So what are your thought on tomorrow Dread? If the print in the picture plays out to the downside, then that could be a “B” wave down in an “ABC” move up to 1090 or 1100 spx.
If you signed up for BAM Investors free trial, they have oil going down to 55 in June, and Gold going to 888… plus they have spx going down to 529, which is way too bearish for my thinking…
Did I just say that's too bearish? What's wrong with me? LOL
If this was a wave 1 of 5, the wave 2 retrace should have stopped at 1065 (50%) or 1071 (61.8%). The /es has taken out the equivalent of nearly 1086, which is still larger than the next higher retracement level. Technically, yes, anything short of Friday's high would still make this a wave 2. But when there is greater than a 78% retrace, the odds suggest that it is something else.
We've had greater than a 78% retrace of the move down that started at yesterday's highs. If you look at the eminis, you'll note that we went up today faster than we went down since yesterday. It looks impulsive, not corrective. $vix put in another bearish engulfing candle. I think this is more than just a temporary bounce. We're oversold. I think it could take some time to work this off.
Boy, am I tempted to cash in the next morning I turn on a computer to see a vast quantity of dollars but, come to think of it, that might be operant conditioning.
I don't think we saw a bottom today because of:
1. Impressive but not stunning volume. 2. Insufficient fear. What's with all this reflex buying? 3. CPCI not especially high, but with other put/call ratios is within striking distance of marking a bottom. 4. SPX is at the top of a channel; well, maybe peeking over a bit but so did the last major rally.
VIX has made a 50% correction from its top. I'll allow that the 5 day chart looks pretty grim, but it could be ready to roll tomorrow.
Top end for a rally is 1100, IMO, because 8 and 200 dmas converge there. Think it might spook the bulls if we had trouble getting back over the 200 dma? Also, it was a long climb up from 1041; the gap drop this morning took no energy at all.
I'm thinking tomorrow COULD look a lot like May 18th so I'm going to stick though a 1-2 day rally seems very likely. I've stuck since 116, so what the hey. Will re-evaluate at EOD tomorrow.
So what are your thought on tomorrow Dread? If the print in the picture plays out to the downside, then that could be a “B” wave down in an “ABC” move up to 1090 or 1100 spx.
Did you sign up or anyone you know
If you signed up for BAM Investors free trial, they have oil going down to 55 in June, and Gold going to 888… plus they have spx going down to 529, which is way too bearish for my thinking…
Did I just say that's too bearish? What's wrong with me? LOL
I'm waiting to see if Oil really does get to $65 a barrel, making USO 30.4…. any buy, under 32 is a winner..34 may take awhile.
If this was a wave 1 of 5, the wave 2 retrace should have stopped at 1065 (50%) or 1071 (61.8%). The /es has taken out the equivalent of nearly 1086, which is still larger than the next higher retracement level. Technically, yes, anything short of Friday's high would still make this a wave 2. But when there is greater than a 78% retrace, the odds suggest that it is something else.
Junk bonds did not set a new low today.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
Treasuries have put in a double-top, if not a triple-top!
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
I'm thinking the same thing Rip… still NO real panic. That doesn't sit well with a bottom being formed. (New Post, by the way…)
It could go up to 1090 spx Dread, and then head back down. But I don't think the selling is over yet. Still NO capitulation…
We've had greater than a 78% retrace of the move down that started at yesterday's highs. If you look at the eminis, you'll note that we went up today faster than we went down since yesterday. It looks impulsive, not corrective. $vix put in another bearish engulfing candle. I think this is more than just a temporary bounce. We're oversold. I think it could take some time to work this off.
Boy, am I tempted to cash in the next morning I turn on a computer to see a vast quantity of dollars but, come to think of it, that might be operant conditioning.
I don't think we saw a bottom today because of:
1. Impressive but not stunning volume.
2. Insufficient fear. What's with all this reflex buying?
3. CPCI not especially high, but with other put/call ratios is within striking distance of marking a bottom.
4. SPX is at the top of a channel; well, maybe peeking over a bit but so did the last major rally.
VIX has made a 50% correction from its top. I'll allow that the 5 day chart looks pretty grim, but it could be ready to roll tomorrow.
Top end for a rally is 1100, IMO, because 8 and 200 dmas converge there. Think it might spook the bulls if we had trouble getting back over the 200 dma? Also, it was a long climb up from 1041; the gap drop this morning took no energy at all.
I'm thinking tomorrow COULD look a lot like May 18th so I'm going to stick though a 1-2 day rally seems very likely. I've stuck since 116, so what the hey. Will re-evaluate at EOD tomorrow.