Ok gang… I did take a short position when we tagged 118.00 again recently. It was a 117/111 Vertical Put Spread… meaning I bought the 117 put, and sold the 111 put. This is short term, as they are April puts.
So, I have 2 weeks for the SPY to close below 117, which I believe it will do so before the options expire on Friday the 16th of April.
Since I sold the 111 put, I don't want the market to go below that level, which I don't think will happen. I think the support at 1115 spx will be the bounce point that will squeeze the shorts into opx.
After that bounce back up to whatever level benefits the market makers the most (meaning they have too pay out as little as possible to both bulls and bears), I think they will sell off again the week after opx, down to the 1078 area.
Then, as all the bears get short, as massive squeeze taking us into the following summer months… up to the 11,816 DOW level. That's the plan I'm hoping for… will it play out like that? I doubt it.
Sounds like a good plan SC… I'm going short today with my first 33 cents, then I'll deploy the 2nd 33 cents on Monday, and hold on to the last 33 cents… just in case I need to call someone to bail me out of jail for doing something stupid after the market goes against me.
Red, try to adopt a ladder system. Divide your capital, which in my case, would be the a buck two fitty savings from my janitor job (hehe if you read this, OBG)… Anyway, divide your capital into 3-4 portions and deploy them in stages. Your life will be a lot happier b/c you dont have to keep pulling your hair out over when is the best point to go all in. There is no practical way to pinpoint the exact optimal point to go all in. It is always clear ex post.
Kaching! lol Sounds good, just as long as it is not all in.
been out of the office all morning
$SPX made it's marginal new high and in the process printed 1178.50 it's VST de-leverage pt.
$VIX hit it's VST de-leverage pt. of 16.90
the situation is improving for the bears, I'd like to see us go sideways to up into the close
Ok gang… I did take a short position when we tagged 118.00 again recently. It was a 117/111 Vertical Put Spread… meaning I bought the 117 put, and sold the 111 put. This is short term, as they are April puts.
So, I have 2 weeks for the SPY to close below 117, which I believe it will do so before the options expire on Friday the 16th of April.
Since I sold the 111 put, I don't want the market to go below that level, which I don't think will happen. I think the support at 1115 spx will be the bounce point that will squeeze the shorts into opx.
After that bounce back up to whatever level benefits the market makers the most (meaning they have too pay out as little as possible to both bulls and bears), I think they will sell off again the week after opx, down to the 1078 area.
Then, as all the bears get short, as massive squeeze taking us into the following summer months… up to the 11,816 DOW level. That's the plan I'm hoping for… will it play out like that? I doubt it.
Thanks SC. Appreciate it.
lol
Sounds like a good plan SC… I'm going short today with my first 33 cents, then I'll deploy the 2nd 33 cents on Monday, and hold on to the last 33 cents… just in case I need to call someone to bail me out of jail for doing something stupid after the market goes against me.
Red, try to adopt a ladder system. Divide your capital, which in my case, would be the a buck two fitty savings from my janitor job (hehe if you read this, OBG)… Anyway, divide your capital into 3-4 portions and deploy them in stages. Your life will be a lot happier b/c you dont have to keep pulling your hair out over when is the best point to go all in. There is no practical way to pinpoint the exact optimal point to go all in. It is always clear ex post.
Well, didn't I say we will help you recover the drawdown in your portfolio? 🙂 I mean it. So stop worrying. We'll fix it for ya.
Thanks SC. Wish you were all here to hold my hand!
I'm inclined to go short today, as although 118.25 is only a marginal high, it is still a new high as Sundancer posted in one of his charts earlier.
We might go higher on Monday… or not. But I certainly believe that we will be lower in the next 2 weeks.