If I'm going to take a position today on the time decay issue, I need to take another look at $RUT vs TZA, for the past month, 3 months & 6 months. Or something like that.
Last I looked, it was not an issue. But things may have changed.
If the market goes down, you will be ok, with or without time decay.
I feel like the guy driving to work and the passenger is going on and on about how windy it is and how the car's mileage is really gonna suck today.
I am totally confused Sundancer. The first chart you post looks bullish and then second ones you post look bearish (as long as we get a good sized sell off today). I thought you expected sell off tomorrow or Monday but you mention below we are going to new highs in April? I know you are giving us information expecting nothing in return, I just want to try to clarify what I missing. The other thing is that Poco's chart which I posted is somewhat convincing me that we are due for a trend change since the MACD have crossed.
People need to be careful which 3x ETF they buy, and when they buy it. That simple truth probably applies to cars, houses, and bananas.
Monica went with inverse ETF's when positive ETFs would have worked better — whether they were 1x, 2x, or 3x.
Have you compared a chart of TNA with a chart of $RUT and noticed some amazing difference? They look the same to me. The differences don't matter.
I don't have an easy way to chart $RUT and turn it upside down, so when I want to study TZA, I just chart it. It doesn't look that different from an upside down $RUT chart anyway.
Did you actually look at statistics for TNA, TZA and $RUT over the past 6 months and discover some meaningful time decay? I don't see it. If I can't see it, then how can it possibly matter?
The decline and subsequent rally will kill all the bears too. The decline will suck in the fence sitting, badly burned bears. While the subsequent rally will just kill them off once and for all. I am being a bit dramatic here, but it is a very likely outcome.
Monica,
If I'm going to take a position today on the time decay issue, I need to take another look at $RUT vs TZA, for the past month, 3 months & 6 months. Or something like that.
Last I looked, it was not an issue. But things may have changed.
If the market goes down, you will be ok, with or without time decay.
I feel like the guy driving to work and the passenger is going on and on about how windy it is and how the car's mileage is really gonna suck today.
Oh – I must have missed this. Looks like you are expecting a big sell off with a large subsequent rally.
Earl, I think SC was saying that the time decay isn't an issue, but the way the market trends does and I think you agree.
I am totally confused Sundancer. The first chart you post looks bullish and then second ones you post look bearish (as long as we get a good sized sell off today). I thought you expected sell off tomorrow or Monday but you mention below we are going to new highs in April? I know you are giving us information expecting nothing in return, I just want to try to clarify what I missing. The other thing is that Poco's chart which I posted is somewhat convincing me that we are due for a trend change since the MACD have crossed.
Red,
People need to be careful which 3x ETF they buy, and when they buy it. That simple truth probably applies to cars, houses, and bananas.
Monica went with inverse ETF's when positive ETFs would have worked better — whether they were 1x, 2x, or 3x.
Have you compared a chart of TNA with a chart of $RUT and noticed some amazing difference? They look the same to me. The differences don't matter.
I don't have an easy way to chart $RUT and turn it upside down, so when I want to study TZA, I just chart it. It doesn't look that different from an upside down $RUT chart anyway.
Did you actually look at statistics for TNA, TZA and $RUT over the past 6 months and discover some meaningful time decay? I don't see it. If I can't see it, then how can it possibly matter?
the bears will be almost extinct what ever path we take
mini-crash to 1078 and the bears will go all in short thinking the top is in
continued uni-directional move to 11,816
the vix setup says a downward thrust is near, I'd like to see marginal new highs there is way too many stops above 1074 area
The decline and subsequent rally will kill all the bears too. The decline will suck in the fence sitting, badly burned bears. While the subsequent rally will just kill them off once and for all. I am being a bit dramatic here, but it is a very likely outcome.
Extreme complacency, on tops of all the other negative conditions. The making of a perfect storm…
What's your thoughts on this move up to 11816 DOW? Straight up from here, or down to the spy prints around 107 first, then up?
A continued straight up move from here would absolutely kill every last bear out there… that's for sure!
the $VIX setup says we're going to get a down week soon as it currently is in it's 8th consecutive down week