TNA had a Hold signal today, was down today, and has a highly reliable SELL-IF signal for tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $69.90, up 23.7% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern.
TZA had a Wait (for a signal) today, was up today, and has a low reliability BUY-IF signal for tomorrow. The TZA sell price was $6.51. TZA closed today at $5.48, down 15.8% since the sell. The candlestick for today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a low reliability Bullish Harami Pattern.
Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning: Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14 Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05 Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring: Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43 Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63 Buy at $56.50, up 23.7%
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive): +3 Hold: GLD(gold, up 0.83%), UCO (2x oil, down 1.0%), EWU(England, down 1.4%)
TNA opened flat (down a penny). TNA was up 2.0% at the high, and closed down 1.3%.
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA, but we are now trading TNA, as it is going up, and TZA is not. AmericanBulls had TNA with a Hold signal for today. The TNA buy was at $69.05, and TNA closed at $69.89, up 0.8%.
Volume for TNA today was about normal for the past month.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 8.5% with TNA down 1.3%. No divergence. Bad for TNA.
TNA was up for 5 days, down for 2 days, up 4 days and down today. Bad for TNA.
The high for TNA had been from yesterday at $70.98. Today’s high was $72.24, 1.7% higher. Good for TNA.
Yesterday, when TNA rose 3.1%, Ultimate Oscillator fell from 75.7 to 74.8, a divergence. Today that divergence played out as TNA fell 1.3%. Today, TNA fell and reading went from 74 to 69. Bad for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart has been rising for 9 days, and today well. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s long white candle closed the 50 day MA, a bit below the upper Bollinger band. MACD seems to be rising. $RVX seems to be rising. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s rare non-white candle touched the upper Bollinger Band and closed below it. MACD is rising. While it’s rare that $RUT has a black candle like today, it does happen, and usually returns to a white candle in 2-3 days. Bad for TNA for tomorrow.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji dropped to the Bollinger mid line, which was rising today. Bad for TNA.
TNA had a higher high, higher low and lower close – Neutral for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $1,393 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago. $2,305 million flowing into the market yesterday. $ 17 million flowing into the market today on a down day. Neutral for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Earl, Thanks for the post, I read it every night.
Tomorrow will be a funny day…
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/…
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA had a Hold signal today, was down today, and has a highly reliable SELL-IF signal for tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $69.90, up 23.7% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern.
TZA had a Wait (for a signal) today, was up today, and has a low reliability BUY-IF signal for tomorrow. The TZA sell price was $6.51. TZA closed today at $5.48, down 15.8% since the sell. The candlestick for today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a low reliability Bullish Harami Pattern.
Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 23.7%
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive): +3
Hold: GLD(gold, up 0.83%), UCO (2x oil, down 1.0%), EWU(England, down 1.4%)
Transition to Market Positive: 0
Transition to Market Negative: -16
SELL-IF: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), IWM(1x), SLV(silver), QQQQ, AAPL, DIA, SPY, EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), AMZN
Market Negative: -3
Wait: USO(oil), GOOG, GS
Comment: Bearish overall, Neutral Oil, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: possible buy TZA, possible sell TNA
You're not! I went long DRV today based on a candlestick pattern that I really like.
TNA opened flat (down a penny). TNA was up 2.0% at the high, and closed down 1.3%.
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA, but we are now trading TNA, as it is going up, and TZA is not.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Hold signal for today. The TNA buy was at $69.05, and TNA closed at $69.89, up 0.8%.
Volume for TNA today was about normal for the past month.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 8.5% with TNA down 1.3%. No divergence. Bad for TNA.
TNA was up for 5 days, down for 2 days, up 4 days and down today. Bad for TNA.
The high for TNA had been from yesterday at $70.98. Today’s high was $72.24, 1.7% higher. Good for TNA.
Yesterday, when TNA rose 3.1%, Ultimate Oscillator fell from 75.7 to 74.8, a divergence. Today that divergence played out as TNA fell 1.3%. Today, TNA fell and reading went from 74 to 69. Bad for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart has been rising for 9 days, and today well. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s long white candle closed the 50 day MA, a bit below the upper Bollinger band. MACD seems to be rising. $RVX seems to be rising. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s rare non-white candle touched the upper Bollinger Band and closed below it. MACD is rising. While it’s rare that $RUT has a black candle like today, it does happen, and usually returns to a white candle in 2-3 days.
Bad for TNA for tomorrow.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji dropped to the Bollinger mid line, which was rising today. Bad for TNA.
TNA had a higher high, higher low and lower close – Neutral for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$1,393 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
$2,305 million flowing into the market yesterday.
$ 17 million flowing into the market today on a down day.
Neutral for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TNA.
Carl at day’s end:
1205-1217 estimate for today (12 points)
1207.50–1216.50 actual today (9 points)
Carl nailed the high, close on the low.
Trade: No trades today.
Grade: C (made no money)
XLF broke support at 16.60
GS is dropping big
Yep
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45553…
I show resistance at 1218+
http://screencast.com/t/OTJmMDc0YWU