Don't know if I already sent this to you but it compares the 2007 top to today. Corey Rosenbloom truly is unbiased and he is a good analyst. Scroll down to the bottom of the page but all the articles on the page are relevant. http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
Looking at a two week chart of /NQ and /ES — there is nothing indicating any sort of turnaround. /NQ is up and to the right. /ES has a much more gradual slope, but it's still up and to the right.
Market is going up, and I think $RUT follows along.
I had some TNA after hours, but offered it for sale and someone grabbed it, so I'm back to cash again.
Katzo refers to the MACD action on $RUT as a “porpoise snout” (well, he was talking about some other symbol, but if you look at the MACD you'll know what I mean). According to Google, he's the only one who describes it this way. It means that a breakdown is coming, just “not yet”. We are in day 3 of “porpoise snout” — maybe time to roll over? Based on this completely untested indicator, $RUT is red tomorrow.
TNA has a low reliability SELL-IF (Sell if conditions are right tomorrow morning) signal. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Harami Pattern (low reliability trend reversal requiring confirmation).
TZA has a low reliability BUY-IF (Buy if conditions are right tomorrow morning) signal. The candlestick today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Harami Pattern (low reliability trend reversal requiring confirmation).
Look at dem apples! http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo Just below the zero line. Suppose we could have a slight bounce but looks like direction is now down from here at least until we get to a -70 or so reading.
TZA opened up 1.3%. Gap ($6.82 to $6.84) was not filled. TZA was up 3.2% at the high, and closed up 3.2%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA. Following AmericanBulls guidelines, this trade was in cash all day. After seven days, this trade is down 4.1%, and in cash.
Volume for TZA was roughly average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 6.0% with TZA up 3.2%. No divergence.
TZA has now been up 5 of the last 9 days — chop.
The low for TZA today was $6.84. The low yesterday was $6.79, the lowest TZA price since the invention of electricity. A little bit good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty two trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 38. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Three days ago was highest of the last 23 days, but a 4 point drop in these last three days stopped that definite up trend. Was up 5 points today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s white candle closed above the Bollinger mid-line (20 day MA). MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX will be rising. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The black candle for $RUT fell back to old candle highs & likely resistance. The top Bollinger band is still rising, and $RUT seems to be moving away from it. Looks like a pull back before another rally from here. MACD is getting ready to cross down (or sideways). Mixed picture for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle fell back into the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band seems to be flat. Looks like a return to the topping process. Good for TZA.
TZA had a lower high, higher low and higher close – mildly good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $1,518 million flowing out of the market on an down day. Generally good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TZA tomorrow. (Chart and candlestick trumps everything else)
Don't know if I already sent this to you but it compares the 2007 top to today. Corey Rosenbloom truly is unbiased and he is a good analyst. Scroll down to the bottom of the page but all the articles on the page are relevant.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
Looking at a two week chart of /NQ and /ES — there is nothing indicating any sort of turnaround. /NQ is up and to the right. /ES has a much more gradual slope, but it's still up and to the right.
Market is going up, and I think $RUT follows along.
I had some TNA after hours, but offered it for sale and someone grabbed it, so I'm back to cash again.
Katzo refers to the MACD action on $RUT as a “porpoise snout” (well, he was talking about some other symbol, but if you look at the MACD you'll know what I mean). According to Google, he's the only one who describes it this way. It means that a breakdown is coming, just “not yet”. We are in day 3 of “porpoise snout” — maybe time to roll over? Based on this completely untested indicator, $RUT is red tomorrow.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA has a low reliability SELL-IF (Sell if conditions are right tomorrow morning) signal. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Harami Pattern (low reliability trend reversal requiring confirmation).
TZA has a low reliability BUY-IF (Buy if conditions are right tomorrow morning) signal. The candlestick today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure). The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Harami Pattern (low reliability trend reversal requiring confirmation).
Summary of $RUT based ETFs:
Hold: IWM (1x)
SELL-IF: UWM (2x), TNA (3x) (Bearish Harami)
BUY-IF: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x) (Bullish Harami)
Action for tomorrow: Possibly sell TNA, possibly buy TZA
Look at dem apples! http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Just below the zero line. Suppose we could have a slight bounce but looks like direction is now down from here at least until we get to a -70 or so reading.
TZA opened up 1.3%. Gap ($6.82 to $6.84) was not filled. TZA was up 3.2% at the high, and closed up 3.2%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA.
Following AmericanBulls guidelines, this trade was in cash all day.
After seven days, this trade is down 4.1%, and in cash.
Volume for TZA was roughly average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 6.0% with TZA up 3.2%. No divergence.
TZA has now been up 5 of the last 9 days — chop.
The low for TZA today was $6.84. The low yesterday was $6.79, the lowest TZA price since the invention of electricity. A little bit good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty two trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 38. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Three days ago was highest of the last 23 days, but a 4 point drop in these last three days stopped that definite up trend. Was up 5 points today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s white candle closed above the Bollinger mid-line (20 day MA). MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX will be rising. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The black candle for $RUT fell back to old candle highs & likely resistance. The top Bollinger band is still rising, and $RUT seems to be moving away from it. Looks like a pull back before another rally from here. MACD is getting ready to cross down (or sideways). Mixed picture for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle fell back into the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band seems to be flat. Looks like a return to the topping process. Good for TZA.
TZA had a lower high, higher low and higher close – mildly good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $1,518 million flowing out of the market on an down day. Generally good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TZA tomorrow. (Chart and candlestick trumps everything else)
My basic question is: let's say we are at 1225 by May and i think we will be at 1100 by November……………what puts would you buy in may and how far out?
Thanks Red
Carl at day’s end:
1st 1161-1175 estimate today for /ES (14 points)
2nd 1156-1175 estimate today for /ES (19 points)
3rd 1161.25-1175 estimate today for /ES (13.75 points)
1161 -1168.75 actual today (7.75 points)
Nailed the low twice.
Trades:
In /ES at 1162.75 yesterday, sold today at 1166.50 (gain of 3.75 points)
Grade B (made some money)
surprise surprise!
Not today. 🙂