In the end Monica, I finally come to realize that technicals don't really work too well. If they followed logic, the market would be at 3000-4000 on the dow now.
But, insanity seems too be how the market is driven, not logic… so, I'll just wait for panic to replace insanity, as waiting for logic too happen might put me in my grave first.
Thanks Red – the black candle indeed makes it look like we are in for a down day tomorrow but I see a case of a black candle on around Nov 14 in your chart where we continued higher after a move down the next day. Everything else looked about the same then. So, it's possible we continue to chop for a while (hope not). Anyway, news doesn't matter as we have seen. My guess is the number will be good just to really surprise everyone but there may be no market reaction.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA. After two days, this trade is up 7.5%.
Volume today for TNA was a bit higher than normal for these past 12 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 1.5% higher with TNA up 2.4%. A bit of a divergence (they should go different directions) and possibly bad for TNA.
TNA has been up 13 of the past 15 days.
The high for TNA today was $48.20, the highest TNA since Oct 21st. January 11 had a high of $48.15. Just eyeballing the chart at a high level, Jan 11th & today seem rather like a double top.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 seven trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 68. Indicating continued strength for TNA.
However, TNA today closed 7% higher than that day with the peak Ultimate Oscillator value. A higher close with a lower Ultimate Oscillator value might be seen as negative divergence indicating that TNA is due to fall.
Also, TNA was up 2.4% today, but the Ultimate Oscillator dropped from 68.8 to 68.3 – a bit of a divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s green candle closed farther from the lower band and the lower Bollinger band dropped, — indicating that $RVX could rise tomorrow, bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: $RUT rose to near the upper Bollinger Band, but that upper band rose today, indicating that $RUT could rise again tomorrow, favoring TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle was inside yesterdays candle, quite a contrast from prior days rising candles. This is a reflection of the divergence between $RVX & $RUT.
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to move above an area of congestion and might continue rising tomorrow. The divergences are bothersome and might be warning of a reversal tomorrow.
Did you see Dodd's and Corker's latest proposal to put the Consumer Financial Protection Agency in the hands of the Federal Reserve? One word – Oxymoron
Well girl… I don't know if any sell off will hold, but I think we will pull back some tomorrow. You know they could release really bad ADP numbers tomorrow, but fudge some other numbers on Thursday and Friday, which could stop any serious sell off from occurring.
I believe they are waiting for something to happen first, before they dump the market. It could be Obama's healthcare bill, or it could the $10 Billion Dollar Bill that would extend unemployment benefits so more.
There is another $145 Billion Dollar Bill that includes prolonging unemployment insurance until the end of the year. The vote is expected on that bill by this Friday.
Any or all of those could be the reason they won't let the market sell off yet. Very frustrating, as you have to be crazy to go long from these levels, and even more insane to think they will let you make some money on any down trend.
Tough to be a swing trader in this market. Too much manipulation. Technicals don't work any more, as every down move gets bought back up… for no friggin reason!
I got one small short position right now, and no longs. When the move down does start, I'll probably miss it anyone… LOL
Sundancer hard to read your resistent tgt – what is it on IYR?
snapshot of the IYR (real estate)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44018…
In the end Monica, I finally come to realize that technicals don't really work too well. If they followed logic, the market would be at 3000-4000 on the dow now.
But, insanity seems too be how the market is driven, not logic… so, I'll just wait for panic to replace insanity, as waiting for logic too happen might put me in my grave first.
Fundamentals don't matter in the short term.
Thanks Red – the black candle indeed makes it look like we are in for a down day tomorrow but I see a case of a black candle on around Nov 14 in your chart where we continued higher after a move down the next day. Everything else looked about the same then. So, it's possible we continue to chop for a while (hope not). Anyway, news doesn't matter as we have seen. My guess is the number will be good just to really surprise everyone but there may be no market reaction.
Thanks Red 🙂
Almost as dumb as letting the Federal Reserve invetagate Goldman Sach. LOL!
P.S. Refresh your page if you'd like a like Bad Company to cheer you up.
TNA gapped up 1.2% and closed up 2.4%.
We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA.
After two days, this trade is up 7.5%.
Volume today for TNA was a bit higher than normal for these past 12 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 1.5% higher with TNA up 2.4%. A bit of a divergence (they should go different directions) and possibly bad for TNA.
TNA has been up 13 of the past 15 days.
The high for TNA today was $48.20, the highest TNA since Oct 21st.
January 11 had a high of $48.15. Just eyeballing the chart at a high level, Jan 11th & today seem rather like a double top.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 seven trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 68. Indicating continued strength for TNA.
However, TNA today closed 7% higher than that day with the peak Ultimate Oscillator value. A higher close with a lower Ultimate Oscillator value might be seen as negative divergence indicating that TNA is due to fall.
Also, TNA was up 2.4% today, but the Ultimate Oscillator dropped from 68.8 to 68.3 – a bit of a divergence.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s green candle closed farther from the lower band and the lower Bollinger band dropped, — indicating that $RVX could rise tomorrow, bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: $RUT rose to near the upper Bollinger Band, but that upper band rose today, indicating that $RUT could rise again tomorrow, favoring TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle was inside yesterdays candle, quite a contrast from prior days rising candles. This is a reflection of the divergence between $RVX & $RUT.
http://www.americanbulls.com had TNA as a BUY on Feb 9th, and hold since then. TNA remains a hold for tomorrow.
Overall, it looks like TNA continues to move above an area of congestion and might continue rising tomorrow. The divergences are bothersome and might be warning of a reversal tomorrow.
Did you see Dodd's and Corker's latest proposal to put the Consumer Financial Protection Agency in the hands of the Federal Reserve? One word – Oxymoron
Well girl… I don't know if any sell off will hold, but I think we will pull back some tomorrow. You know they could release really bad ADP numbers tomorrow, but fudge some other numbers on Thursday and Friday, which could stop any serious sell off from occurring.
I believe they are waiting for something to happen first, before they dump the market. It could be Obama's healthcare bill, or it could the $10 Billion Dollar Bill that would extend unemployment benefits so more.
There is another $145 Billion Dollar Bill that includes prolonging unemployment insurance until the end of the year. The vote is expected on that bill by this Friday.
Any or all of those could be the reason they won't let the market sell off yet. Very frustrating, as you have to be crazy to go long from these levels, and even more insane to think they will let you make some money on any down trend.
Tough to be a swing trader in this market. Too much manipulation. Technicals don't work any more, as every down move gets bought back up… for no friggin reason!
I got one small short position right now, and no longs. When the move down does start, I'll probably miss it anyone… LOL