Weekly setups: the $DJI is in the top 1 percentile for a weekly close below it's open of 11,205.11
*IF* no higher highs this week, then the $SPX is in the top 15 percentile for a weekly close near it's lows.
Last week $VIX had it's 2nd consecutive weekly close above it's TL that had been suffocating it since 12/08'. Higher highs are coming on the $VIX (above 19.70) http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45570…
Did anybody else notice yesterday closing $SPX number of 1,212? Why are the operators drawing your attention to the boiling pt. of 212? Pi : Sun Ritual (666/Pi = 212)
In the next 21.2 months the capital markets will reach their boiling pt. co-relational to the macro reaching it's boiling pt. during 2012.
You haven't been any more wrong in your forecast then I have… so welcome to the club!
As for December, that would certainly allow Obama to try and help out his fellow Democrats with the elections in November. So, it's entirely possible that we could just churn higher, and sideways until then.
However, I think it will turn down in late September, early October. Nothing too serious, but a wave one down, and a smaller wave two back up just before the elections. Then the shit storm hits the fan after that.
For tomorrow… who knows? Heads they win, tails I lose!
After reviewing additional data, the revised estimated market top is early Dec 2010. The correction projected to occur in the Summer, is unlikely to be THE top. The top will most likely come in Dec 2010. And the aftermath will be a trail of tears and broken dreams for years to come.
The current market condition is similar to that in the eve of 1929, 1973, 1987, 2007. THat kind of makes things sucky. Because the market price momentum, the breadth momentum, the volume momentum etc are all supporting a historical pattern of no decline exceeding 10%, yet the extreme over valuation, extreme bullish sentiment, extreme overbought condition, with rising yield pressure, and the mother of all macro economy mismanagement, we have on our hand a perfect shit storm.
This perfect storm is too treacherous to chart a course and set it on auto pilot. That means no long term bets. We need to navigate this on short term basis and hope that we survive this.
All short term trend indicators are positive. But we are very extended. So a pullback is in the card. My VST tools should pick up the trend change. I have my May 119-108 put spreads as lottery play and a hedge for the longs I have in some biomedical stocks that I have fallen in love with. Barring unforseen external events such as the Middle East war, or Red's stargate at the sea bottom, south of Yemen opens up (LOL), I plan to load up on super high growth stocks after the overbought conditions reset (via a pullback in the market) and have one last rocket ride to the moon before packing it in before Xmas.
Cavaet: Everything subjected to revision upon new development, or the effect of Cognac wears off…whichever comes first.
P.S. My recent forecast has been wrong and the reasons sorted out and correction made. I shall try not to make the same mistake twice. The ghost in this business is the tendency to overrule your own work in favour of those from people you hold in high esteem. To be successful, we need to exsocise our ghost.
Hmmm? A RED pre-market… I think I've seen a albino tiger.
i have 1 family member that was born on 4.28 & one good friend that was born on 4.29
What's your due date?
Interesting comments this morning. Thanks guys! Still kicking.
Weekly setups:
the $DJI is in the top 1 percentile for a weekly close below it's open of 11,205.11
*IF* no higher highs this week, then the $SPX is in the top 15 percentile for a weekly close near it's lows.
Last week $VIX had it's 2nd consecutive weekly close above it's TL that had been suffocating it since 12/08'. Higher highs are coming on the $VIX (above 19.70)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45570…
Did anybody else notice yesterday closing $SPX number of 1,212?
Why are the operators drawing your attention to the boiling pt. of 212?
Pi : Sun Ritual (666/Pi = 212)
In the next 21.2 months the capital markets will reach their boiling pt. co-relational to the macro reaching it's boiling pt. during 2012.
I really don't have a time bias for the top, however numbers will often point you in the correct direction.
$SPX is currently up 82.94% in 14 months
During the 02-07' mkt, it took the $SPX 50 months to go up 82.94%.
That's a serious compression in time, if we continue to follow the same compression the top will be in the first part of July.
Hi. I am forex-cat.
Your article is always useful.
Thanks.
…my blog:
http://forex-chart-analysis-and-a-cat.blogspot.com/
….tomorrow the market will go down. if the market goes up instead, then it will go down sometime in the future…..
Edit for typo: The put spread is May 119/118, not 119/108.
LOL…
You haven't been any more wrong in your forecast then I have… so welcome to the club!
As for December, that would certainly allow Obama to try and help out his fellow Democrats with the elections in November. So, it's entirely possible that we could just churn higher, and sideways until then.
However, I think it will turn down in late September, early October. Nothing too serious, but a wave one down, and a smaller wave two back up just before the elections. Then the shit storm hits the fan after that.
For tomorrow… who knows? Heads they win, tails I lose!
After reviewing additional data, the revised estimated market top is early Dec 2010. The correction projected to occur in the Summer, is unlikely to be THE top. The top will most likely come in Dec 2010. And the aftermath will be a trail of tears and broken dreams for years to come.
The current market condition is similar to that in the eve of 1929, 1973, 1987, 2007. THat kind of makes things sucky. Because the market price momentum, the breadth momentum, the volume momentum etc are all supporting a historical pattern of no decline exceeding 10%, yet the extreme over valuation, extreme bullish sentiment, extreme overbought condition, with rising yield pressure, and the mother of all macro economy mismanagement, we have on our hand a perfect shit storm.
This perfect storm is too treacherous to chart a course and set it on auto pilot. That means no long term bets. We need to navigate this on short term basis and hope that we survive this.
All short term trend indicators are positive. But we are very extended. So a pullback is in the card. My VST tools should pick up the trend change. I have my May 119-108 put spreads as lottery play and a hedge for the longs I have in some biomedical stocks that I have fallen in love with. Barring unforseen external events such as the Middle East war, or Red's stargate at the sea bottom, south of Yemen opens up (LOL), I plan to load up on super high growth stocks after the overbought conditions reset (via a pullback in the market) and have one last rocket ride to the moon before packing it in before Xmas.
Cavaet: Everything subjected to revision upon new development, or the effect of Cognac wears off…whichever comes first.
P.S. My recent forecast has been wrong and the reasons sorted out and correction made. I shall try not to make the same mistake twice. The ghost in this business is the tendency to overrule your own work in favour of those from people you hold in high esteem. To be successful, we need to exsocise our ghost.