we currently have 2 consecutive gap downs on the SPY so a 3rd in a row tomorrow would be too much of a tell for the coming gap on tuesday because the SPY rarely ever gaps down 4 straight days
I hear ya'! I have found that you can't really trade on EW and it was a very expensive lesson. It was Elliot Wave my money goodbye. I think it does work on big picture time frames but you can't make money with it to trade. With that said I think we crap out before 1090 SPX and anything above that would surprise me and make me somewhat bullish. Good Luck!
I visited Serge's site and posted a comment. He remembered me, and said that I had been there before (although I forgot). Nice short video he did… I hope he's right about 102-103 next week.
hey red – thanks for sticking with us! i got down to the very end…margin call all week. todays upward motion brought me out of it and in addition, my csco call advanced for a nice little gain which enabled me to buy the fcx 70 put for tomorrow. if things work tomorrow, i'll have a great rebirth of enthusiasm for, well, EVERYTHING! heh love the charts and graphics, and i'm finding the commentary very useful too; i am glad to be able to read it. i am also short bac (and a little in the money!), so i have great hopes for the next wave down. now, when to sell… what is your post-thursday forcast for next week?
Sold my SPG calls (mostly broke even). In TZA calls.
$VIX closed above 24, by a hair. I think the $VIX goes back up to flirt with the 200 MA tomorrow, and closes the week there. This would provide minimal direction for market participants, and let their options die a slow death over the long weekend (markets are closed Monday for Presidents day).
Thanks Crowe… I try to entertain people by letting them know my trading account is now smaller then their's… LOL
a gap down will mean they'll close the SPY @ 107.15 for the week and a gap up means they'll close the SPY @ 109.68
all this dancing for the last 5 months is because of the crash gap created back on the first week of oct. 2008
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43490…
we currently have 2 consecutive gap downs on the SPY so a 3rd in a row tomorrow would be too much of a tell for the coming gap on tuesday because the SPY rarely ever gaps down 4 straight days
I hear ya'!
I have found that you can't really trade on EW and it was a very expensive lesson. It was Elliot Wave my money goodbye. I think it does work on big picture time frames but you can't make money with it to trade.
With that said I think we crap out before 1090 SPX and anything above that would surprise me and make me somewhat bullish.
Good Luck!
Just another Bear frattin', if you know what I mean.
Thanks Monica…
I visited Serge's site and posted a comment. He remembered me, and said that I had been there before (although I forgot). Nice short video he did… I hope he's right about 102-103 next week.
Awesome work as usual Red. Appreciate you doing so much work for us.
That's interesting. The question is which way?
He was right about the breakout, but wrong about the range. Pretty impressive, still.
hey red – thanks for sticking with us! i got down to the very end…margin call all week. todays upward motion brought me out of it and in addition, my csco call advanced for a nice
little gain which enabled me to buy the fcx 70 put for tomorrow. if things work tomorrow, i'll have a great rebirth of
enthusiasm for, well, EVERYTHING! heh love the charts and graphics, and i'm finding the commentary very useful too; i am
glad to be able to read it.
i am also short bac (and a little in the money!), so i have great hopes for the next wave down. now, when to sell…
what is your post-thursday forcast for next week?
Sold my SPG calls (mostly broke even). In TZA calls.
$VIX closed above 24, by a hair. I think the $VIX goes back up to flirt with the 200 MA tomorrow, and closes the week there. This would provide minimal direction for market participants, and let their options die a slow death over the long weekend (markets are closed Monday for Presidents day).