Congratulations on the new addition! And welcome to the next 18 yrs of homework problems, party problems, and boyfriend/girlfriend problems!! lol
The portfolio problem pales in comparison, in terms of significance. lol
If you are down 43%, then if the market goes from 1163 to 1080, that would most likely to reduce your overall losses from -43% to -31%.
1163 to 1080 is -7%. 3x inverse would translate into +21% more or less, theoretically. In order to recover the -43% drawdown, you need to compound +21% 3 times. It can be done, but certainly not going to be easy.
I do not advise parking in a 3x etfs. You may get lucky. But that is gambling. Trading is a business, not a recreation.
If you cannot actively follow the market, there are several strategies. I am not going to sugar coat this. It should be obvious that the methods you are using have not worked. No offense to all the people you have listened to. But all those forecasts and opinions have landed you in a hole that will take a lot of work just to climb out. It should be obvious that if you are going to listen to any opinion, it has to be from a soure with a verifiable record. If you are going to use a tool or a system or a method, you have to check to see how it deal with the dot com boom and bust, the 2003 bottom, the 2008 crash, and the 2009 bottom. It a method or a system has nothing to show you how it handled those boom and bust, then there is no reason to put any faith in it.
As you can see, BB signals work *eventually* but often lose in the short run. What I think I'm seeing on SPG recently is a truncated 5th wave. We'll find out soon enough.
That would be a 7.5% drop in just 3 days. On the $DJUSRE, that's just above the 50 day MA. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would really need some sort of powerful motive wave down (3 of 3?) and it would have to start Monday.
No worries SC. Sadly enough, I am down about 43%. I am imagining that if we make it to 1191, I will then be down about 50%. I lost about 10% right off bat on an option trade. Started shorting agressively with 3X bear ETFs around 1080 so that's around probably where I need the market to go to regain 85% or so of that loss. You don't have to point out my insaneness or folly, I am well aware of it at this point. I will have to decide whether to swing trade along the way or just hold and pray 🙂 I am due with a baby in 5 weeks plus have a 3 year old so I won't be able to spend a lot of time focusing on the market anymore after that.
I tend to follow SPG (the #1 holding) on a daily basis. It is the “best of breed” mall owner. I also watch DDR (the weakest) and CBL (my local mall owner). I don't pay as much attention to (but still do follow from time to time) the homebuilders as well. SPG has already given a bollinger band sell signal, and tends to lead the $DJUSRE.
If you don't mind my asking. How much are you down, percentage wise? It would help to figure out what the realistic time frame and market movement needed to recoup the draw down.
the good news for those with bearish positions is the next ritual timing sequence comes in @ 4/4/2010 which is a Sunday, so the trading day immediately before/after 4/4 would provide an opportunity for a reversal. So either 4/1 or 4/5.
the origin of this sequence is the 3/24/2000 $SPX ATH
Congratulations on the new addition! And welcome to the next 18 yrs of homework problems, party problems, and boyfriend/girlfriend problems!! lol
The portfolio problem pales in comparison, in terms of significance. lol
If you are down 43%, then if the market goes from 1163 to 1080, that would most likely to reduce your overall losses from -43% to -31%.
1163 to 1080 is -7%. 3x inverse would translate into +21% more or less, theoretically. In order to recover the -43% drawdown, you need to compound +21% 3 times. It can be done, but certainly not going to be easy.
I do not advise parking in a 3x etfs. You may get lucky. But that is gambling. Trading is a business, not a recreation.
If you cannot actively follow the market, there are several strategies. I am not going to sugar coat this. It should be obvious that the methods you are using have not worked. No offense to all the people you have listened to. But all those forecasts and opinions have landed you in a hole that will take a lot of work just to climb out. It should be obvious that if you are going to listen to any opinion, it has to be from a soure with a verifiable record. If you are going to use a tool or a system or a method, you have to check to see how it deal with the dot com boom and bust, the 2003 bottom, the 2008 crash, and the 2009 bottom. It a method or a system has nothing to show you how it handled those boom and bust, then there is no reason to put any faith in it.
CBL chart:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
As you can see, there is a Head and Shoulders on this chart (many of the REITs are similar, which is why DRV seems to have an IHS set up).
SPG chart:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
As you can see, BB signals work *eventually* but often lose in the short run. What I think I'm seeing on SPG recently is a truncated 5th wave. We'll find out soon enough.
That would be a 7.5% drop in just 3 days. On the $DJUSRE, that's just above the 50 day MA. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would really need some sort of powerful motive wave down (3 of 3?) and it would have to start Monday.
50 on IYR seems to be strong support.
No worries SC. Sadly enough, I am down about 43%. I am imagining that if we make it to 1191, I will then be down about 50%. I lost about 10% right off bat on an option trade. Started shorting agressively with 3X bear ETFs around 1080 so that's around probably where I need the market to go to regain 85% or so of that loss. You don't have to point out my insaneness or folly, I am well aware of it at this point. I will have to decide whether to swing trade along the way or just hold and pray 🙂 I am due with a baby in 5 weeks plus have a 3 year old so I won't be able to spend a lot of time focusing on the market anymore after that.
I tend to follow SPG (the #1 holding) on a daily basis. It is the “best of breed” mall owner. I also watch DDR (the weakest) and CBL (my local mall owner). I don't pay as much attention to (but still do follow from time to time) the homebuilders as well. SPG has already given a bollinger band sell signal, and tends to lead the $DJUSRE.
Did you guys look at the top 20 holdings of IYR and see how the individual stocks are doing?
If you don't mind my asking. How much are you down, percentage wise? It would help to figure out what the realistic time frame and market movement needed to recoup the draw down.
Looks like the high that day was 1527. Not sure I understand it, but I'll heed what you are saying.
the good news for those with bearish positions is the next ritual timing sequence comes in @ 4/4/2010 which is a Sunday, so the trading day immediately before/after 4/4 would provide an opportunity for a reversal. So either 4/1 or 4/5.
the origin of this sequence is the 3/24/2000 $SPX ATH