I don't doubt that we are near a bottom… we are very, very close. I'm just not sure that we are there yet? Maybe? I think when the market is close to a top or bottom, the signals get equally mixed, so as to confuse as many people as possible.
I'm definitely showing bottoming signals, but my gut tells me this is just a trap… for the bulls. I know I've been wrong many times in the past, and I could be wrong on this one too.
But today just seemed like an ordinary day… as in “NO Panic”. You have too admit that it's awful odd to bottom without panic… meaning “capitulation”. Then all those 6's in closing prices I posted has me spooked that they are still sending out a message.
Then reading Raymond Merriman's weekly post on Astrology (on my blogroll) is also negative until June 25th…. remember that Wilshire chart I posted? What if June 25th is the market bottom?
You could be right, as I see your point clearly. From a technical basis, this market looks like it could be bottomed? But, I'm going to stay short and see what bearish Thursday and Friday bring.
I won't disagree with that… black candles are very accurate reversal patterns. But, we are both just guessing based on past history, using technical analysis, and pattern formation.
I'm sure that they are out to trick everyone, so they can take all the money… from the bulls and bears alike. LOL
The correlation between spot oil and $spx is .9 (1 being perfect). Would you take 90% odds?
Granted, the black candle isn't perfect. I have at least one “miss” on that chart.
I am very familiar with Cobra's blog. He's not wrong to suggest that you short any bounce in $spx until proven wrong. What's different? The black candle in DTO is different.
Looking at that chart, I would definitely agree with you. It looks pretty clear cut, and simple too me. I would short it, no questions asked.
But, that doesn't mean for sure that the spx will go up. Yes, oil is a big player in it, but there are others too. Hard to say for sure, as there are a lot of mixed signals.
Alternatively, forget about channels for a moment. Just look at the candlestick on $spx. Zoom out one year, and look for a similar candle — you'll find one at the Feb. lows/reversal day. I don't see any others like it.
That is possible, but in order for that to happen… the market must gap up out of this falling channel. Futures are falling back down now, as I type this. No gap up tomorrow means we will still be in the channel, and I'd expect a lower low to happen.
Hard to say, given how much of this move will play out in the futures. I think a maximum for tomorrow is in the neighborhood of 1095-1100. I think we will gap up to as high as 1090 (end of wave 3), spending most of the day in a meandering wave 4 before a squeeze into the close. That will be “A”, with “B” to come on Thursday. “C” should finish by Monday.
There is a lot that can happen between now and then, however.
Financials look extremely bullish today, and I think they are leading this move. $spx is lagging.
Another friend emailed me this… and not the friend you are all thinking of. He was able to notice something I missed, and if you are a “believer” then you can see that danger is still ahead….
Quote….
The New York Stock Composite closed at 6666 to day (if one rounds the 4th number) and at one point I saw the Dow down 99.66 at 9966 and I saw the SP at 1066 and 1069 and the 50 day average of $RUT is at 696
I don't doubt that we are near a bottom… we are very, very close. I'm just not sure that we are there yet? Maybe? I think when the market is close to a top or bottom, the signals get equally mixed, so as to confuse as many people as possible.
I'm definitely showing bottoming signals, but my gut tells me this is just a trap… for the bulls. I know I've been wrong many times in the past, and I could be wrong on this one too.
But today just seemed like an ordinary day… as in “NO Panic”. You have too admit that it's awful odd to bottom without panic… meaning “capitulation”. Then all those 6's in closing prices I posted has me spooked that they are still sending out a message.
Then reading Raymond Merriman's weekly post on Astrology (on my blogroll) is also negative until June 25th…. remember that Wilshire chart I posted? What if June 25th is the market bottom?
You could be right, as I see your point clearly. From a technical basis, this market looks like it could be bottomed? But, I'm going to stay short and see what bearish Thursday and Friday bring.
Don't forget that Shanghai has put in a bottom that hasn't been tested in two days. It tends to lead. Ditto for copper.
I won't disagree with that… black candles are very accurate reversal patterns. But, we are both just guessing based on past history, using technical analysis, and pattern formation.
I'm sure that they are out to trick everyone, so they can take all the money… from the bulls and bears alike. LOL
The correlation between spot oil and $spx is .9 (1 being perfect). Would you take 90% odds?
Granted, the black candle isn't perfect. I have at least one “miss” on that chart.
I am very familiar with Cobra's blog. He's not wrong to suggest that you short any bounce in $spx until proven wrong. What's different? The black candle in DTO is different.
Looking at that chart, I would definitely agree with you. It looks pretty clear cut, and simple too me. I would short it, no questions asked.
But, that doesn't mean for sure that the spx will go up. Yes, oil is a big player in it, but there are others too. Hard to say for sure, as there are a lot of mixed signals.
Read Cobra's blog too, he's still bearish…
Yes, that's possible.
Alternatively, forget about channels for a moment. Just look at the candlestick on $spx. Zoom out one year, and look for a similar candle — you'll find one at the Feb. lows/reversal day. I don't see any others like it.
Here's another chart:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
When DTO paints a black candle, odds strongly favor downside continuation.
That is possible, but in order for that to happen… the market must gap up out of this falling channel. Futures are falling back down now, as I type this. No gap up tomorrow means we will still be in the channel, and I'd expect a lower low to happen.
Hard to say, given how much of this move will play out in the futures. I think a maximum for tomorrow is in the neighborhood of 1095-1100. I think we will gap up to as high as 1090 (end of wave 3), spending most of the day in a meandering wave 4 before a squeeze into the close. That will be “A”, with “B” to come on Thursday. “C” should finish by Monday.
There is a lot that can happen between now and then, however.
Financials look extremely bullish today, and I think they are leading this move. $spx is lagging.
Another friend emailed me this… and not the friend you are all thinking of. He was able to notice something I missed, and if you are a “believer” then you can see that danger is still ahead….
Quote….
The New York Stock Composite closed at 6666 to day (if one rounds the 4th number) and at one point I saw the Dow down 99.66 at 9966 and I saw the SP at 1066 and 1069 and the 50 day average of $RUT is at 696
End Quote…
Yeah, I signed up. Not much in their back office, but I guess they do most of their stuff through email instead of posting it?