So far this move up looks like a wave 4 of some kind to me. This implies one more wave 5 back down to dip a little lower then today’s current low of 1608 spx to complete this down move. Then I’d expect a rally tomorrow and into early next week. I’m NOT expecting some new high as the trend is still down, but I am expecting a decent rally to happen.
Then I’d expect the next move down to be some type of wave 3 that breaks the prior low of 1598 spx and heads toward the 1536 low from back in April. Then we can rally again for awhile and get the market setup for the August drop to 1440 spx area.
Looks like we could open up some from the looks of the futures. Pretty much all the short term time frames on the ES is now wanting to turn up. But the SPX is lagging behind and probably won’t turn up and follow until Friday. So today could be chop as the market fights to find a bottom.
However, being that we are so close to retesting the 1596.50 ES low and the fact that we actually hit 1597.50 ES overnight I’d tend to think that we’ll go down at some point today or tomorrow and hit the overnight low again. We should actually go below that low to make a new low and hit the 1575 ES area but that might not happen today (or tomorrow, but Friday would be a good time to do it and then rally).
Remember that the low for the market is usually put in on the Thursday or Friday the week before option expiration (the monthly opx), which is today and tomorrow. So if they close positive today then I’d look for that move down tomorrow morning to complete this whole move down.
Looking at the futures now and the other markets around the world it’s not looking too good for the bulls tomorrow. I’d say we are going to break the previous low of 1598 spx tomorrow morning for sure. Again, I’m not expecting 1536 to be hit but anything is possible I guess? Regardless, the odds are that we’ll put in a low tomorrow and rally on Friday and early next week.
But again… don’t expect next week to close bullish just because 80% of option expiration week are positive. After a few days of a rally I expect the selloff to continue until the 1536 spx prior low is tested. At that point I’d become a bull and go long for awhile. Until then I’m a bear and would only go long for a day or two.
If we all get lucky then we’ll tank hard tomorrow and hit that 1536 area, but I’m not expecting that to happen. My target would be about 1575 spx (give or take a few points either way). This looks to me like some kind of wave 3 but we all know that EW is best figured out after it’s over with.
Most of the indices have now dropped down to the confluence of their 50 day averages and lower BBs. The proximity of the lower BBs helped to contain the decline but now they have been reached and once again they are flaring away as the indices reach them. XLF had the most daunting setup since its BBs were actually still contracting and the 20 day average was still rising but it is now joining the other indices in a similar setup.
Next step is for the 50 day average to be jumped when the decline should really get going.
Tomorrow is 6-13 or 6-13-13 or 6-26 or 64. It will be 1134 days (117?) or 162 weeks from the flash crash although I liked todays 1133 and 161weeks6days better. Also 296 weeks (116) from the 10-11-07 high or 2072 days later (29 both ways as well as 27=999)…162 also===72
Another day like today will have the component of a certain little indicator challenging its alltime negative reading but if this is the middle spike of the complex bottom pattern it should challenge it and make the first spike look puny in comparison.
A certain little indicator has now entered no mans land where nasty things can happen. Its component has now nearly reached the low levels from last week.
And price has barely budged. But that will be rectified quite dramatically.
I don’t think at this point we are headed to 1536 this week as I expect some short term low to be put in tomorrow or Friday. This is because it’s option expiration week starting next Monday and they tend to be bullish. So if we can gap down tomorrow morning on the initial claims data and put in an exhaustion flush out move, then I’d say the low is in for this week.
Then Friday we’d see some type of rally start that should go up all next week to work off the short term oversold conditions. After that I’ll be expecting the move down to 1536 to start, but I have no idea how much of a rally we will get. Don’t expect it to be bullish all week this time around as the week charts is looking too bearish for the market to close up big next week.
Ok gang, based on the futures being up 10 points right now it’s looking like they are continuing to grind out toward the end of this triangle pattern. If they don’t breakout to the upside and stay on the downward sloping resistance trendline then today will be in a tight range all day as they bounce up and down from the lower support line to the top trendline.
This lack of a breakout should lead to a breakdown later today or Thursday morning. All I see is the short term charts working off their oversold conditions while the price level goes basically nowhere. Just chop up and down in a range but no real big move up like last Thursday and Friday. This is bearish in my opinion and I’m still not expecting another move higher from this inverted head and shoulders. I think Monday was the high for this week. However, if that 1646 level is cleared then I’m open to the thoughts that we’re going to test 1674 again.
SPY Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/spy-bullish-engulfing.html
So far this move up looks like a wave 4 of some kind to me. This implies one more wave 5 back down to dip a little lower then today’s current low of 1608 spx to complete this down move. Then I’d expect a rally tomorrow and into early next week. I’m NOT expecting some new high as the trend is still down, but I am expecting a decent rally to happen.
Then I’d expect the next move down to be some type of wave 3 that breaks the prior low of 1598 spx and heads toward the 1536 low from back in April. Then we can rally again for awhile and get the market setup for the August drop to 1440 spx area.
Looks like we could open up some from the looks of the futures. Pretty much all the short term time frames on the ES is now wanting to turn up. But the SPX is lagging behind and probably won’t turn up and follow until Friday. So today could be chop as the market fights to find a bottom.
However, being that we are so close to retesting the 1596.50 ES low and the fact that we actually hit 1597.50 ES overnight I’d tend to think that we’ll go down at some point today or tomorrow and hit the overnight low again. We should actually go below that low to make a new low and hit the 1575 ES area but that might not happen today (or tomorrow, but Friday would be a good time to do it and then rally).
Remember that the low for the market is usually put in on the Thursday or Friday the week before option expiration (the monthly opx), which is today and tomorrow. So if they close positive today then I’d look for that move down tomorrow morning to complete this whole move down.
1536 would be too perfect.
but yeah, soggy till end of Month.
http://s4.postimg.org/4ky2lxbj1/temp1.png
Looking at the futures now and the other markets around the world it’s not looking too good for the bulls tomorrow. I’d say we are going to break the previous low of 1598 spx tomorrow morning for sure. Again, I’m not expecting 1536 to be hit but anything is possible I guess? Regardless, the odds are that we’ll put in a low tomorrow and rally on Friday and early next week.
But again… don’t expect next week to close bullish just because 80% of option expiration week are positive. After a few days of a rally I expect the selloff to continue until the 1536 spx prior low is tested. At that point I’d become a bull and go long for awhile. Until then I’m a bear and would only go long for a day or two.
If we all get lucky then we’ll tank hard tomorrow and hit that 1536 area, but I’m not expecting that to happen. My target would be about 1575 spx (give or take a few points either way). This looks to me like some kind of wave 3 but we all know that EW is best figured out after it’s over with.
ES update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/es-chart-update_13.html
Most of the indices have now dropped down to the confluence of their 50 day averages and lower BBs. The proximity of the lower BBs helped to contain the decline but now they have been reached and once again they are flaring away as the indices reach them. XLF had the most daunting setup since its BBs were actually still contracting and the 20 day average was still rising but it is now joining the other indices in a similar setup.
Next step is for the 50 day average to be jumped when the decline should really get going.
Tomorrow is 6-13 or 6-13-13 or 6-26 or 64. It will be 1134 days (117?) or 162 weeks from the flash crash although I liked todays 1133 and 161weeks6days better. Also 296 weeks (116) from the 10-11-07 high or 2072 days later (29 both ways as well as 27=999)…162 also===72
Another day like today will have the component of a certain little indicator challenging its alltime negative reading but if this is the middle spike of the complex bottom pattern it should challenge it and make the first spike look puny in comparison.
A certain little indicator has now entered no mans land where nasty things can happen. Its component has now nearly reached the low levels from last week.
And price has barely budged. But that will be rectified quite dramatically.
I don’t think at this point we are headed to 1536 this week as I expect some short term low to be put in tomorrow or Friday. This is because it’s option expiration week starting next Monday and they tend to be bullish. So if we can gap down tomorrow morning on the initial claims data and put in an exhaustion flush out move, then I’d say the low is in for this week.
Then Friday we’d see some type of rally start that should go up all next week to work off the short term oversold conditions. After that I’ll be expecting the move down to 1536 to start, but I have no idea how much of a rally we will get. Don’t expect it to be bullish all week this time around as the week charts is looking too bearish for the market to close up big next week.
Ok gang, based on the futures being up 10 points right now it’s looking like they are continuing to grind out toward the end of this triangle pattern. If they don’t breakout to the upside and stay on the downward sloping resistance trendline then today will be in a tight range all day as they bounce up and down from the lower support line to the top trendline.
This lack of a breakout should lead to a breakdown later today or Thursday morning. All I see is the short term charts working off their oversold conditions while the price level goes basically nowhere. Just chop up and down in a range but no real big move up like last Thursday and Friday. This is bearish in my opinion and I’m still not expecting another move higher from this inverted head and shoulders. I think Monday was the high for this week. However, if that 1646 level is cleared then I’m open to the thoughts that we’re going to test 1674 again.