if we get a monthly close above $SPX 1115.10, a setup will be in place for a multi-month reversal.
Since 1990 there has been 4 occurrences of this setup on the monthly, 3 have been successful and 1 has failed.
Dates of prior monthly setups: 10/2007: success; major top 08/2000: success; major top 06/1999: success; 3 month reversal 04/1997: failed; monthly close @ 801 propelled market higher to 1190 before a major reaction
it's a mess like the chart shows, the TA enthusiasts will see a H&S but we already know the market is going higher because of the 1127.38 gap.
today through friday will give us some clues about the long term timing, for a multi-month reversal we need a close above 1115.10 on friday. Now to pinpoint the week it starts we'll need a weekly close above 1144.98.
A close above 1144.98 this week seems highly unlikely, so then we wait for the close next friday.
I really don't know what to think at this point? The sell off yesterday didn't have any real volume behind it. That means the institutions aren't selling yet. Why? Are they waiting for a higher price?
Hi, Can you expand on the 'setup'? I see 1115.10 is dec closing, but don't know what pattern i'm looking for.
Thanks from a newbie.
Carl went long one unit /ES at 1095.50
yes, because of setups on larger time frames
***IF***
if we get a monthly close above $SPX 1115.10, a setup will be in place for a multi-month reversal.
Since 1990 there has been 4 occurrences of this setup on the monthly, 3 have been successful and 1 has failed.
Dates of prior monthly setups:
10/2007: success; major top
08/2000: success; major top
06/1999: success; 3 month reversal
04/1997: failed; monthly close @ 801 propelled market higher to 1190 before a major reaction
so you think the S&P will go higher toward 1127.38 BEFORE 1087-1090 area is breeched to the downside?
it's a mess like the chart shows, the TA enthusiasts will see a H&S but we already know the market is going higher because of the 1127.38 gap.
today through friday will give us some clues about the long term timing, for a multi-month reversal we need a close above 1115.10 on friday. Now to pinpoint the week it starts we'll need a weekly close above 1144.98.
A close above 1144.98 this week seems highly unlikely, so then we wait for the close next friday.
I really don't know what to think at this point? The sell off yesterday didn't have any real volume behind it. That means the institutions aren't selling yet. Why? Are they waiting for a higher price?
10:09 est
spy 60 min
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43843…
for those looking for a big reversal in march, the action this week so far isn't indicating that
SPX 3 min gaps from past two days
1109.52
1107.03
From Carl just now:
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1092-1105. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.
estimate for today: 1092-1105
estimate for yesterday: 1100-1112
currently: 1097
low last night: 1092.50
As long as we don't rest the high, I think we will sell off next week. But for now, you're right… no man's land.