That whole volume business — I got so burnt on that, can't recall the ETF, but it was the biggest volume ever. Day after day after day. A month later, what had looked like tremendous volume at the time was maybe 20% of what the volume had built up to. And it was still climbing. I was soooo early on that one.
TNA is now a WAIT (wait for a signal). The sell was yesterday at $55.61. TNA closed today at $54.52, down 2% since the sale. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure).
TZA is now a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04, yesterday. TZA closed today at $7.17, up 1.85% since the buy. The candlestick today was a White Spinning Top (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning: Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14 Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05 Buy at $7.04, now up 1.85%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring: Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43 Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs: Wait: UWM (2x), TNA (3x), SPY, DRV (-3x) Hold: IWM(1x), RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x) BUY-IF: QQQQ (Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern, not very reliable) Confirmed Sell: DIA
don't forget about the $VIX weekly setup, this week was also a lower close than open, which makes it 7 consecutive lower closes than opens, the most since the economic cracks started appearing during the week of 8/13/2007
this setup is as juicy as they come, the last time I saw a setup on the weekly like this one was a number of bank stocks last march before they went parabolic http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44650…
those with eagle eye's will also notice the $VIX closed the week @ 17.77
for those with eagle eye's noticed that the $SPX close was below it's opening
this is the 3rd consecutive lower close than open, I spoke a couple days back that if the $SPX would get 3 consecutive lower closes than opens it would indicate we would be on our way to the 1078 de-leverage pt.
the orange VST containment is @ 1166.50 and look where the operators closed the $SPX @ 1166.59
Frequency of more than 3 consecutive lower closes than opens, in the last 111 trading days : 1 (terminated on 10/28/09) in the last 265 trading days : 4
TZA opened down 1.1%. Gap was filled. TZA was up 1.4% at the high, and closed up 0.1%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA. After eight days, this trade is down 2.3%, and owns TZA over night.
Volume for TZA was fairly high overall, and the 2nd highest volume for an up day in 35 days. Good for TZA.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 6% two days in a row but closed down 0.9% today with TZA up 0.1%. Very mild divergence.
TZA has now been up 3 days in a row. Good for TZA.
The low for TZA yesterday was $6.70, the lowest TZA price ever. The low today was $6.94, 3.4% above that low. Good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty four trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 for twenty two days and finally broke above 50 yesterday and added 2 points today. Indicating the end of weakness for TZA. Really good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over upwards two days ago and is moving up. This last happened 2 months ago. Rather fantastic for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed at the Top Bollinger Band. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX will be falling. The last time $RVX closed above the Top Bollinger Band (like what happened yesterday), $RUT fell for 10 days. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The doji candle for $RUT is in the congestion area. The top Bollinger band is falling, and $RUT seems to be in a mature topping formation. MACD has crossed down. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle is far below the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band is falling. Looks like a confirming that the topping process is completing. Good for TZA.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close (1 cent) – very good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $303 million flowing out of the market on a slightly up day. Generally good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
That whole volume business — I got so burnt on that, can't recall the ETF, but it was the biggest volume ever. Day after day after day. A month later, what had looked like tremendous volume at the time was maybe 20% of what the volume had built up to. And it was still climbing. I was soooo early on that one.
Daneric has posted an IYR weekly chart. He basically has the same conclusion I do: short real estate, now!
I may join you in DRV, but I'm going to wait for AB to at least issue a BUY-IF.
After looking over DRV again, I'm still convinced it's the right play.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
I stared at the candlesticks of IWM and UWM — there is a subtle difference, but not much. One is a hold, one is a wait.
I see why they pick one over the other — I just don't know if they are right to do what they do. I guess it works for them.
Interestingly, American Bulls confirmed a sell of IYR, but not a buy of either SRS or DRV.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA is now a WAIT (wait for a signal). The sell was yesterday at $55.61. TNA closed today at $54.52, down 2% since the sale. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure).
TZA is now a HOLD. The buy price was $7.04, yesterday. TZA closed today at $7.17, up 1.85% since the buy. The candlestick today was a White Spinning Top (complete indecision between Bulls and Bears).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now up 1.85%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs:
Wait: UWM (2x), TNA (3x), SPY, DRV (-3x)
Hold: IWM(1x), RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
BUY-IF: QQQQ (Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern, not very reliable)
Confirmed Sell: DIA
Action for Monday: none
don't forget about the $VIX weekly setup, this week was also a lower close than open, which makes it 7 consecutive lower closes than opens, the most since the economic cracks started appearing during the week of 8/13/2007
this setup is as juicy as they come, the last time I saw a setup on the weekly like this one was a number of bank stocks last march before they went parabolic
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44650…
those with eagle eye's will also notice the $VIX closed the week @ 17.77
for those with eagle eye's noticed that the $SPX close was below it's opening
this is the 3rd consecutive lower close than open, I spoke a couple days back that if the $SPX would get 3 consecutive lower closes than opens it would indicate we would be on our way to the 1078 de-leverage pt.
Well there is going to be a *** by that as the $SPX did not close below it's VST containment pt. (orange)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44650…
the orange VST containment is @ 1166.50 and look where the operators closed the $SPX @ 1166.59
Frequency of more than 3 consecutive lower closes than opens,
in the last 111 trading days : 1 (terminated on 10/28/09)
in the last 265 trading days : 4
TZA opened down 1.1%. Gap was filled. TZA was up 1.4% at the high, and closed up 0.1%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA.
After eight days, this trade is down 2.3%, and owns TZA over night.
Volume for TZA was fairly high overall, and the 2nd highest volume for an up day in 35 days. Good for TZA.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 6% two days in a row but closed down 0.9% today with TZA up 0.1%. Very mild divergence.
TZA has now been up 3 days in a row. Good for TZA.
The low for TZA yesterday was $6.70, the lowest TZA price ever. The low today was $6.94, 3.4% above that low. Good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty four trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 for twenty two days and finally broke above 50 yesterday and added 2 points today. Indicating the end of weakness for TZA. Really good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over upwards two days ago and is moving up. This last happened 2 months ago. Rather fantastic for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed at the Top Bollinger Band. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX will be falling. The last time $RVX closed above the Top Bollinger Band (like what happened yesterday), $RUT fell for 10 days. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The doji candle for $RUT is in the congestion area. The top Bollinger band is falling, and $RUT seems to be in a mature topping formation. MACD has crossed down. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle is far below the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band is falling. Looks like a confirming that the topping process is completing. Good for TZA.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close (1 cent) – very good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $303 million flowing out of the market on a slightly up day. Generally good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks very good for TZA for Monday.