I'm surprised that Carl doesn't have the gap fill area (1110-1120) from this Monday, as a possible low. Should this 1150 area break, I could easily see the market fall down and fill that gap.
Rarely does the market go inside a gap area, and not fill it. That 1139 is half way in the middle of the gap. Of course, it could stop there today and fill it on Monday… who knows? Just deal me another card… come on Ace, I need a BlackJack! LOL
She seems to be saying that she now thinks a turn will take place at 1149 rather than 1107, will rally to 1180 instead of 1168, and will be at 1150 for OEX. Presumably it would go lower later. Yes, I suppose it could play out this way, a more extended time frame. That 1180 level is still in the operators' hip pocket.
We've got all these data points that can be mixed and matched. I suspect a plunge today after a failed rally to 1170. Those with May options might want to get rid of half at EOD if that happens. Or, we may have a gap open, a rally to1180, and end the day with a black star or hollow red candle and plunge Monday. In that case, I would go for the gusto on the plunge because the rally option would have been played.
I woke up in a sweat this morning that WE are the bagholders and that this will turn into a bull market. Trying to shake that off. One indicator I follow (subscription to wallstreetcourier.com) shows that afternoon (big) money has not participated in this rally.
Looking good the bear this morning… so far? Let's see if 115.00 can hold, or will she breakdown through support and fall to close the gap around 111.00?
The technical's tell me the market is going down to probably retest the lows from last Thursday and maybe put in a new low?
As too the Germany story… who knows? Lot's of rumors are started, and this could simple be another one. But, “IF” we tank the market again… they have too blame it on someone, it might as well be the Germans. LOL
Red, I agree with you that the market is headed down, but I think the German currency story isn't real:
“Zero Hedge has added fuel to the fire by posting this from guest contributor The Prudent Investor on Wednesday:
'A web page of precious metals prices provider Kitco.com has sparked rumors that Germany will leave the Eurozone and reintroduce German Marks, sending gold to a new record of $1,244 and silver to a multi-year high of $19.64. It is this half-ready page shown below that has created excitement as it lists precious metals in Deutschmark units.'
People, we hate to break it to you. But we have it confirmed.
This is an old ghost page of Kitco’s from before the launch of the euro. Still live on the web, but no longer updated.
There is nothing to see here. You can go about your business as normal. If Germany does have a plan B, it’s very unlikely to involve a relaunch of the Deutsche Mark this weekend.”
Of course, a rally without a double bottom (happens sometimes), everyone jumps on board late.
I'm favoring a fake double bottom followed by another plunge, after a good-sized rally. Who knows? Best to stay flexible.
Filling gaps doesn't sound like Carl. He speaks of boxes, and target areas mostly.
I'm surprised that Carl doesn't have the gap fill area (1110-1120) from this Monday, as a possible low. Should this 1150 area break, I could easily see the market fall down and fill that gap.
Rarely does the market go inside a gap area, and not fill it. That 1139 is half way in the middle of the gap. Of course, it could stop there today and fill it on Monday… who knows? Just deal me another card… come on Ace, I need a BlackJack! LOL
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1139-55.
1144.25-1159.50 range last night (15.25 points)
1139-1155 estimate for today (16 points)
1148 currently, so estimate is -9 to +7 from here (neutral)
I'd say big money is waiting for the low from last Thursday to be tested again, before they dive in.
She seems to be saying that she now thinks a turn will take place at 1149 rather than 1107, will rally to 1180 instead of 1168, and will be at 1150 for OEX. Presumably it would go lower later. Yes, I suppose it could play out this way, a more extended time frame. That 1180 level is still in the operators' hip pocket.
We've got all these data points that can be mixed and matched. I suspect a plunge today after a failed rally to 1170. Those with May options might want to get rid of half at EOD if that happens. Or, we may have a gap open, a rally to1180, and end the day with a black star or hollow red candle and plunge Monday. In that case, I would go for the gusto on the plunge because the rally option would have been played.
I woke up in a sweat this morning that WE are the bagholders and that this will turn into a bull market. Trying to shake that off. One indicator I follow (subscription to wallstreetcourier.com) shows that afternoon (big) money has not participated in this rally.
Looking good the bear this morning… so far? Let's see if 115.00 can hold, or will she breakdown through support and fall to close the gap around 111.00?
Thanks for the update Dollar…
The technical's tell me the market is going down to probably retest the lows from last Thursday and maybe put in a new low?
As too the Germany story… who knows? Lot's of rumors are started, and this could simple be another one. But, “IF” we tank the market again… they have too blame it on someone, it might as well be the Germans. LOL
I'm not really that good with EW counts, but this count looks pretty likely too me…
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
Red, I agree with you that the market is headed down, but I think the German currency story isn't real:
“Zero Hedge has added fuel to the fire by posting this from guest contributor The Prudent Investor on Wednesday:
'A web page of precious metals prices provider Kitco.com has sparked rumors that Germany will leave the Eurozone and reintroduce German Marks, sending gold to a new record of $1,244 and silver to a multi-year high of $19.64. It is this half-ready page shown below that has created excitement as it lists precious metals in Deutschmark units.'
People, we hate to break it to you. But we have it confirmed.
This is an old ghost page of Kitco’s from before the launch of the euro. Still live on the web, but no longer updated.
There is nothing to see here. You can go about your business as normal. If Germany does have a plan B, it’s very unlikely to involve a relaunch of the Deutsche Mark this weekend.”
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/13/2306…