It is not a time decay issue. It is a market movement issue. If you get a strongly trending market, whether it is against that etfs or for that etfs, the daily rebalancing will mitigate the negative effect of the leverage, and increase the positive effect of the leverage. It is the choppy market that erodes your equity like a cheese grader. This is not a critical issue for people who are just scalping in and out and go home happy at the end of the day. But it is very critical for buy and hold.
This is a matter of math. Personal opinion is irrelevent. (Academic speak. No offence intended )
You know I own them. You said that time decay is not really an issue which means that whether you own or short these instruments doesn't matter. I just want to verify that i understand you correctly. I am seeking your opinion because I know you understand it better than I do – that's all.
Hey Earl… that's what we are all here for. To discuss different trading strategies. I want you to make money with your style just like everyone else. If it works for you… that's great buddy.
It just didn't work for me, but then again… I was swing trading them and the sideways market was killing me. Maybe your time frame is shorter, and they are working for you?
But for Monica, time is her enemy. As for charting them, I agree with SC, in that you are better off charting the underlining ETF, not the leveraged one. Just my opinion bud.
Not sure I understand what you are saying. I know 3X ETFs are like playing with fire, just wondering whether the time decay is worse shorting them or holding them. Thought you would know best.
So we have 2 targets now SC… One is the 107.38 spy that I posted and 107.82 that Sundancer posted. Now we have 11816 Dow, unless we are reading it wrong?
What if the 118.16 was referring to the March 25th high on the SPY, indicating that's “the high is in”, and the next target down is 109.13? Yesterdays' close on the DIA was 109.10 in my account, not 109.13.
Hard to figure this one out, but look at it this way… if we start selling, we know the target. If they start buying, we know the target there too.
If that's the case, then the selling afterward will point to a low being put in this fall, maybe in September, instead of a fall correction.
the reaction this morning came off max contain on the 60 min $SPX, this is hit #4 of the up-trend
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44792…
many monthly setups are looking at violations if we don't get a good sized sell off today
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44264…
SPX 1162.50 purple line
$RUT 679.75 area
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44271…
It is not a time decay issue. It is a market movement issue. If you get a strongly trending market, whether it is against that etfs or for that etfs, the daily rebalancing will mitigate the negative effect of the leverage, and increase the positive effect of the leverage. It is the choppy market that erodes your equity like a cheese grader. This is not a critical issue for people who are just scalping in and out and go home happy at the end of the day. But it is very critical for buy and hold.
This is a matter of math. Personal opinion is irrelevent. (Academic speak. No offence intended )
You know I own them. You said that time decay is not really an issue which means that whether you own or short these instruments doesn't matter. I just want to verify that i understand you correctly. I am seeking your opinion because I know you understand it better than I do – that's all.
Hey Earl… that's what we are all here for. To discuss different trading strategies. I want you to make money with your style just like everyone else. If it works for you… that's great buddy.
It just didn't work for me, but then again… I was swing trading them and the sideways market was killing me. Maybe your time frame is shorter, and they are working for you?
But for Monica, time is her enemy. As for charting them, I agree with SC, in that you are better off charting the underlining ETF, not the leveraged one. Just my opinion bud.
Here's the setup:
$SPX is going to backtest the top white TL, it will be @ 1255 in April, it will pierce the TL intra-month by 20-30 pts.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44654…
things are going to get real interesting, we have downside de-leverage pts. and up-side de-leverage pts.
for those trading longer time frames, don't use leveraged instruments
What I mean to say is that I completely disagree with those that believe there is something wrong with buying or charting the 3x ETFs.
I also see no point in discussing it.
Those that think it makes sense, and those that don't, should continue what they are doing.
SPY going to around 107 and then ralling to around 127, is within the realm of possibilities. Too good to be true, however. lol
Not sure I understand what you are saying. I know 3X ETFs are like playing with fire, just wondering whether the time decay is worse shorting them or holding them. Thought you would know best.
So we have 2 targets now SC… One is the 107.38 spy that I posted and 107.82 that Sundancer posted. Now we have 11816 Dow, unless we are reading it wrong?
What if the 118.16 was referring to the March 25th high on the SPY, indicating that's “the high is in”, and the next target down is 109.13? Yesterdays' close on the DIA was 109.10 in my account, not 109.13.
Hard to figure this one out, but look at it this way… if we start selling, we know the target. If they start buying, we know the target there too.