I agree you on that statement. It looks like the perfect reason to go long, and under normal circumstances, I would. But, I have other reasons to believe that a huge sell off is coming in the next 2 weeks, and technical analysis, rallies on bad news, or any other reasons to be bullish… have nothing to do with my reasons.
Recall the reaction to this morning's extremely disappointing retail report: a reactionary selloff which soon stabilized, capping with a green close on the highs. Yesterday's jobless claims were also a disappointment, and the markets were up huge when all was said and done.
Rallies on bad news should be taken into account, as should selloffs on good news.
By all means, criticize and debate to your heart's content. My only suggestion is that when it comes time to put money into the market, you consider only the market.
If the markets stabilize and just trade sideways, OTM options holders are triply screwed, facing theta burn, vol crush and zero intrinsic value. Naked, OTM options should be held in strongly trending markets or not at all.
We had a strong trend down from the end of April for about a month, and since then we've been rangebound, though wide and volatile. The trend may resume, it may reverse, or the range may hold a while longer. From where I sit, I don't see a high-confidence case to be made for any, so I wouldn't express a position with such a risky, unidirectional instrument as June or July OTM puts. FWIW.
But I have so much fun picking on those guys Rosabarba… it's just part of my nature to point out evil. And believe me, it's easy to find these days! LOL
Glad you're having fun Newbear…
Lot's of pain for the bears now, but it will be rewarded later on.
I'm still short and in awful pain. But I'm having fun in Montreal for the grand prix.
Fair enough. Do you have a target in mind, or a level above which your thesis is invalidated?
Cramer said top of market 10500, down to 9700, range bound. But I think based on EPS, top is 10700-10800 area
I agree you on that statement. It looks like the perfect reason to go long, and under normal circumstances, I would. But, I have other reasons to believe that a huge sell off is coming in the next 2 weeks, and technical analysis, rallies on bad news, or any other reasons to be bullish… have nothing to do with my reasons.
Recall the reaction to this morning's extremely disappointing retail report: a reactionary selloff which soon stabilized, capping with a green close on the highs. Yesterday's jobless claims were also a disappointment, and the markets were up huge when all was said and done.
Rallies on bad news should be taken into account, as should selloffs on good news.
By all means, criticize and debate to your heart's content. My only suggestion is that when it comes time to put money into the market, you consider only the market.
If the markets stabilize and just trade sideways, OTM options holders are triply screwed, facing theta burn, vol crush and zero intrinsic value. Naked, OTM options should be held in strongly trending markets or not at all.
We had a strong trend down from the end of April for about a month, and since then we've been rangebound, though wide and volatile. The trend may resume, it may reverse, or the range may hold a while longer. From where I sit, I don't see a high-confidence case to be made for any, so I wouldn't express a position with such a risky, unidirectional instrument as June or July OTM puts. FWIW.
But I have so much fun picking on those guys Rosabarba… it's just part of my nature to point out evil. And believe me, it's easy to find these days! LOL
Thanks much, knew that, didn't check. Well i got nothing.
wave 4 can not go into wave 1 unless it is a diagonal
only hope for bear is that this is 1-2, 1-2 and 1-2 situation, which is going to be very rare
and on the other side, $vix is very close to be oversold, positive div on MACD hist., although this is not very reliable