Indeed, though if I may say, the urge to curse Geitner/GS/Fed/PPT/whatever can also be an expensive habit, since it becomes a way of convincing ourselves that our essential market views are correct and moves against us are short-term disruptions caused by extraneous forces. Again, it is something I saw and shared in spades last year, and it was expensive.
There is only one market. Whether the powers that be are “manipulating” it, however you chose to define the term, is irrelevant. All you want is to be on the right side of it.
Again, the bear might still be alive and kicking, but the action this week doesn't support the confident certainty I see on this board. Reducing leverage and/or hedging strike me as the prudent thing to do in this environment, bull or bear.
I feel the charts have said one thing and the price has done another…so I am going back to the very basics and use the 200sma as my resistance. If we can get through that then to the 50sma…but the vol is pitiful and even today was the worst so I am not betting that it gets through the 200sma but if it does thats my plan…I am short 115 and 108.40 so we will see…
Thanks for the advice. I must agree that predicting this market is very difficult. Reading the technical indicators is helpful, but it seems that many times they are wrong, or I've left out a piece of the puzzle… which means I'm reading them wrong.
As for Monday, I see it down, but that doesn't mean anything these days… the government can do what it wants to do (with enough free money of course). Maybe I need to call up Tim Geithner and ask him what's in store for next week? LOL
Predicting day-to-day action, esp. over a weekend, is a bit of a coin flip, and we've already had a month of wild swings. It's possible the weak longs have already been shaken out in a month-long liquidation, and now a tenuous double bottom will form the base for a renewed move higher. Even if that's true, I have no idea what it means for Monday. I do believe holding (as opposed to quick-trading) naked, OTM, short-dated options of any kind is not a consistent winner and should be avoided.
About this time last year, I was a bear telling myself the same things I've been reading on this board, and it ended up costing me a lot more than it should have. It can be a huge mistake to impose one's own private trading opinions and sense of financial morality on the markets if the markets don't confirm. Notice how market leaders (e.g., GS, AAPL, etc.) performed today relative to the SPX, albeit in light volume.
Momentum indicators and other technical tools, while useful, are secondary to price action. If support holds and resistance starts giving way, the focus should be on dip-buying until resistance begins to hold and support begins to fail.
While I don't believe the current bear is necessarily dead, it is certainly possible it has done its worst for the time being. Something to consider, anyway.
Very true, as I should have taken profits and reloaded at a higher price. As for next week, I certainly see Monday down… but by Friday the market could reverse back up? It's OPX week, and Triple OPX at that. Wild swings are likely to happen, I believe.
Last chart I have with bear hope…
http://www.screencast.com/users/rcjstocks/folde…
If accurate, Monday would be the start of wave 3 of 5.
I agree, Mr. market can bend down and sell off from here to under 1000
we just have to wait and see it is a pullback or sell off next week.
Indeed, though if I may say, the urge to curse Geitner/GS/Fed/PPT/whatever can also be an expensive habit, since it becomes a way of convincing ourselves that our essential market views are correct and moves against us are short-term disruptions caused by extraneous forces. Again, it is something I saw and shared in spades last year, and it was expensive.
There is only one market. Whether the powers that be are “manipulating” it, however you chose to define the term, is irrelevant. All you want is to be on the right side of it.
Again, the bear might still be alive and kicking, but the action this week doesn't support the confident certainty I see on this board. Reducing leverage and/or hedging strike me as the prudent thing to do in this environment, bull or bear.
SP 500 End of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I feel the charts have said one thing and the price has done another…so I am going back to the very basics and use the 200sma as my resistance. If we can get through that then to the 50sma…but the vol is pitiful and even today was the worst so I am not betting that it gets through the 200sma but if it does thats my plan…I am short 115 and 108.40 so we will see…
Thanks for the advice. I must agree that predicting this market is very difficult. Reading the technical indicators is helpful, but it seems that many times they are wrong, or I've left out a piece of the puzzle… which means I'm reading them wrong.
As for Monday, I see it down, but that doesn't mean anything these days… the government can do what it wants to do (with enough free money of course). Maybe I need to call up Tim Geithner and ask him what's in store for next week? LOL
look at the daily charts, MACD, Stoch, and RSI all have positive div. it is going up, how far, i DO NOT KNOW
We will pullback on Monday, we are overbought on 60 mins, get rid of the puts, load some calls
Predicting day-to-day action, esp. over a weekend, is a bit of a coin flip, and we've already had a month of wild swings. It's possible the weak longs have already been shaken out in a month-long liquidation, and now a tenuous double bottom will form the base for a renewed move higher. Even if that's true, I have no idea what it means for Monday. I do believe holding (as opposed to quick-trading) naked, OTM, short-dated options of any kind is not a consistent winner and should be avoided.
About this time last year, I was a bear telling myself the same things I've been reading on this board, and it ended up costing me a lot more than it should have. It can be a huge mistake to impose one's own private trading opinions and sense of financial morality on the markets if the markets don't confirm. Notice how market leaders (e.g., GS, AAPL, etc.) performed today relative to the SPX, albeit in light volume.
Momentum indicators and other technical tools, while useful, are secondary to price action. If support holds and resistance starts giving way, the focus should be on dip-buying until resistance begins to hold and support begins to fail.
While I don't believe the current bear is necessarily dead, it is certainly possible it has done its worst for the time being. Something to consider, anyway.
Very true, as I should have taken profits and reloaded at a higher price. As for next week, I certainly see Monday down… but by Friday the market could reverse back up? It's OPX week, and Triple OPX at that. Wild swings are likely to happen, I believe.
Thanks, San!