If we drop hard in the morning today, then we could do another intraday reversal like Feb. 5th was. We need a capitulation day to clean out all the bulls' stops from the last 6 months.
Then a rally can start that will start to squeeze the bears. That 875 level seems too far away to reach in one day, but that 980-990 level isn't out of reach. I have placed trade triggers to sell at 990, and buy at 985.
Time is also important, as the first few hours should produce the most selling, and then a possible huge rally in the afternoon, which could gives the green day Cobra talked about. Of course it would probably look like a doji, and only barely up, but that's what I think could happen.
Then they will have the weekend to calm things down, and stage a huge rally on Monday. We'll see how it plays out I guess.
Breakpoint trades says “look for the 9dma to act as resistance on any sharp rally. It acted as support on the way up (weeks ago) now its acting as resistance.”
I see you are in a reflective mood about your blog today, and I'd like to say that it certainly is a very good work. Those who have eyes can see. I've passed along warnings to some people who I thought would be hurt by the crash, and they have been grateful. Thanks, friend, for a job well done.
Take a look at Cobra's McClellan Oscillator chart, and you will see that it is very likely that after we reach the full extent of this decline, there will be a rally (might only be a day or three) and then a return to a deeper low, possibly at the 875 area? Here's the chart:
I am also mindful of the Ascending Broadening Wedge that Cobra points out on his main page, that has a target of 1008-1019, equivalent to the burgundy and white lines on Sundancer's chart. I believe we will have a bounce at that level, and a trading opportunity.
I will dump all May puts and possibly some June ones in that range and look for an intraday rally, but will hang onto majority of inventory til 900s.
I'm not too sure about the timetable. This is a very big move and is taking days to play out. Monday could be the reversal day, I think, but I'll be paying attention tomorrow!
Thanks Red…. you are running a great site here. I wish i read your post yesterday because I made some dumb moves today after I was having a few great days of trading. Can I ask where you get those targets?
Also on my ameritrade software I see fake prints intra-day all the time.. just smaller ones and I use them for trendlines. It works about 75% of the time. I'm trying to figure out how the machines are talking to each other 🙂
Anyways, the last time we had th eflash crash… I was luck enough to be in vxx…. I just dont know if I have the nerves to buy it when we are this over sold. But this is not a normal market… lastly, check out this video. His projections are similar to yours in the long run. Called a huge fall in May with a new high later in June or July! Maybe you will be right. http://www.youtube.com/user/hsdentfinancial#p/u…
Yes Rip,
If we drop hard in the morning today, then we could do another intraday reversal like Feb. 5th was. We need a capitulation day to clean out all the bulls' stops from the last 6 months.
Then a rally can start that will start to squeeze the bears. That 875 level seems too far away to reach in one day, but that 980-990 level isn't out of reach. I have placed trade triggers to sell at 990, and buy at 985.
Time is also important, as the first few hours should produce the most selling, and then a possible huge rally in the afternoon, which could gives the green day Cobra talked about. Of course it would probably look like a doji, and only barely up, but that's what I think could happen.
Then they will have the weekend to calm things down, and stage a huge rally on Monday. We'll see how it plays out I guess.
Breakpoint trades says “look for the 9dma to act as resistance on any sharp rally. It acted as support on the way up (weeks ago) now its acting as resistance.”
Cobra says (for today)
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX rose more 18%, as has discussed in 05/04 Market Recap, there’re more than 80% chances a green day tomorrow.
I agree completely that this will happen.
Harry Dent goes beyond Red. Dow down 8000 as opposed to Red's estimate of 5000. Good video BTW. Thx.
Red,
I see you are in a reflective mood about your blog today, and I'd like to say that it certainly is a very good work. Those who have eyes can see. I've passed along warnings to some people who I thought would be hurt by the crash, and they have been grateful. Thanks, friend, for a job well done.
Take a look at Cobra's McClellan Oscillator chart, and you will see that it is very likely that after we reach the full extent of this decline, there will be a rally (might only be a day or three) and then a return to a deeper low, possibly at the 875 area? Here's the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
I am also mindful of the Ascending Broadening Wedge that Cobra points out on his main page, that has a target of 1008-1019, equivalent to the burgundy and white lines on Sundancer's chart. I believe we will have a bounce at that level, and a trading opportunity.
I will dump all May puts and possibly some June ones in that range and look for an intraday rally, but will hang onto majority of inventory til 900s.
I'm not too sure about the timetable. This is a very big move and is taking days to play out. Monday could be the reversal day, I think, but I'll be paying attention tomorrow!
Mr. TopStep….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qSr7J2OM2k
Yes I agree…
We are ready to turn up hard on the market. It's way oversold now. I do expect it to happen tomorrow or Monday.
Thanks Red…. you are running a great site here. I wish i read your post yesterday because I made some dumb moves today after I was having a few great days of trading. Can I ask where you get those targets?
Also on my ameritrade software I see fake prints intra-day all the time.. just smaller ones and I use them for trendlines. It works about 75% of the time. I'm trying to figure out how the machines are talking to each other 🙂
Anyways, the last time we had th eflash crash… I was luck enough to be in vxx…. I just dont know if I have the nerves to buy it when we are this over sold. But this is not a normal market… lastly, check out this video. His projections are similar to yours in the long run. Called a huge fall in May with a new high later in June or July! Maybe you will be right. http://www.youtube.com/user/hsdentfinancial#p/u…
Thanks Red, will be watching and reading your blog. Best Regards!