The bullish trend is still largely intact. Strong rally typically doesn't just roller overnight. A parabolic rise typically eperiences a stall. Rebounce. Failure. And resumption of decline.
Despite the Friday sell off, the damage has yet to establish a confirmed sell. What we have is more components turning bearish. What we need now, is a followthrough decline to move everything firmly into the “sell” territory. That will resolve all those overbought situations and reset the tone, and set up a nice buying opportunity, before the credit crisis raises its ugly head again. All of the banks are reporting fake profits based on reduced loss reserve. They are cooking the books, hoping that everything will turn out ok in time. The Audacity of Hope, indeed.
If there is no followthrough, then the intact bullish structure will just mean the melt up resumes to the cliff of madness. A possible but lower probability outcome.
1. 8 trading days left in the month, currently there are major violations given the current setup on $RUT/IWM & $DJI/DIA 2. $DJI is @ it's last daily containment pt. 11,137 3. large entity is suffocating the bid on GS 4. E-wavers think mkt. is going up, TA enthusiasts think mkt. is going up, Cycle gurus mkt. going up 5. the tape is being heavily painted
So what does all this tell me: keep an open mind to the market treading water in a tight range for a while should a large expansion in volatility not commence very soon. the odds of a deep retracement are getting lower by the day, given the setups on the monthly
Here's a monthly view of the triple knot the $SPX is currently running into:
2 containment pts. & the triple 21 ENV
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45386…
The bullish trend is still largely intact. Strong rally typically doesn't just roller overnight. A parabolic rise typically eperiences a stall. Rebounce. Failure. And resumption of decline.
Despite the Friday sell off, the damage has yet to establish a confirmed sell. What we have is more components turning bearish. What we need now, is a followthrough decline to move everything firmly into the “sell” territory. That will resolve all those overbought situations and reset the tone, and set up a nice buying opportunity, before the credit crisis raises its ugly head again. All of the banks are reporting fake profits based on reduced loss reserve. They are cooking the books, hoping that everything will turn out ok in time. The Audacity of Hope, indeed.
If there is no followthrough, then the intact bullish structure will just mean the melt up resumes to the cliff of madness. A possible but lower probability outcome.
In sum, waiting for the market to resolve itself.
Some general observations:
1. 8 trading days left in the month, currently there are major violations given the current setup on $RUT/IWM & $DJI/DIA
2. $DJI is @ it's last daily containment pt. 11,137
3. large entity is suffocating the bid on GS
4. E-wavers think mkt. is going up, TA enthusiasts think mkt. is going up, Cycle gurus mkt. going up
5. the tape is being heavily painted
So what does all this tell me: keep an open mind to the market treading water in a tight range for a while should a large expansion in volatility not commence very soon.
the odds of a deep retracement are getting lower by the day, given the setups on the monthly
There must be too many calls that they want to expire worthless. That's probably why the market is rallying today.
Too bullish to me. Down tomorrow. imo
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV
operators dumping the $VIX into expiration tomorrow
been out all morning, SPY almost tested 121.03
I think it is hilarious. It would be less so if I was losing money today.
He is due for a good day, and he doubled up. Probably means we go higher.
I watched it anyway 🙂