If you toss 20 heads, the next one is always 50 -50, so is the one after that, and so forth. Every individual toss is ALWAYS 50-50 irrespective of what has transpired in the past. It is called independent random event. We can get bogged down by the extremely low odds of flipping 21 heads consecutively. You have to look at it this way. The odds of flipping 20 heads consecutively is extremely low. But once you have achieved 20 heads, the odd of slipping another head, is still 50-50.
Stock market returns are not random. Just that factors that affect the returns change over time and exert varying degree of influence at different time. This confused the academics and lead to incorrect conclusion.
SC = Smart Coin. Ever heard of the smartcoin theory, Red?
Take 100 coins and flip them. You keep those that turn head and discard the tails. Repeat the process until you end up with one coin. That is your SMART COIN. See? This coin has managed to always turn up on it head. THis coin has intelligence! It beats 99 coins! You have the data to prove that it has turned up on its head consecutively in every single toss! What happens when you toss it again next time?
There are smart coins everywhere. 😉 You can find them whereever you have a bunch of coins. There is always one that always turn up head first. LOL
I'd estimate, that if it follows a similar decline as the previous one to 1044, that it should take about 3 weeks to hit the light blue line.
Since the line will continue rising, it should be around the 1060 area by then. That would be about the 10,000 level on the DOW too.
So, the destination is known, and the time to get there should put us into early May. What's not known, is whether it starts this week or next?
It is still possible that this week could end up, and make it the 7th week in a row. Not likely, but possible.
I haven't heard of any scheduled meeting, with Obama or one of his henchmen talking this week, so maybe they plan on letting the earnings do the talking for them?
They usually talk when they want to keep the market from falling, with the except of when Obama wanted the last sell off to start, so he came on TV and made empty threats to the banks.
That's when we dropped to 1044 of course. Now of course, the earnings could be the blame, or maybe some news out of Greece or one of the other bankrupt countries.
Here's a big picture view of $SPX daily containment pts. Now the origin of the setup that gave us the Feb. 5 low came way back on May. 4 2009 when $SPX busted through purple containment and never looked back. The common theme many of you are starting to see is containment pts. always get backtested. The Feb. 5th low terminated @ purple containment. http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45102…
You'll notice on the chart the light blue line $SPX busted through on 7.16.2009 didn't get backtested. Guess what, it's going to get back tested next.
Obama once said that we are a Muslim country. I believe he meant it.
Our tilt away from our all of our traditional relationships with our traditional friends is getting the world nervous that they don't quite know what we will and what we will not do.
This encourages all the bad actors out there, and drives oil up.
The coin tossing stuffs are wrong, Red.
If you toss 20 heads, the next one is always 50 -50, so is the one after that, and so forth. Every individual toss is ALWAYS 50-50 irrespective of what has transpired in the past. It is called independent random event. We can get bogged down by the extremely low odds of flipping 21 heads consecutively. You have to look at it this way. The odds of flipping 20 heads consecutively is extremely low. But once you have achieved 20 heads, the odd of slipping another head, is still 50-50.
Stock market returns are not random. Just that factors that affect the returns change over time and exert varying degree of influence at different time. This confused the academics and lead to incorrect conclusion.
SC = Smart Coin. Ever heard of the smartcoin theory, Red?
Take 100 coins and flip them. You keep those that turn head and discard the tails. Repeat the process until you end up with one coin. That is your SMART COIN. See? This coin has managed to always turn up on it head. THis coin has intelligence! It beats 99 coins! You have the data to prove that it has turned up on its head consecutively in every single toss! What happens when you toss it again next time?
There are smart coins everywhere. 😉 You can find them whereever you have a bunch of coins. There is always one that always turn up head first. LOL
Well said!
And it is insidious as most folks equate it with a National Sales Tax; which it s not.
How long will the market shrug this off?
To your earlier comment, I am very concerned about Pres Obama's 'dising' of our allies.
I am concerned that I will wake up some day soon to an invasion of Iran by Israel. It will not come as expected. They are no dummies over there.
Still waiting for Kuwait to adopt Democracy which was to happen after the first Gulf War.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Eurozone-nations-…
could this be the final push?
The VAT tax is a clever way to tax the poor and all those making money illegally, or with ways around paying income taxes.
It's also a great way to get back some of the money the government pays out when people draw social security, or receive government pensions.
It's coming.
I'd estimate, that if it follows a similar decline as the previous one to 1044, that it should take about 3 weeks to hit the light blue line.
Since the line will continue rising, it should be around the 1060 area by then. That would be about the 10,000 level on the DOW too.
So, the destination is known, and the time to get there should put us into early May. What's not known, is whether it starts this week or next?
It is still possible that this week could end up, and make it the 7th week in a row. Not likely, but possible.
I haven't heard of any scheduled meeting, with Obama or one of his henchmen talking this week, so maybe they plan on letting the earnings do the talking for them?
They usually talk when they want to keep the market from falling, with the except of when Obama wanted the last sell off to start, so he came on TV and made empty threats to the banks.
That's when we dropped to 1044 of course. Now of course, the earnings could be the blame, or maybe some news out of Greece or one of the other bankrupt countries.
This story is interesting…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36388741
Especially the part about…
“It is hoped that the finance ministers can make a very strong statement (of support for Greece) before financial markets open Monday”
Why is so important I wonder? Hmmm? Something's brewing…
How true.
Check this out as well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ar…
Excellent post Red
Here's a big picture view of $SPX daily containment pts.
Now the origin of the setup that gave us the Feb. 5 low came way back on May. 4 2009 when $SPX busted through purple containment and never looked back.
The common theme many of you are starting to see is containment pts. always get backtested. The Feb. 5th low terminated @ purple containment.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45102…
You'll notice on the chart the light blue line $SPX busted through on 7.16.2009 didn't get backtested. Guess what, it's going to get back tested next.
Burned by going short,No balls to go long heavy ,so it the defined loss play
TZA 7.00 calls @ .03 cents
Obama once said that we are a Muslim country. I believe he meant it.
Our tilt away from our all of our traditional relationships with our traditional friends is getting the world nervous that they don't quite know what we will and what we will not do.
This encourages all the bad actors out there, and drives oil up.
I sure hope he's wrong on oil Earl… I'm tired of paying almost $3.00 per gallon for gas! That sucker needs to go down, or it will choke the economy.