanks
They all play out at some point… when is a question I can't answer. But should we tank tomorrow, I'd be looking for one of those prints to be hit. The 100.72 spy print could hit next week, next year, or tomorrow? No one knows… but consider them like support and resistance levels, as when you are getting close to one, it should be tagged before leaving in the other direction.