TNA remains a WAIT (wait for some kind of buy signal). The sell was at $55.61. TNA closed today at $55.89, up 0.5% since the sale. The candlestick today was the same as yesterday: a White Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
TZA remains a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.99, down 0.72% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning: Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14 Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05 Buy at $7.04, now down 0.72%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring: Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43 Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs (Market positive): Confirmed BUY: UWM(2x), DIA, QQQQ Not very reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): URE(2x), IYR(1x) Wait: DRV (-3x), SRS(-2x) Highly reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): SPY Hold: IWM(1x), DRN(3x)
Market Negative (no change from yesterday): Wait: TNA (3x) Hold: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Comment: more market positive than yesterday Action for tomorrow: none
Too Funny… the conspiracy theory posts are what's sets this blog apart from all the others, and now I'm back in the real world with this post.
So I need a like change from time to time… the red pill was tasting funny, so I took the blue pill tonight. (But you know that won't last long, as I like red better).
Red, thanks very much for the reply. I have thought about this before and what you are saying makes sense about shorting the bull ETF's instead. Earl, I think you had talked about this? Does this always hold true?
The only problem I see there is like with any shorts, there are limited possible gains and infinite possible losses. I know you are not basing your decisions on any one factor nor am I, but I just wanted to point that out. Nothing wrong with sitting it out. I wish I had. Thanks for the option explanation.
All the indicators are pointing down now, and my decision is based on many different things… not one person or one chart. I may simply sit this move out? I don't want burnt again, and missing a move down is better then being in short and the rally continue.
As for you… don't go long on any 2x or 3x etf's anymore. Time will erode both the bear and bull etf's on the long side, as they will both eventually fall to zero.
Of course they will do a reverse split before that happens, but the best way to play them is to always go short on them. Of course that means buying options… but not just any options.
You would buy them deep in the money… like 10-20 dollars for a 100 etf. That way, there would be little erosion from time decay, so you wouldn't lose much or any in a sideways market.
And, if the market did go sideways, those leveraged etf's would slowly fall, as the leverage effect will alway work against them, and force them down over time, not up.
I learned that lesson playing FAZ and FAS. I keep going long on FAZ when I thought the banks were bearish. What I should have done was to go short on FAS, and the time would have worked in my favor during the choppy market.
Then, if I expected the banks to rise, I should short the bearish etf FAZ, which is the same as going long on the banks. It should fall slowly during and sideways market, and of course fall if the banks rose as expected.
Point being… all leveraged etf's are designed to fall over time. You always want to short them. Either short the bearish or bullish one… depending on what you expect the market to do, but never go long on any of them… unless you are day trading of course, as that's who they are designed for anyway… not swing trader's or long term traders.
That makes sense SC and definitely appreciate your insight. I know you weren't attacking Dread's charts. I just want to point out that his charts do tend to be useful but maybe the underlying symbol is more important. I dunno.
And another thing – Sundancer may not have all the answers but I think he knows a heck of lot more than any of us can imagine. That being said, blind faith in anything doesn't work – have to believe it yourself or you can't stick with it.
Here's the thing Red – I got short way too early based on my fundamental belief which was silly. In my opinion, there is now real technical evidence that a trend change is about to begin. So, maybe risk some capital (not all) and don't do it with options since time is of the essence there. Decide whether you are in this for the long haul or just a swing trade because that makes a huge difference if the market goes against you. Even if you look at the chart I just posted from Poco, you will see that even though the trend changes when the MA cross, it is not exact and there are lots of ups and downs and fakeouts in between. So either you hold like me or you day trade like others. If you do hold, it won't matter if the market goes against you on a particular day. You just never know when the “big drop” is going to happen or whether it will just trickle down. That being said, if you miss a 300 point drop, there will be other opportunities to get in as long as you are willing to take them. Some may think it is crazy not to put real stops in on the short side and it probably is. But the market to me anyway shows all the signs of a breakdown and I don't think holding short (through reverse ETFs) is that different from holding stocks long. Not trying to preach because you know a hell of a lot more than me, just providing my perspective.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA remains a WAIT (wait for some kind of buy signal). The sell was at $55.61. TNA closed today at $55.89, up 0.5% since the sale. The candlestick today was the same as yesterday: a White Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
TZA remains a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.99, down 0.72% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 0.72%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs (Market positive):
Confirmed BUY: UWM(2x), DIA, QQQQ
Not very reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Wait: DRV (-3x), SRS(-2x)
Highly reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): SPY
Hold: IWM(1x), DRN(3x)
Market Negative (no change from yesterday):
Wait: TNA (3x)
Hold: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Comment: more market positive than yesterday
Action for tomorrow: none
Some things matter, and some things don't.
Too Funny… the conspiracy theory posts are what's sets this blog apart from all the others, and now I'm back in the real world with this post.
So I need a like change from time to time… the red pill was tasting funny, so I took the blue pill tonight. (But you know that won't last long, as I like red better).
This is one of your best posts. Logical and absence of conspiracy stuffs. Welcome back to the real world, Red! LOL
Red, thanks very much for the reply. I have thought about this before and what you are saying makes sense about shorting the bull ETF's instead. Earl, I think you had talked about this? Does this always hold true?
The only problem I see there is like with any shorts, there are limited possible gains and infinite possible losses. I know you are not basing your decisions on any one factor nor am I, but I just wanted to point that out. Nothing wrong with sitting it out. I wish I had. Thanks for the option explanation.
Well Monica…
All the indicators are pointing down now, and my decision is based on many different things… not one person or one chart. I may simply sit this move out? I don't want burnt again, and missing a move down is better then being in short and the rally continue.
As for you… don't go long on any 2x or 3x etf's anymore. Time will erode both the bear and bull etf's on the long side, as they will both eventually fall to zero.
Of course they will do a reverse split before that happens, but the best way to play them is to always go short on them. Of course that means buying options… but not just any options.
You would buy them deep in the money… like 10-20 dollars for a 100 etf. That way, there would be little erosion from time decay, so you wouldn't lose much or any in a sideways market.
And, if the market did go sideways, those leveraged etf's would slowly fall, as the leverage effect will alway work against them, and force them down over time, not up.
I learned that lesson playing FAZ and FAS. I keep going long on FAZ when I thought the banks were bearish. What I should have done was to go short on FAS, and the time would have worked in my favor during the choppy market.
Then, if I expected the banks to rise, I should short the bearish etf FAZ, which is the same as going long on the banks. It should fall slowly during and sideways market, and of course fall if the banks rose as expected.
Point being… all leveraged etf's are designed to fall over time. You always want to short them. Either short the bearish or bullish one… depending on what you expect the market to do, but never go long on any of them… unless you are day trading of course, as that's who they are designed for anyway… not swing trader's or long term traders.
That makes sense SC and definitely appreciate your insight. I know you weren't attacking Dread's charts. I just want to point out that his charts do tend to be useful but maybe the underlying symbol is more important. I dunno.
And another thing – Sundancer may not have all the answers but I think he knows a heck of lot more than any of us can imagine. That being said, blind faith in anything doesn't work – have to believe it yourself or you can't stick with it.
Here's the thing Red – I got short way too early based on my fundamental belief which was silly. In my opinion, there is now real technical evidence that a trend change is about to begin. So, maybe risk some capital (not all) and don't do it with options since time is of the essence there. Decide whether you are in this for the long haul or just a swing trade because that makes a huge difference if the market goes against you. Even if you look at the chart I just posted from Poco, you will see that even though the trend changes when the MA cross, it is not exact and there are lots of ups and downs and fakeouts in between. So either you hold like me or you day trade like others. If you do hold, it won't matter if the market goes against you on a particular day. You just never know when the “big drop” is going to happen or whether it will just trickle down. That being said, if you miss a 300 point drop, there will be other opportunities to get in as long as you are willing to take them. Some may think it is crazy not to put real stops in on the short side and it probably is. But the market to me anyway shows all the signs of a breakdown and I don't think holding short (through reverse ETFs) is that different from holding stocks long. Not trying to preach because you know a hell of a lot more than me, just providing my perspective.
Just trying to be helpful. 🙂
One of my mentors used to say, “If you don't agree, then do as you please and live with the consequences.” lol