Ok gang, it looks like we are dipping down a little here in the morning which tells me that we’ll likely see the high happen tomorrow morning around the open. We could even break the 1576.09 high by 3-4 points, which would be the ideal situation for us bears to get short at. So I’m waiting until tomorrow to look for that short as today seems to be a day that they will use to kind of reset the short term overbought charts to allow for one more move up tomorrow.
Hmmm… the afterhours high on the SPY at 4:59pm is 156.66! We could have put in the high today or tomorrow at the open? I really don’t see a 3 wave move up since the low on Friday as it looks more like one long wave up… an A wave inside a 2 wave I’m guessing.
But possibly the choppy sideways move this morning was the B wave down and the move into the close was the C wave up? So we need to be prepared to short tomorrow morning if this thing looks tired and ready to rollover as a wave 3 down should be next, and it’s a 60-70 point move.
It’s going to be a tough call as we could also start a B wave down tomorrow and back up Wednesday for the C wave up to complete the whole wave 2 up. It’s really a guessing game here but if that 156.66 afterhours high remains the high going into tomorrow then I’m likely going to take a gamble and short tomorrow… especially if we go up higher at the open.
This A wave up (inside a wave 2 up) looks like it continued today as I really am not sure if we had a B down yet? This means we could see the B down tomorrow, which might only last half the day. Then the C up could start into the close Tuesday and carry into Wednesday to end the wave 2 up.
Then (possibly in the afternoon session) I expect to see a little selling late Wednesday to start the wave 3 down (which should be 60-70 points). You also have the initial claims out on Thursday which should make the traders want to sell late Wednesday in fear of another bad report like last weeks’ job’s report.
It’s all in the charts and the wave counts of course but they need to blame something on the move down coming so it should be either that or the PPI and Core PPI on Friday. Doesn’t matter the reason the selling is already planned.
I will be taking a short position should this play out like I expect it to. A 60-70 point down move is well worth the risk in my opinion. I could have went long earlier today but the upside is limited to only around 20 points from the low range this morning so it wasn’t worth the risk to me.
Choppy all day today with a possible move up into the close. Tuesday we should see our rally that carry’s over into Wednesday for a final peak just shy of the recent 1573 spx high. It could stretch out until Thursday morning I guess but I’m thinking it puts in the high on Wednesday.
What I think we have here is a 3 wave move down (possibly 5 wave… on the 60 minute chart) from the 1573 high to the 1539 low, which makes up the first smaller wave 1 down. Then toward the end of the day on Friday we appear to have started the first A wave up inside the smaller wave 2 up.
Today we should see the continuation of the A wave up and/or start the B wave down. Then the C wave up could be a nice solid white candle on the daily chart, which should squeeze any bears getting short right now. If that happens on “Turn around Tuesday” then it could conclude on Wednesday at some point.
It depends on how high up it goes I guess for how early it ends on Wednesday. If it’s up quite a bit then it could end at the open on Wednesday. If this thing drags it’s feet then we could be delayed by one day on all of this forecast and see the big move up on Wednesday and the conclusion on Thursday.
One thing to remember is that old saying about “The low is usually put in on the Thursday or Friday the week before option expiration”. That saying is accurate a lot as the market makers don’t want to payout to option holders so they manipulate the market the opposite direction the week of expiration every month (on the monthly options mainly, not the weekly).
Now since I’m thinking that we are heavily overloaded on the call side of things right now it’s looking more and more like the top will happen on either Wednesday or Thursday, which is means the market makers will do the opposite this time and put in the high prior to option expiration next Friday.
GOLD Resistance levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/gold-resistance-levels.html
Ok gang, it looks like we are dipping down a little here in the morning which tells me that we’ll likely see the high happen tomorrow morning around the open. We could even break the 1576.09 high by 3-4 points, which would be the ideal situation for us bears to get short at. So I’m waiting until tomorrow to look for that short as today seems to be a day that they will use to kind of reset the short term overbought charts to allow for one more move up tomorrow.
Hmmm… the afterhours high on the SPY at 4:59pm is 156.66! We could have put in the high today or tomorrow at the open? I really don’t see a 3 wave move up since the low on Friday as it looks more like one long wave up… an A wave inside a 2 wave I’m guessing.
But possibly the choppy sideways move this morning was the B wave down and the move into the close was the C wave up? So we need to be prepared to short tomorrow morning if this thing looks tired and ready to rollover as a wave 3 down should be next, and it’s a 60-70 point move.
It’s going to be a tough call as we could also start a B wave down tomorrow and back up Wednesday for the C wave up to complete the whole wave 2 up. It’s really a guessing game here but if that 156.66 afterhours high remains the high going into tomorrow then I’m likely going to take a gamble and short tomorrow… especially if we go up higher at the open.
This A wave up (inside a wave 2 up) looks like it continued today as I really am not sure if we had a B down yet? This means we could see the B down tomorrow, which might only last half the day. Then the C up could start into the close Tuesday and carry into Wednesday to end the wave 2 up.
Then (possibly in the afternoon session) I expect to see a little selling late Wednesday to start the wave 3 down (which should be 60-70 points). You also have the initial claims out on Thursday which should make the traders want to sell late Wednesday in fear of another bad report like last weeks’ job’s report.
It’s all in the charts and the wave counts of course but they need to blame something on the move down coming so it should be either that or the PPI and Core PPI on Friday. Doesn’t matter the reason the selling is already planned.
I will be taking a short position should this play out like I expect it to. A 60-70 point down move is well worth the risk in my opinion. I could have went long earlier today but the upside is limited to only around 20 points from the low range this morning so it wasn’t worth the risk to me.
Google Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/google-chart-analysis.html
Good morning gang. Here’s what I’m expecting…
Choppy all day today with a possible move up into the close. Tuesday we should see our rally that carry’s over into Wednesday for a final peak just shy of the recent 1573 spx high. It could stretch out until Thursday morning I guess but I’m thinking it puts in the high on Wednesday.
What I think we have here is a 3 wave move down (possibly 5 wave… on the 60 minute chart) from the 1573 high to the 1539 low, which makes up the first smaller wave 1 down. Then toward the end of the day on Friday we appear to have started the first A wave up inside the smaller wave 2 up.
Today we should see the continuation of the A wave up and/or start the B wave down. Then the C wave up could be a nice solid white candle on the daily chart, which should squeeze any bears getting short right now. If that happens on “Turn around Tuesday” then it could conclude on Wednesday at some point.
It depends on how high up it goes I guess for how early it ends on Wednesday. If it’s up quite a bit then it could end at the open on Wednesday. If this thing drags it’s feet then we could be delayed by one day on all of this forecast and see the big move up on Wednesday and the conclusion on Thursday.
One thing to remember is that old saying about “The low is usually put in on the Thursday or Friday the week before option expiration”. That saying is accurate a lot as the market makers don’t want to payout to option holders so they manipulate the market the opposite direction the week of expiration every month (on the monthly options mainly, not the weekly).
Now since I’m thinking that we are heavily overloaded on the call side of things right now it’s looking more and more like the top will happen on either Wednesday or Thursday, which is means the market makers will do the opposite this time and put in the high prior to option expiration next Friday.
EURUSD Resistance levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/eurusd-resistance-levels.html
IWM Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/iwm-weekend-update.html
APPLE Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/04/apple-weekend-update.html
Nice catch Red !