Red, you are so cool to take the time to write this response to me. I will listen to you and if I profit from you, I will send you a slice! I will not chase and I will be patient. I got long today and sold after the close for a profit but I won't do that again as I can't stand being long.
I guess my biggest fear is that I have been short forever. Now that i have finally covered I am so scared that market is going to fall off a cliff right before my eyes. If we drop below 1080 tomorrow I am going to cry!
Anyway, your post at least makes me feel good enough to go to sleep!
Monica, if that happens… then 108 spy will be hit and a multi-day rally will occur. Then once it's done, you will have the perfect opportunity to get short.
Don't pay too much attention to after-hours, as the price can move a lot more then normal hours. I've seen it down 10 at night, and wake up in the morning and it is up 10.
Right now it's trading overseas, and that's why it's down. Wait to see what it's at in the morning. I don't see any big moves down until after the 2:30 pm est Wednesday FOMC meeting, and then later at night the State of the Union address… about 8 pm (I think?).
Then Thursday and Friday should sell off to 1080 spx, and maybe even pierce it intraday to lure in more bears. Don't be fooled. It's really good support at that level and should hold on the first hit (90% chance of a 2-5 day bounce).
If you want to get short, then look for the high on Wednesday. They might run it up into the FOMC meeting, and then go flat until Obama speaks at night. Of course the markets will be closed and you will need to get a position before the close.
They could sell off after the FOMC meeting, but I really think they will wait until the next day, so they can hear what Obama says.
Look for 111.50-112.00 spy as the high on Wednesday… if it gets there? I don't know if it does or not, but it shouldn't get through it. So, if it comes close to it and it's getting close to 2:30 on Wednesday, that might be the best place to go short for a move down to 108.00.
Be prepared to hold it until about Monday at the latest. If it hits 108.00 at anytime before then… get out and take your profits. Sit in cash for the following week as it will bounce higher… but not worth going long on.
I'm still short google and will get out when the market hits 1080 spx or so. The hardest thing for me to learn was to have patience and not to sell when I see the first little bit of profit.
You have to stick to your plan. I'm sticking to mine, and I know that 1080 has the highest probability of a bounce. Therefore, I will close my shorts only when it's hit.
You shouldn't go short unless you feel the market is high enough to profit from if it falls to 1080? If it falls tomorrow to 1080, then you missed your opportunity, and you should sit on the sidelines until the market retraces back up… which will take a week or so.
Don't chase this move down! Let me repeat that… Don't Chase this Move Down! If you miss it, stay out. If it retraces back up into the FOMC meeting, and you think it's high enough then you can go short, and hold until 1080.
Red – I am afraid too many people think this for it to come to fruition. Right now, the futures have had a large selloff and it looks like we are going to gap down tomorrow morning. But, I hope you are right!
Monica- your best bet is to get some advice from Anna on longer term directional options plays, (ITM, how far out, risk management, etc.) I am not an options expert, and only put on straight 2X and 3X equity trades as a core position based on change of trend and then pyramid on those positions if/when the tape doesn't prove me wrong, so I can't help you, but I think she's your best bet in this case. G/L and best to you as we all trade this thing together. 😉
Very true, but in my view its all about base hits, singles and doubles, the money in the middle. It would be oh so sweet if this market started working down finally 🙂
Red, you are so cool to take the time to write this response to me. I will listen to you and if I profit from you, I will send you a slice! I will not chase and I will be patient. I got long today and sold after the close for a profit but I won't do that again as I can't stand being long.
I guess my biggest fear is that I have been short forever. Now that i have finally covered I am so scared that market is going to fall off a cliff right before my eyes. If we drop below 1080 tomorrow I am going to cry!
Anyway, your post at least makes me feel good enough to go to sleep!
Monica, if that happens… then 108 spy will be hit and a multi-day rally will occur. Then once it's done, you will have the perfect opportunity to get short.
Don't pay too much attention to after-hours, as the price can move a lot more then normal hours. I've seen it down 10 at night, and wake up in the morning and it is up 10.
Right now it's trading overseas, and that's why it's down. Wait to see what it's at in the morning. I don't see any big moves down until after the 2:30 pm est Wednesday FOMC meeting, and then later at night the State of the Union address… about 8 pm (I think?).
Then Thursday and Friday should sell off to 1080 spx, and maybe even pierce it intraday to lure in more bears. Don't be fooled. It's really good support at that level and should hold on the first hit (90% chance of a 2-5 day bounce).
If you want to get short, then look for the high on Wednesday. They might run it up into the FOMC meeting, and then go flat until Obama speaks at night. Of course the markets will be closed and you will need to get a position before the close.
They could sell off after the FOMC meeting, but I really think they will wait until the next day, so they can hear what Obama says.
Look for 111.50-112.00 spy as the high on Wednesday… if it gets there? I don't know if it does or not, but it shouldn't get through it. So, if it comes close to it and it's getting close to 2:30 on Wednesday, that might be the best place to go short for a move down to 108.00.
Be prepared to hold it until about Monday at the latest. If it hits 108.00 at anytime before then… get out and take your profits. Sit in cash for the following week as it will bounce higher… but not worth going long on.
I'm still short google and will get out when the market hits 1080 spx or so. The hardest thing for me to learn was to have patience and not to sell when I see the first little bit of profit.
You have to stick to your plan. I'm sticking to mine, and I know that 1080 has the highest probability of a bounce. Therefore, I will close my shorts only when it's hit.
You shouldn't go short unless you feel the market is high enough to profit from if it falls to 1080? If it falls tomorrow to 1080, then you missed your opportunity, and you should sit on the sidelines until the market retraces back up… which will take a week or so.
Don't chase this move down! Let me repeat that… Don't Chase this Move Down! If you miss it, stay out. If it retraces back up into the FOMC meeting, and you think it's high enough then you can go short, and hold until 1080.
Red
Red – I am afraid too many people think this for it to come to fruition. Right now, the futures have had a large selloff and it looks like we are going to gap down tomorrow morning. But, I hope you are right!
Hi Red
your group seems to like what yu wrote
good stuff for sure
At the jaywiz blog, I posted a chart for this week showing what to expect and it is short term oreinted so very good for option traders
Just as I posted, the day started Up, but will give it back by noon to 1pm, but closing higher
Ditto for 26th and 27th, but 27th to 29th is shown to give back even more
the OCT- Nov lows would be the next best support levels
Jay
Hi Red
your group seems to like what yu wrote
good stuff for sure
At the jaywiz blog, I posted a chart for this week showing what to expect and it is short term oreinted so very good for option traders
Just as I posted, the day started Up, but will give it back by noon to 1pm, but closing higher
Ditto for 26th and 27th, but 27th to 29th is shown to give back even more
the OCT- Nov lows would be the next best support levels
Jay
Monica- your best bet is to get some advice from Anna on longer term directional options plays, (ITM, how far out, risk management, etc.) I am not an options expert, and only put on straight 2X and 3X equity trades as a core position based on change of trend and then pyramid on those positions if/when the tape doesn't prove me wrong, so I can't help you, but I think she's your best bet in this case. G/L and best to you as we all trade this thing together. 😉
Well, anything can happen between now and the morning…
Very true, but in my view its all about base hits, singles and doubles, the money in the middle. It would be oh so sweet if this market started working down finally 🙂
Fair value on Dow at 10.15 down about 27.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/
I have to give Anna credit… she's a master at options trading. I'll let you know what I'm thinking about as we get closer.
And I don't blame you for not trading the long side. It's hard to go long in this environment.