on the daily containment pts. for the $SPX I usually allow 2 points slippage and yesterday $SPX came about 3 pts. shy so it's odd, but the high of the $SPX has the ritual mark 1174.72 = 11 : 11(7+4) : 9(7+2)
The IYR is an interesting animal, it's currently coiling on the back of a contianment pt. the last two times that has happened it's led to a break down. The weekly & monthly look incomplete so the operator will tell us on the way down if things are complete or incomplete.
While I appreciate your faith, Carl has made *much much much* more $$$ than me through his trades. Hard to go wrong with profitable trades. I still think we go down before we rocket up (over the course of the next week or so).
As previously stated, I expected many AB signals to non-confirm as we chop, chop, chop. We've set a lower low since Carl posted his update, but we haven't taken out the overnight low (as I understand, I don't have a /es futures feed).
I knew that the bearish case was still intact when I saw DRV play out an IHS today with a target of 8.76. We'll see if it gets there…
Want to point something out about the $NYMO. As of last night, it was above the 0 line (updates at 5:00PM everyday). If we have a small move down today (like down 30-40 points which seems probable), then I expect it to touch the 0 line and then bounce off of it and continue to zig zag for a few more days/week (like it did back near Jan 19th) and then plunge which will send the markets lower. If it zig zags, that could bring market prices slightly higher until it plunges through the 0 line. I figure based on Sundancers containment points that we would have to get to around 1185 or so on the SPX in order for the IYR to reach 53. Notice that on Jan 19th (the last top), the $NYMO had just busted through the 0 line. Alternatively, if we make a bigger move down today, perhaps it will bust through the 0 line today and when that happens, it typically plunges to oversold levels (bringing the market down with it). Then I would expect a more substantiated move down, at least in the short term. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Agreed. Carl sees downside as temporary, and upside as the general direction.
I still have my TNA from yesterday. I'm combining Carl's upside bias with AmericanBulls' TNA buy yesterday. As I understand it, AB does not sell the day after a buy signal.
Well, I sure do.
TNA is hanging around in the general vicinity of the pivot line ($56.71), which is my comfort zone, so I'm hanging in there. My trade is up at the moment, but that comes and goes.
Still with you on DRV @8.75
on the daily containment pts. for the $SPX I usually allow 2 points slippage and yesterday $SPX came about 3 pts. shy so it's odd, but the high of the $SPX has the ritual mark
1174.72 = 11 : 11(7+4) : 9(7+2)
The IYR is an interesting animal, it's currently coiling on the back of a contianment pt. the last two times that has happened it's led to a break down. The weekly & monthly look incomplete so the operator will tell us on the way down if things are complete or incomplete.
Maybe Carl had more money to begin with! And maybe he has inside info which you don't. But I think your charting/timing skills are excellent.
The overnight low for /ES was 1162.
Recent low was 1161.
Yesterday's low was 1159.
Thank you. If we manage to get 3 lower closes then, does it matter for the long run that we never made it to containment on SPX or IYR?
Strange how we haven't broken below the previous close on the SPX. It seems to like that 1166 number.
While I appreciate your faith, Carl has made *much much much* more $$$ than me through his trades. Hard to go wrong with profitable trades. I still think we go down before we rocket up (over the course of the next week or so).
you've heard me talking about high close (HC), we got that yesterday on the $SPX, then today the ritual gap down
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44598…
3 consecutive lower closes than opens on the $SPX and we're on our way to the de-leverage pt.
As previously stated, I expected many AB signals to non-confirm as we chop, chop, chop. We've set a lower low since Carl posted his update, but we haven't taken out the overnight low (as I understand, I don't have a /es futures feed).
I knew that the bearish case was still intact when I saw DRV play out an IHS today with a target of 8.76. We'll see if it gets there…
Want to point something out about the $NYMO. As of last night, it was above the 0 line (updates at 5:00PM everyday). If we have a small move down today (like down 30-40 points which seems probable), then I expect it to touch the 0 line and then bounce off of it and continue to zig zag for a few more days/week (like it did back near Jan 19th) and then plunge which will send the markets lower. If it zig zags, that could bring market prices slightly higher until it plunges through the 0 line. I figure based on Sundancers containment points that we would have to get to around 1185 or so on the SPX in order for the IYR to reach 53. Notice that on Jan 19th (the last top), the $NYMO had just busted through the 0 line. Alternatively, if we make a bigger move down today, perhaps it will bust through the 0 line today and when that happens, it typically plunges to oversold levels (bringing the market down with it). Then I would expect a more substantiated move down, at least in the short term.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Agreed. Carl sees downside as temporary, and upside as the general direction.
I still have my TNA from yesterday. I'm combining Carl's upside bias with AmericanBulls' TNA buy yesterday. As I understand it, AB does not sell the day after a buy signal.
Well, I sure do.
TNA is hanging around in the general vicinity of the pivot line ($56.71), which is my comfort zone, so I'm hanging in there. My trade is up at the moment, but that comes and goes.