Patience is the hardest thing in trading. When you make a trade and see it go against you the next day you have a tendency to panic and sell out. These are the times that you have to go back and re-look at why you made the trade in the first place and ask yourself if you still feel that the position will be profitable in the time frame you planned for.
Catching the exact top or bottom is nearly impossible for the sheep but catching one within the last 5-10% move is possible. I still believe the top is very near now, if not already here. There is upside resistance in the 1610 SPX zone simply based off the DOW hitting 15,000 (and guessing where the SPX will be at when and if that happens?).
That 15,000 level is a magnet for the DOW and could be the target. The problem is that they rarely hit an important level like that and reverse. They either (usually) fall short of an important level or pierce through it a little. So which will it be? I don’t know but I’m mentally ready to hold my short position either way.
As you know I posted previously that it’s only a small position. I’m (of course) wait for the coming May sell off before going “all in”. I knew when taking this small position that it was a gamble as I was expecting a choppy move down into the end of April. The past move down in 2007 was 133 SPX points but I’m only expecting 80-100 points this time around.
Remember, if they are to trick the most people they need to sell off into the end of this month to lure in more bears that will be chanting the old “Sell in May and go away” saying. When we get closer to the end of this month things will look bearish. It’s around then when they will ripe it back up the first 3 weeks of May and top around the 22nd.
So the lesson learned here is to have patience and stick to your plan. Assuming you got in short at a good price things can still work out and you can make a profit. I’m just glad I did a put spread this go around as that will make it easier to make that profit should the market take its’ sweet time chopping it’s way down.
Yeah, was a bit concerned with chop, that’s why I bought so far out. Hearing a lot of people with a 16-1650 target=scary. Makes me thing I should sell if there’s any immediate dip in the morning. Do you have a target? I’d assume it was hit since you went short?
Yeah, that’s the problem with doing straight puts. You need to be very accurate on the entry and the move down needs to happen right afterwards. Sadly I don’t see a quick move down but a choppy one, which will cause time decay on your puts, and it can get worse if they continue up to 1600-1610 for a few more days before dropping.
But we won’t know until tomorrow I guess? As for what stage we are in? That’s a tough one, but I’d hope stage 5 but I’m think stage 4.
That earnings increase makes me think we’re in stage 3. I hope my shorts don’t get smacked. I did get them 1 cent off of today’s close on the plus side
Interesting… and probably accurate. The question is… what stage are we really in? After this coming May sell off I do see one more rally into spring of 2014, but I think that will end the bull market.
Damn you market, I waited all this time to short you!
Patience is the hardest thing in trading. When you make a trade and see it go against you the next day you have a tendency to panic and sell out. These are the times that you have to go back and re-look at why you made the trade in the first place and ask yourself if you still feel that the position will be profitable in the time frame you planned for.
Catching the exact top or bottom is nearly impossible for the sheep but catching one within the last 5-10% move is possible. I still believe the top is very near now, if not already here. There is upside resistance in the 1610 SPX zone simply based off the DOW hitting 15,000 (and guessing where the SPX will be at when and if that happens?).
That 15,000 level is a magnet for the DOW and could be the target. The problem is that they rarely hit an important level like that and reverse. They either (usually) fall short of an important level or pierce through it a little. So which will it be? I don’t know but I’m mentally ready to hold my short position either way.
As you know I posted previously that it’s only a small position. I’m (of course) wait for the coming May sell off before going “all in”. I knew when taking this small position that it was a gamble as I was expecting a choppy move down into the end of April. The past move down in 2007 was 133 SPX points but I’m only expecting 80-100 points this time around.
Remember, if they are to trick the most people they need to sell off into the end of this month to lure in more bears that will be chanting the old “Sell in May and go away” saying. When we get closer to the end of this month things will look bearish. It’s around then when they will ripe it back up the first 3 weeks of May and top around the 22nd.
So the lesson learned here is to have patience and stick to your plan. Assuming you got in short at a good price things can still work out and you can make a profit. I’m just glad I did a put spread this go around as that will make it easier to make that profit should the market take its’ sweet time chopping it’s way down.
SPX Update… http://screencast.com/t/RBq4QhMZu
APPLE Resistance levels and Buy signal: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/apple-resistance-levels-and-buy-signal.html
I have the 156/153 put spread Peter, so all I’m looking for is 153 spy before it expires by April 26th.
S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_11.html
Yeah, was a bit concerned with chop, that’s why I bought so far out. Hearing a lot of people with a 16-1650 target=scary. Makes me thing I should sell if there’s any immediate dip in the morning. Do you have a target? I’d assume it was hit since you went short?
Yeah, that’s the problem with doing straight puts. You need to be very accurate on the entry and the move down needs to happen right afterwards. Sadly I don’t see a quick move down but a choppy one, which will cause time decay on your puts, and it can get worse if they continue up to 1600-1610 for a few more days before dropping.
But we won’t know until tomorrow I guess? As for what stage we are in? That’s a tough one, but I’d hope stage 5 but I’m think stage 4.
That earnings increase makes me think we’re in stage 3. I hope my shorts don’t get smacked. I did get them 1 cent off of today’s close on the plus side
Interesting… and probably accurate. The question is… what stage are we really in? After this coming May sell off I do see one more rally into spring of 2014, but I think that will end the bull market.