TNA remains a WAIT (wait for some kind of buy signal). The sell was at $55.61. TNA closed today at $55.89, up 0.5% since the sale. The candlestick today was the same as yesterday: a White Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
TZA remains a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.99, down 0.72% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning: Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14 Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05 Buy at $7.04, now down 0.72%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring: Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43 Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs (Market positive): Confirmed BUY: UWM(2x), DIA, QQQQ Not very reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): URE(2x), IYR(1x) Wait: DRV (-3x), SRS(-2x) Highly reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): SPY Hold: IWM(1x), DRN(3x)
Market Negative (no change from yesterday): Wait: TNA (3x) Hold: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Comment: more market positive than yesterday Action for tomorrow: none
The more I look at charts, the less certain I feel about the very short term direction. The stochastics say a drop is coming, but during low volume conditions, we almost always ramp up.
TZA opened down 0.5%. Gap was filled. Yesterday’s gap from $7.17 to $7.16 was not filled. TZA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 1.0%.
We have been in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA. After eleven days, this trade is down 4.8%, using AmericanBulls Buy & Sell strategy. With a simple buy and hold strategy, this trade would have been down 4.3%.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA. AmericanBulls has TNA with a WAIT signal. Will buy TNA when AB has a confirmed BUY signal.
Volume for TNA today and yesterday were the 2 lowest of the last 16 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was down 2.1 % today with TZA down 1.0%. No divergence.
TNA had been down 3 days in a row, but now up two in a row. Good for TNA.
The high for TNA three days ago was $58.23, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $56.73, 2.6% below that high.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 twenty eight trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 until just recently and is back above 50 today. The fall in the Ultimate Oscillator coincided with a 27% rise in TNA, forming a rather monster divergence. Indicating the end of strength for TNA, at some point. Ultimate Oscillator readings have been up for the past two days. Good for TNA, short term.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over downwards three days ago and is moving down. This last happened 2 months ago. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle closed above the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA), re-entering an area of congestion. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX might be falling. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The small white candle for $RUT is in the congestion area. The top Bollinger band is falling, and $RUT seems to be in a mature topping formation. MACD has crossed down. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle rose to the middle of the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band is falling. Looks like the topping process is continuing. Bad for TNA.
TNA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – good for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $192 million flowing out of the market on a flat day. Neutral.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
McClellan acting strange. Normally when there is such a clear move of the MACD below the 0 line, the market sells off if the McCLellan is below 0. Not this time. I am afraid the MACD will make it back above the 0 line without a sell off. That will be a buy signal. Yuck. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
My thoughts on TZA:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
If the pattern holds, there will be a retest of the recent lows before a reversal in TZA.
Dreadwin,
I agree. Looks fuzzy for tomorrow. The last two days, I played the morning gap fill. I guess I will be looking to do that again tomorrow.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA remains a WAIT (wait for some kind of buy signal). The sell was at $55.61. TNA closed today at $55.89, up 0.5% since the sale. The candlestick today was the same as yesterday: a White Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
TZA remains a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.99, down 0.72% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 0.72%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs (Market positive):
Confirmed BUY: UWM(2x), DIA, QQQQ
Not very reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Wait: DRV (-3x), SRS(-2x)
Highly reliable BUY-IF (2nd day): SPY
Hold: IWM(1x), DRN(3x)
Market Negative (no change from yesterday):
Wait: TNA (3x)
Hold: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Comment: more market positive than yesterday
Action for tomorrow: none
Nice Post Earl, I am still in cash.
The more I look at charts, the less certain I feel about the very short term direction. The stochastics say a drop is coming, but during low volume conditions, we almost always ramp up.
TZA opened down 0.5%. Gap was filled. Yesterday’s gap from $7.17 to $7.16 was not filled. TZA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 1.0%.
We have been in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
After eleven days, this trade is down 4.8%, using AmericanBulls Buy & Sell strategy. With a simple buy and hold strategy, this trade would have been down 4.3%.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls has TNA with a WAIT signal. Will buy TNA when AB has a confirmed BUY signal.
Volume for TNA today and yesterday were the 2 lowest of the last 16 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was down 2.1 % today with TZA down 1.0%. No divergence.
TNA had been down 3 days in a row, but now up two in a row. Good for TNA.
The high for TNA three days ago was $58.23, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $56.73, 2.6% below that high.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 twenty eight trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 until just recently and is back above 50 today. The fall in the Ultimate Oscillator coincided with a 27% rise in TNA, forming a rather monster divergence. Indicating the end of strength for TNA, at some point. Ultimate Oscillator readings have been up for the past two days. Good for TNA, short term.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over downwards three days ago and is moving down. This last happened 2 months ago. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle closed above the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA), re-entering an area of congestion. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX might be falling. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The small white candle for $RUT is in the congestion area. The top Bollinger band is falling, and $RUT seems to be in a mature topping formation. MACD has crossed down. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle rose to the middle of the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band is falling. Looks like the topping process is continuing. Bad for TNA.
TNA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – good for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $192 million flowing out of the market on a flat day. Neutral.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TNA for tomorrow.
McClellan acting strange. Normally when there is such a clear move of the MACD below the 0 line, the market sells off if the McCLellan is below 0. Not this time. I am afraid the MACD will make it back above the 0 line without a sell off. That will be a buy signal. Yuck.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Including me!
Carl at day’s end:
1168-1180 estimate for today (12 points)
1164.25 -1173.75 actual today (9.50 points)
Today’s range was generally lower than Carl’s.
Trades:
In /ES at 1168.50 and 1168.25 yesterday, sold both at 1168.50 today. (gain of 0.25 points in two days)
Grade: C (didn’t lose any money)
you'll notice HOD in the $SPX was 1177.83
it's de-leverage pt. is 1178.50
$VIX 16.90
Round & Round we go… Most people are about to puke…