Don’t know about the “when” part but they always clear out the bears before they really tank it. If it closes here around the highs then this move up will continue into tomorrow morning at least. If they back off and close flat then it leaves “in-decision”, which could lead a move either way.
Odds (and the crooked nature of the game) suggest another move up tomorrow morning to clear out the stops sitting right above the 1406-1409 area. Only the retail bears got cleaned out today. Tomorrow they will take out the pro’s by going up above that zone.
This assumes that we close near the top today. Any selling into the close will negate that statement, and raise the odds on the bearish side and lower the odds on the bullish side.
For this to be the start of the 5th wave down we need to “not” go above the previous highs from yesterday (the 27th) on the ES and from the 23rd on other ETF’s. The most recent high must not be broken for this move up to simply be a subwave 2 inside a wave 5 down.
Total bear trap it seems. Looks like that was a B wave down with A wave up starting at 1343 spx and ending at 1409 spx. That means we’re likely going up in a C wave for the next week or so.
The only wildcard is if the 1343 to 1409 wave was a 4th and the 5th wave down started at 1409, with the move down today to 1385 as the 1st subwave inside the 5th wave.
That also implies that the move up from the 1385 low today to the current high is just a subwave 2 inside the 5th wave down. If this plays out then a subwave 3 down inside a wave 5 should come tomorrow.
The SPX dropped right to support on the 200dma at 1383.98 and bounced off of it. The 10dma is intercepting it as it is rising and is at 1383.70, which together form a necktie of support.
The first hit on those has a 90% chance of holding… which it did. And considering the volume (low) it could likely hold all day long and this could be the end of the move down. The only thing that would make me think otherwise is if we close below 1383 today.
Never forget that this market is rigged in favor of a “fantasy” that everything is “OK”…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-28/boehner-arouses-market-reid-beatdown-forgotten
Don’t know about the “when” part but they always clear out the bears before they really tank it. If it closes here around the highs then this move up will continue into tomorrow morning at least. If they back off and close flat then it leaves “in-decision”, which could lead a move either way.
Odds (and the crooked nature of the game) suggest another move up tomorrow morning to clear out the stops sitting right above the 1406-1409 area. Only the retail bears got cleaned out today. Tomorrow they will take out the pro’s by going up above that zone.
This assumes that we close near the top today. Any selling into the close will negate that statement, and raise the odds on the bearish side and lower the odds on the bullish side.
For this to be the start of the 5th wave down we need to “not” go above the previous highs from yesterday (the 27th) on the ES and from the 23rd on other ETF’s. The most recent high must not be broken for this move up to simply be a subwave 2 inside a wave 5 down.
meaning.. you think they’re about ready to take it down?
I don’t think there is any bears left at this point…
SPY Resistance levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/11/spy-resistance-levels_29.html
Bullish or Bearish?
http://screencast.com/t/1b8v1XWm
SkyNet… are you reading my comments? I’m Bullish here… 😉
Total bear trap it seems. Looks like that was a B wave down with A wave up starting at 1343 spx and ending at 1409 spx. That means we’re likely going up in a C wave for the next week or so.
The only wildcard is if the 1343 to 1409 wave was a 4th and the 5th wave down started at 1409, with the move down today to 1385 as the 1st subwave inside the 5th wave.
That also implies that the move up from the 1385 low today to the current high is just a subwave 2 inside the 5th wave down. If this plays out then a subwave 3 down inside a wave 5 should come tomorrow.
I give it 80/20 odds favoring the bulls…
wold
ve thought they’d put the low in 2morrow as its an 11 day
The SPX dropped right to support on the 200dma at 1383.98 and bounced off of it. The 10dma is intercepting it as it is rising and is at 1383.70, which together form a necktie of support.
The first hit on those has a 90% chance of holding… which it did. And considering the volume (low) it could likely hold all day long and this could be the end of the move down. The only thing that would make me think otherwise is if we close below 1383 today.