Daily charts are only day’2 UP. There is plenty of upside viable next week
I do agree, significant downside is coming – certainly stronger than this moderate 1687/1598 wave, but it will probably be from much higher levels, perhaps the sp’1730/40 area by late July..and then down to 1550 Aug/Sept.
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anyway, have a good weekend!
Officially the bull flag has been fulfilled. However, this move up into the close doesn’t meet the typical move up from a cup and handle pattern. So, it seems likely that they will go higher on Monday just looking at the patterns… so why does my gut tell me this is about all the upside we are going to get? Anyway, at this point I’m expecting at least a small pop up on Monday, if not a rally to 1660 spx, but I’m not playing this long trade as I just don’t trust it.
This bull flag in the making should play out Monday morning or into the close, but a failure to play out would be very bearish. Most bull flags do play out (I’d guess that 90% play out) but how high they go can be only 1 point or 20 points… there’s no set upside for a bull flag.
Meaning that we could fulfill the bull flag at any point today with a simple 1-2 point pop before the close. Then Monday will be anyone’s guess. Now the other pattern we see here is a “cup and handle” with the possible future pattern of an “inverted head and shoulders”.
The C&H could produce a rally to that 1660 zone, or we could drop back into the channel to form the right shoulder of the In-H&S pattern. My thoughts are that “if” they fall back into the channel today they won’t stop in the 1615-1625 zone to make the bottom of that right shoulder but will instead continue down to take out 1600 support level.
My thoughts are that we’ll fall back into the channel to make everyone guess about Monday over the weekend. Then simply open down a little on Monday and slowly continue down so as to not panic the bulls out or get the bears excited. But by next Thursday/Friday I think we’ll see the real low from this whole move down at 1687.
Today’s action pushes things back into next week when there are some other better dates and anniversaries and past the French Open Final. Not to say that tomorrow can’t be a big down day but I guess the big meaning of 67 will have to reveal itself later (as in June July ???).
Today was about the Dow and Sp testing its 50 day average and then retaking its lower BB (most of the other indices as well). It is also matching up pattern wise with the recent action of the $xu100 (Turkish market) although its equivalent day to today featured a smaller upbar.
The big positive breadth reversal is a little worrisome. When it reverses like this off such an oversold level, it usually leads to a strong rally. But so far every reversal has been immediately met by a counter-reversal although recent moves did not feature today’s strong breadth. I don’t really sense a strong bearish participation in this market.
A certain little indicator plowed through its April lows today (at a steep rate of descent) and rarely features double bottoms.
It was also interesting to see copper and industrial metals sell off today despite the rally after putting in recent recovery highs. Euro had a big bounce going into currency opex tomorrow. (following the ECB meeting)
hey red, I think you’re over-thinking it a bit.
Daily charts are only day’2 UP. There is plenty of upside viable next week
I do agree, significant downside is coming – certainly stronger than this moderate 1687/1598 wave, but it will probably be from much higher levels, perhaps the sp’1730/40 area by late July..and then down to 1550 Aug/Sept.
—
anyway, have a good weekend!
Officially the bull flag has been fulfilled. However, this move up into the close doesn’t meet the typical move up from a cup and handle pattern. So, it seems likely that they will go higher on Monday just looking at the patterns… so why does my gut tell me this is about all the upside we are going to get? Anyway, at this point I’m expecting at least a small pop up on Monday, if not a rally to 1660 spx, but I’m not playing this long trade as I just don’t trust it.
FACEBOOK Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/facebook-trend-update.html
This bull flag in the making should play out Monday morning or into the close, but a failure to play out would be very bearish. Most bull flags do play out (I’d guess that 90% play out) but how high they go can be only 1 point or 20 points… there’s no set upside for a bull flag.
Meaning that we could fulfill the bull flag at any point today with a simple 1-2 point pop before the close. Then Monday will be anyone’s guess. Now the other pattern we see here is a “cup and handle” with the possible future pattern of an “inverted head and shoulders”.
The C&H could produce a rally to that 1660 zone, or we could drop back into the channel to form the right shoulder of the In-H&S pattern. My thoughts are that “if” they fall back into the channel today they won’t stop in the 1615-1625 zone to make the bottom of that right shoulder but will instead continue down to take out 1600 support level.
My thoughts are that we’ll fall back into the channel to make everyone guess about Monday over the weekend. Then simply open down a little on Monday and slowly continue down so as to not panic the bulls out or get the bears excited. But by next Thursday/Friday I think we’ll see the real low from this whole move down at 1687.
Here’s the SPX forecast… http://screencast.com/t/1c5R1Zjr
Next week I expect this… http://screencast.com/t/2W5FSFq2
SPY Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/06/spy-chart-update_7.html
Time to get short again I believe. Rally time is over I guess…
do not be surprised if the market continue to grind higher non stop. If tomorrow earases todays gain then yes I will turn bearish … we shall see.
Today’s action pushes things back into next week when there are some other better dates and anniversaries and past the French Open Final. Not to say that tomorrow can’t be a big down day but I guess the big meaning of 67 will have to reveal itself later (as in June July ???).
Today was about the Dow and Sp testing its 50 day average and then retaking its lower BB (most of the other indices as well). It is also matching up pattern wise with the recent action of the $xu100 (Turkish market) although its equivalent day to today featured a smaller upbar.
The big positive breadth reversal is a little worrisome. When it reverses like this off such an oversold level, it usually leads to a strong rally. But so far every reversal has been immediately met by a counter-reversal although recent moves did not feature today’s strong breadth. I don’t really sense a strong bearish participation in this market.
A certain little indicator plowed through its April lows today (at a steep rate of descent) and rarely features double bottoms.
It was also interesting to see copper and industrial metals sell off today despite the rally after putting in recent recovery highs. Euro had a big bounce going into currency opex tomorrow. (following the ECB meeting)