Don’t know at this point? We might continue up tomorrow to 1600 or even 1610? It’s completely everything I discussed in the post here, as it put in a new high just like it did in 2007. Back then it only went 3 points over the old 2000 high of 1552 and then it dropped 133 points (from that new high at 1555) before resuming the move back up to make the final new high at 1576 spx.
This time we have gone 13 points higher with our 1589 high today, which I was expecting it to be more then 3 points higher but I’m a little surprised it went up this much. I guess they had too many bears to squeeze this go around, which took it much higher then usual.
The key here is how the market acts tomorrow. If it opens flat and briefly makes a slightly higher high and rolls back down and slowly drops all day, then we could have seen the high. I don’t want to see it go up hard again or go down fast. The best thing for the bears would be a slow move down that doesn’t panic the bulls to get out or the bears to get in.
Let them all think it’s just a dip before going higher again so the bears will now join the bulls and get long on that dip. Then rally back up a little to fall short of the high and back down again (slowly) to chop it up confusing both sides.
Today’s candle pattern (an ‘all up day’) is a solid white bullish candle that puts the odds of a higher high tomorrow of around 90% (from past history of similar candle patterns). That doesn’t mean it’s got to go up huge, as even .01 cents is still a higher high.
And it doesn’t mean it’s got to hold as it could go up just a few cents and then rollover the rest of the day. However, if it trades sideways all day then that would be the wave 4 down most likely, (which also makes a ‘bull flag’) leaving a 5th wave up to 1600-1610 still possible.
What we bears want to see is a slow move down in the price level while the overbought charts rollover and start going down. If those charts start going down but the price level chops sideways then there is likely one more move back up yet to come.
does the dip at 3 pm look like a 4 and then a 5 into the close? If that is the case, the retails might just see the rug being pulled out from under tomorrow? Besides, EUR did nothing with this equity ramp today..kind of odd, the only one is AUD which has been rising since last night..
If it closes at the high today then we should see one more move up after a brief dip. This looks like some kind of wave 3 from the strength of the move. So possibly a small wave 4 down and a final short wave 5 up? If so then it could go up a little more to maybe 1600 spx I guess? (My thoughts are that today is the top though).
But this could also be some type of C wave up, which means it ends today or at the open tomorrow. I got short around 1581 as I didn’t know how high it was going to go (still don’t I guess… won’t know till it’s finished. LOL). But I’m happy with the timing of it as I’ll just ride it down to 1500 by the end of the month if things go as planned.
It’s likely to be choppy though, so your straight puts might not make you as much as you think because of the time decay and choppy ride. But you should still do ok on it. I choose to do a put spread to filter out the time decay on this move, but I’ll be doing straight puts for the May move down (of course) as that one should be much bigger.
I’m taking a small short here gang. The market could go a little higher but we are close to the top I believe. Remember, this move down could be choppy and not more then 80 to 100 points over the next 3 weeks.
it is no doubt we are in a bull market, check out this awesome graphic
as it exposes where we are in the bull market right now http://sentiment-trader.blogspot.com/2013/04/bull-market-stages-bull-market-stages.html
I did not know but a bull market has 6 special stages, and where we are right now might surprise you.
thanks for the reply. btw, tony has updated his wave count, extremely bullish now…who wouldn’t be after this continuous up move….
Don’t know at this point? We might continue up tomorrow to 1600 or even 1610? It’s completely everything I discussed in the post here, as it put in a new high just like it did in 2007. Back then it only went 3 points over the old 2000 high of 1552 and then it dropped 133 points (from that new high at 1555) before resuming the move back up to make the final new high at 1576 spx.
This time we have gone 13 points higher with our 1589 high today, which I was expecting it to be more then 3 points higher but I’m a little surprised it went up this much. I guess they had too many bears to squeeze this go around, which took it much higher then usual.
The key here is how the market acts tomorrow. If it opens flat and briefly makes a slightly higher high and rolls back down and slowly drops all day, then we could have seen the high. I don’t want to see it go up hard again or go down fast. The best thing for the bears would be a slow move down that doesn’t panic the bulls to get out or the bears to get in.
Let them all think it’s just a dip before going higher again so the bears will now join the bulls and get long on that dip. Then rally back up a little to fall short of the high and back down again (slowly) to chop it up confusing both sides.
Today’s candle pattern (an ‘all up day’) is a solid white bullish candle that puts the odds of a higher high tomorrow of around 90% (from past history of similar candle patterns). That doesn’t mean it’s got to go up huge, as even .01 cents is still a higher high.
And it doesn’t mean it’s got to hold as it could go up just a few cents and then rollover the rest of the day. However, if it trades sideways all day then that would be the wave 4 down most likely, (which also makes a ‘bull flag’) leaving a 5th wave up to 1600-1610 still possible.
What we bears want to see is a slow move down in the price level while the overbought charts rollover and start going down. If those charts start going down but the price level chops sideways then there is likely one more move back up yet to come.
does the dip at 3 pm look like a 4 and then a 5 into the close? If that is the case, the retails might just see the rug being pulled out from under tomorrow? Besides, EUR did nothing with this equity ramp today..kind of odd, the only one is AUD which has been rising since last night..
I was hoping for a triple lol. I [aid .32
If it closes at the high today then we should see one more move up after a brief dip. This looks like some kind of wave 3 from the strength of the move. So possibly a small wave 4 down and a final short wave 5 up? If so then it could go up a little more to maybe 1600 spx I guess? (My thoughts are that today is the top though).
But this could also be some type of C wave up, which means it ends today or at the open tomorrow. I got short around 1581 as I didn’t know how high it was going to go (still don’t I guess… won’t know till it’s finished. LOL). But I’m happy with the timing of it as I’ll just ride it down to 1500 by the end of the month if things go as planned.
It’s likely to be choppy though, so your straight puts might not make you as much as you think because of the time decay and choppy ride. But you should still do ok on it. I choose to do a put spread to filter out the time decay on this move, but I’ll be doing straight puts for the May move down (of course) as that one should be much bigger.
just got short here at 147 may puts. 100 points would work for me
GOOGLE Support and Resistance levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/google-support-and-resistance-levels.html
I’m taking a small short here gang. The market could go a little higher but we are close to the top I believe. Remember, this move down could be choppy and not more then 80 to 100 points over the next 3 weeks.
ES Charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/es-chart-update_9242.html