The last 30 minutes yesterday saved the SPY from the edge of the Huge Ledge. Closed above the twin containment pts. Should these twin containment pts. fail, then another quick 40 pt. flush will ensue.
Notice very closely the relationship of the blue TL. It's the TL that SPY gapped below on the day of the LEH-Man Ritual. Bad news for the Bulls is the bears successfully backtested it yesterday co-relational to the successful backtest on 4.8.2010.
No dead cat bounce on Wed. So here is my 2nd cry for wolves.
Today observed negative development in the market for the bear case. Money is flowing back into the long ETFs and flowing out of the short ETFS. I would be dissappointed, but not surprised, that we bottom right around here and turn around to OP Ex top. IF we have a 90% upside day, that would seal the deal for upside. In thoery, given that the momentum break and trend change that have transpired, are decisive, it means more downside should be expected. But the market will do what it wants, including interrupting a decline with a double top.
Ideally, we would have a few days of rally, and the rally fails, but the breadth improves at that leg down. Thus forming a double bottom at the breadth indicators and the market then resumes an upward race to OpEx peak.
Afterall, we can't really expect the market makers to really pay out all those puts, do we? SPY at 120 OpEx would be sweet dreams for the market makers.
I don't know if the USSR was planned or not? Was Goldman short then? Probably not… Goldman knows that the news will bring the market down, and they plan to short it so they can profit from it.
The key thing to focus on in the article is how many people will profit from the default. Therefore, they will make it happen. As for the USSR, I doubt if Goldman could figure out a way too profit from a county that didn't have very much free enterprise, because of Communism.
Clearly, if Goldman is betting that the PIIGS countries will fall, which means they will profit from them falling… that means this fake print of DOW 10,000 is soon to be a reality…
We all know by now that Goldman Sachs isn't in the business of losing bets. They make things happen, so they can profit from them. They've staged every bubble since at least 1929… staging a countries' demise is nothing new to them.
Again, we are going to have some bounces along the way, but I'm not going long until the target is hit…
TNA was a Wait for today, was down today, and has a Wait signal again for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible Sell for today, was up today, and is a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.03, up 13.7% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to: SLV(silver), QQQQ
The list to avoid: IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT) , IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), AMZN, DRI, GOOG, EWG(Germany), EWQ(France), EWU(England), EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible buys tomorrow: DRN(3x RE), USO(oil), ERX(3x energy), GS, DIA, SPY
The following are possible sells tomorrow: GLD (gold), UCO(2x Oil), AAPL
That one was when I learned my lesson… after losing a bunch of money. I caught the fake print back in January. It was my first experience seeing one, so I forgot all about it in February.
When the market hit around 1060-1070 during the February sell off, I took a large short position, only to see the market hit 1044.50, before the computer bot's kicked into high gear and nearly wiped me out.
I still haven't recovered fully from that mistake, as I'm more cautious now. And, I pay a lot more attention to those prints. Here's the original screen shot from January…
It's states 1047.28, and was only up for about 10 minutes before they corrected it to show the real number of about 1150 or so. Well this time we have a fake print of Dow 10k, which will be about 1055 spx that Sundancer mentioned.
So, I'm not getting seriously long until we hit that target. I might swing in and out short term, but no longer term swings until that target is hit.
You have too realize by now that this market is 100% control, as TA's don't always work. Sometimes they work well, for weeks at a time, and then just when you think you've got a big moved figured out… BAM, it goes against all TA's and takes your money.
So, to answer your question… I think they are extremely accurate, but I never know when they will start… only that they will eventually play out. It's now started, so the play out time is within a few weeks, I'd expect.
How reliable are these fake prints ? I remeber seeing one in dec for 1055 when market was 1125 and a few weeks later from 1151 we went to that print and below it, but generally is it that reliable to think it is LIKELY to get hit?
TZA opened up 2.4%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 6.8% at the high, and closed up 4.3%.
A gap up yesterday from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA. AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA fell, so TNA will be a Wait for tomorrow. AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA will return to a Hold. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.30, so this trade is now up 13.7%.
Volume for TZA today was highest since December 4th — about 2 times the average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 0.09% with TZA up 4.3%. I’m calling that a divergence.
TZA has been up, then down, then up, then down, then up two days now. Chop, but drifting up. Good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from seven days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.04, 13.9% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 55.9 to 55.09 – a small drop that mismatches the 4.3% gain in TZA. A reading over 50 is good for TZA, but this is a divergence. Good for TZA (with reservations from the divergence)
MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily, and up more today. Good for TZA.
Definition of terms: White candle closes above the open Red candle closes below the open Black candle closes below the open, but above the prior close
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Black candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 1st day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Good for TZA for the time being. On the other hand, a similar black candle on April 19th was followed by $RUT rising for 4 days, which would be Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s red candle touched and bounced off the lower Bollinger band. This could be the beginning of a bounce in $RUT, Bad for TZA. MACD has rolled over (down) and falling. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The red candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 6 days ago and was followed by two up days. This also happened 4 days ago and was followed by one up day. And again yesterday, followed by one down day. Seems to happen a lot lately, but it’s really supposed to be quite rare. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, for a day or two.
Down volume on the NYSE yesterday was 15 times the up volume. In the recent past this has been followed by an up day either the next day or the day after that. Didn’t happen today, so should happen tomorrow. Down volume on the NYSE today was 4 times the up volume.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – Good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 1,375 million flowing into the market 2 days ago. $ 1,736 million flowing out of the market yesterday. $ 1,649 million flowing out of the market today. Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Current Daily SPY setup:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45833…
The last 30 minutes yesterday saved the SPY from the edge of the Huge Ledge. Closed above the twin containment pts. Should these twin containment pts. fail, then another quick 40 pt. flush will ensue.
Notice very closely the relationship of the blue TL. It's the TL that SPY gapped below on the day of the LEH-Man Ritual. Bad news for the Bulls is the bears successfully backtested it yesterday co-relational to the successful backtest on 4.8.2010.
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Your article is always useful.
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No dead cat bounce on Wed. So here is my 2nd cry for wolves.
Today observed negative development in the market for the bear case. Money is flowing back into the long ETFs and flowing out of the short ETFS. I would be dissappointed, but not surprised, that we bottom right around here and turn around to OP Ex top. IF we have a 90% upside day, that would seal the deal for upside. In thoery, given that the momentum break and trend change that have transpired, are decisive, it means more downside should be expected. But the market will do what it wants, including interrupting a decline with a double top.
Ideally, we would have a few days of rally, and the rally fails, but the breadth improves at that leg down. Thus forming a double bottom at the breadth indicators and the market then resumes an upward race to OpEx peak.
Afterall, we can't really expect the market makers to really pay out all those puts, do we? SPY at 120 OpEx would be sweet dreams for the market makers.
I don't know if the USSR was planned or not? Was Goldman short then? Probably not… Goldman knows that the news will bring the market down, and they plan to short it so they can profit from it.
The key thing to focus on in the article is how many people will profit from the default. Therefore, they will make it happen. As for the USSR, I doubt if Goldman could figure out a way too profit from a county that didn't have very much free enterprise, because of Communism.
1991 was when the USSR went bankrupt.
check the chart… no market effect.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f…
Greece is more significant??
ZeroHedge article worth reading…
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cds-traders-ve…
Clearly, if Goldman is betting that the PIIGS countries will fall, which means they will profit from them falling… that means this fake print of DOW 10,000 is soon to be a reality…
We all know by now that Goldman Sachs isn't in the business of losing bets. They make things happen, so they can profit from them. They've staged every bubble since at least 1929… staging a countries' demise is nothing new to them.
Again, we are going to have some bounces along the way, but I'm not going long until the target is hit…
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a Wait for today, was down today, and has a Wait signal again for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible Sell for today, was up today, and is a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.03, up 13.7% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
SLV(silver), QQQQ
The list to avoid:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT) , IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), AMZN, DRI, GOOG, EWG(Germany), EWQ(France), EWU(England), EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible buys tomorrow:
DRN(3x RE), USO(oil), ERX(3x energy), GS, DIA, SPY
The following are possible sells tomorrow:
GLD (gold), UCO(2x Oil), AAPL
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: None
That one was when I learned my lesson… after losing a bunch of money. I caught the fake print back in January. It was my first experience seeing one, so I forgot all about it in February.
When the market hit around 1060-1070 during the February sell off, I took a large short position, only to see the market hit 1044.50, before the computer bot's kicked into high gear and nearly wiped me out.
I still haven't recovered fully from that mistake, as I'm more cautious now. And, I pay a lot more attention to those prints. Here's the original screen shot from January…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
It's states 1047.28, and was only up for about 10 minutes before they corrected it to show the real number of about 1150 or so. Well this time we have a fake print of Dow 10k, which will be about 1055 spx that Sundancer mentioned.
So, I'm not getting seriously long until we hit that target. I might swing in and out short term, but no longer term swings until that target is hit.
You have too realize by now that this market is 100% control, as TA's don't always work. Sometimes they work well, for weeks at a time, and then just when you think you've got a big moved figured out… BAM, it goes against all TA's and takes your money.
So, to answer your question… I think they are extremely accurate, but I never know when they will start… only that they will eventually play out. It's now started, so the play out time is within a few weeks, I'd expect.
Hope that helps answer your question…
Red
RedDragonleo
How reliable are these fake prints ? I remeber seeing one in dec for 1055 when market was 1125 and a few weeks later from 1151 we went to that print and below it, but generally is it that reliable to think it is LIKELY to get hit?
TZA opened up 2.4%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 6.8% at the high, and closed up 4.3%.
A gap up yesterday from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA fell, so TNA will be a Wait for tomorrow.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA will return to a Hold. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.30, so this trade is now up 13.7%.
Volume for TZA today was highest since December 4th — about 2 times the average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 0.09% with TZA up 4.3%. I’m calling that a divergence.
TZA has been up, then down, then up, then down, then up two days now. Chop, but drifting up. Good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from seven days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.04, 13.9% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 55.9 to 55.09 – a small drop that mismatches the 4.3% gain in TZA. A reading over 50 is good for TZA, but this is a divergence. Good for TZA (with reservations from the divergence)
MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily, and up more today. Good for TZA.
Definition of terms:
White candle closes above the open
Red candle closes below the open
Black candle closes below the open, but above the prior close
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Black candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 1st day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Good for TZA for the time being.
On the other hand, a similar black candle on April 19th was followed by $RUT rising for 4 days, which would be Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s red candle touched and bounced off the lower Bollinger band. This could be the beginning of a bounce in $RUT, Bad for TZA. MACD has rolled over (down) and falling. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The red candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 6 days ago and was followed by two up days. This also happened 4 days ago and was followed by one up day. And again yesterday, followed by one down day. Seems to happen a lot lately, but it’s really supposed to be quite rare. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, for a day or two.
Down volume on the NYSE yesterday was 15 times the up volume. In the recent past this has been followed by an up day either the next day or the day after that. Didn’t happen today, so should happen tomorrow. Down volume on the NYSE today was 4 times the up volume.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – Good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 1,375 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 1,736 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 1,649 million flowing out of the market today.
Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TZA for tomorrow.