Hey everyone, I come here and to other blogs as a way to get some kind of therapy , it calms me to read intelligent posts from real traders and not idiotic investors and fund managers.
I'm a bear at heart and believe the the entire worlds financial system will collapse in 10 to 15 years.
I been trading from home full time for 5 years. I was 50% to 200% short at the beginning of Jan 08 and covered just before the elections. I was holding, C,LEN,HIG,M to name a few.
The run up in 09 took me by surprise. I didn't make as much as 08 but I did learn some things I'll never forget.
1- it's in everyone's best interest to have markets rise. Fund managers will lie P/E's of 30 to 80 are normal,the government will spin economic reports -omit food and energy from inflation , are you kidding me? unemployment reports ,add census workers, add cash for clunkers to the GDP ect ect.. you get my point.
2- the PPT does exist
3- when the dollar gets weaker it's bullish for the market , when it gets stronger it doesn't matter.
4- when multi year support is broken it's a bear trap.
5- bad reports are great because it's not as bad.
6- new traders and investors will end up broke in the future “buy the dip ” it's easy man!
7 – SPX support and resistance does not matter, I follow the NAS and RUT , from now on.
8- what caused the pull back? never mind support and resistance in this BS bull market…. yep, took me a year of 09's BS to get that into my head. for example, in Jan this year when we were crashing ( I shorted lightly BTW ) I wrote down the 3 things that caused the pull back, Greece, Obama's bank reform, and Bernanke's reappointment . I put the post it note on my monitor and it was January 29th when I covered because all 3 of these were taken care of or starting to get ignored, on Feb 4th, I went long 25% in, the 5th when JPM bought up the whole market that Friday I went 50% and 100% all in when we hit 1010 on the SPX or 2250 on the NAS.
I'm all in cash now, hoping for a pull back, and run into earnings, if AA, and INTC report and act like that did last quarter, “go down” I will be shorting very heavy on that day.
also, for this Fridays employment report, I heard a guy on the floor today suggest if it's a good number the markets will go down because interest will soon rise because everything is better!! and if they don't get 250k and it's like 100 k or less a double dip could be in the works!!!!
TNA remains a WAIT (wait for some kind of buy signal). The sell was at $55.61. TNA closed today at $55.38, down 0.4% since the sale. The candlestick today was a White Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
TZA remains a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $7.06, up 0.28% since the buy. The candlestick today was a doji (a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning: Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14 Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05 Buy at $7.04, now up 0.28%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring: Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43 Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs: (Market positive): Not very reliable BUY-IF: UWM(2x), URE(2x), IYR(1x) Wait: DRV (-3x), SRS(-2x) Highly reliable BUY-IF: SPY, DIA Hold: IWM(1x), DRN(3x) BUY-IF: QQQQ (Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern, not very reliable, followed by Doji)
TZA opened down 1.2%. Gap from $7.17 to $7.16 was not filled. TZA was down 0.1% at the high, and closed down 1.5%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA. After nine days, this trade is down 3.8%, and owns TZA over night.
Volume for TZA was roughly average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was down 3.7% today with TZA down 1.5%. No divergence.
TZA had been up 3 days in a row, but down today. Not good for TZA.
The low for TZA two days ago was $6.70, the lowest TZA price ever. The low today was $6.99, 4.3% above that low. Good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty four trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 for twenty two days and finally broke above 50 yesterday and today. Indicating the end of weakness for TZA. Good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over upwards three days ago and is moving up. This last happened 2 months ago. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle closed below the Top Bollinger Band. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX will be falling. The last time $RVX closed above the Top Bollinger Band (like what happened two days ago), $RUT fell for 10 days. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The doji candle for $RUT is in the congestion area. The top Bollinger band is falling, and $RUT seems to be in a mature topping formation. MACD has crossed down. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle rose to just below the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band is falling. Looks like a confirming that the topping process is continuing. Good for TZA.
TZA had a lower high, higher low and lower close – neutral for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $351 million flowing out of the market on a slightly up day. Generally good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Hey everyone, I come here and to other blogs as a way to get some kind of therapy , it calms me to read intelligent posts from
real traders and not idiotic investors and fund managers.
I'm a bear at heart and believe the the entire worlds financial system will collapse in 10 to 15 years.
I been trading from home full time for 5 years. I was 50% to 200% short at the beginning of Jan 08 and covered just before the elections. I was holding, C,LEN,HIG,M to name a few.
The run up in 09 took me by surprise. I didn't make as much as 08 but I did learn some things I'll never forget.
1- it's in everyone's best interest to have markets rise. Fund managers will lie P/E's of 30 to 80 are normal,the government will spin economic reports -omit food and energy from inflation , are you kidding me? unemployment reports ,add census workers, add cash for clunkers to the GDP ect ect.. you get my point.
2- the PPT does exist
3- when the dollar gets weaker it's bullish for the market , when it gets stronger it doesn't matter.
4- when multi year support is broken it's a bear trap.
5- bad reports are great because it's not as bad.
6- new traders and investors will end up broke in the future “buy the dip ” it's easy man!
7 – SPX support and resistance does not matter, I follow the NAS and RUT , from now on.
8- what caused the pull back? never mind support and resistance in this BS bull market…. yep, took me a year of 09's BS to get that into my head. for example, in Jan this year when we were crashing ( I shorted lightly BTW ) I wrote down the 3 things that caused the pull back, Greece, Obama's bank reform, and Bernanke's reappointment . I put the post it note on my monitor and it was January 29th when I covered because all 3 of these were taken care of or starting to get ignored, on Feb 4th, I went long 25% in, the 5th when JPM bought up the whole market that Friday I went 50% and 100% all in when we hit 1010 on the SPX or 2250 on the NAS.
I'm all in cash now, hoping for a pull back, and run into earnings, if AA, and INTC report and act like that did last quarter, “go down” I will be shorting very heavy on that day.
also, for this Fridays employment report, I heard a guy on the floor today suggest if it's a good number the markets will go down because interest will soon rise because everything is better!! and if they don't get 250k and it's like 100 k or less a double dip could be in the works!!!!
good luck
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA remains a WAIT (wait for some kind of buy signal). The sell was at $55.61. TNA closed today at $55.38, down 0.4% since the sale. The candlestick today was a White Spinning Top Candlestick (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
TZA remains a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $7.06, up 0.28% since the buy. The candlestick today was a doji (a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now up 0.28%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs:
(Market positive):
Not very reliable BUY-IF: UWM(2x), URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Wait: DRV (-3x), SRS(-2x)
Highly reliable BUY-IF: SPY, DIA
Hold: IWM(1x), DRN(3x)
BUY-IF: QQQQ (Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern, not very reliable, followed by Doji)
(Market negative):
Wait: TNA (3x)
Hold: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Action for Monday: none
TZA opened down 1.2%. Gap from $7.17 to $7.16 was not filled. TZA was down 0.1% at the high, and closed down 1.5%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA.
After nine days, this trade is down 3.8%, and owns TZA over night.
Volume for TZA was roughly average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was down 3.7% today with TZA down 1.5%. No divergence.
TZA had been up 3 days in a row, but down today. Not good for TZA.
The low for TZA two days ago was $6.70, the lowest TZA price ever. The low today was $6.99, 4.3% above that low. Good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty four trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 for twenty two days and finally broke above 50 yesterday and today. Indicating the end of weakness for TZA. Good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over upwards three days ago and is moving up. This last happened 2 months ago. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle closed below the Top Bollinger Band. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX will be falling. The last time $RVX closed above the Top Bollinger Band (like what happened two days ago), $RUT fell for 10 days. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The doji candle for $RUT is in the congestion area. The top Bollinger band is falling, and $RUT seems to be in a mature topping formation. MACD has crossed down. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle rose to just below the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band is falling. Looks like a confirming that the topping process is continuing. Good for TZA.
TZA had a lower high, higher low and lower close – neutral for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $351 million flowing out of the market on a slightly up day. Generally good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks good for TZA for tomorrow.
Carl at day’s end:
1163-1175 estimate for today (12 points)
1165.25 -1171 actual today (5.75 points)
Today was inside Carl’s range.
Trades:
In /ES at 1168.50 and 1168.25, did not sell. (1168.75 currently)
Grade: Incomplete
Part of IB has it 8.61 also. IB chart has it 8.65.
Consistency would be nice.
I stand corrected.
Stockcharts shows DRV's Friday close at 8.61 as does AB and Google. Today's close is 8.64.
Dreadwin,
I have DRV with a green bar, but closing down 3 cents from Friday's close, so not the traditional green.
Thanks Sundancer.
Maybe. DRV (3x bear real estate) was green today. Not all sectors are participating in the ramp up.
your day in the SUN will come, it's always darkest before the SUN rises