I do agree about the warning signs regarding lower lows and lower highs. However, compared to the other indexes, $RUT looks pretty good! $RVX has not even touched its 200 day moving average.
I am expecting the triangle to resolve tomorrow. I have no idea which way it resolves, but the $VIX suggests that equities could go up. I did say that yesterday, too. I was at least half-right.
If the RSI on the VIX closes tomorrow at 50 or so, I think that trendline I have (badly) drawn gets broken. What does that mean? It means no P3 before opex. In my opinion, of course.
Red, I am sorry to say that on Wall Street, white is black and black is white. Market is not going down because crooks are going to squeeze shorts, then same crooks squeeze bulls by pulling markets down. This is a game only a few will win. Tonight, Futures are going up the moment markets closed, you know how it works. They ramp futures huge, shorts pile on covering markets move up, bulls and fund managers jump-in fearing market is taking off. Market moves up another leg. This game is going on for several months, and nothing will stop this game, except a 3 of 3, if there is one to believe. Good luck…
So much work went into this post Red. I truly appreciate it as I don't have the time to do the in depth analysis and this really helps me learn. Hopefully the answer really is in the charts. Tomorrow looks at least like it is going to open higher and I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens next.
I can't help but wonder if the start of the drop to 1020 could wait until end of day Friday. That would line up with the New Moon Trade (new moon is Sunday), when I usually load up on TZA.
See VIX chart in other comment.
And also:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
I do agree about the warning signs regarding lower lows and lower highs. However, compared to the other indexes, $RUT looks pretty good! $RVX has not even touched its 200 day moving average.
I am expecting the triangle to resolve tomorrow. I have no idea which way it resolves, but the $VIX suggests that equities could go up. I did say that yesterday, too. I was at least half-right.
The VIX still looks bearish to me. At least for tomorrow. Will it bounce? If it is going to do it, it has to do it soon. Really soon.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
If the RSI on the VIX closes tomorrow at 50 or so, I think that trendline I have (badly) drawn gets broken. What does that mean? It means no P3 before opex. In my opinion, of course.
GREAT SITE AND GOO INPUT. I am learning quite a bit from your blog and look forward to trading the same wave with you!!
I'll have tonight's post up hopefully by 10pm est., with lot's of charts… and then you can decide which direction we're going?
currency trader Jason Jankolvky (?sp) on forex tv states that the highest reading ever for short Euro positions ever recorded.
He thinks the top in the dollar is in.
If the Euro rallies strongly then this indicates that stock rally.
BUT, can't they wait a couple of days?
Gcocks,
TZA is starting to look interesting again. If I can get the closing price ($10.92), I'll pick up some after hours.
Edit: futures ran up a bit after hours and I now have some TZA at $10.90. We both have some now. That's probably not good 🙂
Red,
I am sorry to say that on Wall Street, white is black and black is white. Market is not going down because crooks are going to squeeze shorts, then same crooks squeeze bulls by pulling markets down. This is a game only a few will win. Tonight, Futures are going up the moment markets closed, you know how it works. They ramp futures huge, shorts pile on covering markets move up, bulls and fund managers jump-in fearing market is taking off. Market moves up another leg. This game is going on for several months, and nothing will stop this game, except a 3 of 3, if there is one to believe.
Good luck…
Earl, Nice update thanks, Sold half my TZA this morning. Actually got stopped out with profit. Then bought a smaller position this afternoon.
So much work went into this post Red. I truly appreciate it as I don't have the time to do the in depth analysis and this really helps me learn. Hopefully the answer really is in the charts. Tomorrow looks at least like it is going to open higher and I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens next.
Leo,
Nice post.
I can't help but wonder if the start of the drop to 1020 could wait until end of day Friday. That would line up with the New Moon Trade (new moon is Sunday), when I usually load up on TZA.
Futures are running up so far this evening.