At this point in the day it seems likely that we’ll close at the high. This also means that there’s a 90% chance that we’ll make a higher high tomorrow. It could be only 1 point, 10 points, or a million points. The only “point” to this is that I missed the top by shorting today.
We needed to have dropped within the first hour today to put in a topping tail candle which would have given good odds for more selling tomorrow. Now it’s looking like we’ll pop in the morning tomorrow and then sell off the rest of the day putting a topping tail on Tuesday instead of today.
Of course if I’m completely wrong on this call then we could be headed to 1400 before rolling over, but that doesn’t seem likely. I think too many people are expecting a continued rally from here and are now long. The bears seem to have been squeezed out today from the huge volume in the ES I see.
Regardless of whether we pop higher tomorrow or not I’ll remain short until the downside target is hit. It could however take awhile longer to breakdown through the current low of 1340 then I thought. Still should happen by next Friday I think…
Fiscal Cliff talks today… does it really matter? Of course not as a few Billion in cuts doesn’t mean anything to the Trillions in debt that’s really out there. But I guess the gangsters have to distract the sheep with something…
certainly overbought. Well. hopefully I at least break even on my shorts by tomorrow/wed. Then I’ll close and maybe go short again sometime around Friday’s close, or, more likely, early Monday
Yeah- thanks. Almost did go short Friday, as I thought we were close enough. But, not big on holding things over the weekend either. I’m sitting on a 132 put, for next week, that I got at .22. So not too bad
Me too… I had to go with the odds on that call. And the odds are 90+ that when you close out a daily candle at the top with little to no topping tail, there will be a higher high the next trading day. Of course that could be a small move or a big move… and in this case it was a big move.
I’m happy to be short from this level though as being short on Friday would have certainly hurt a lot today. All the short term charts are overbought on the ES, but the SPX is lagging behind. This tells me there will be a move down caused from the ES being overbought, and this move will take 1-2 days to bottom.
Then the SPX and the ES can rally back up together and allow the ES to put in a lower high on its’ histogram bars while the SPX simply gets overbought for the first time. This should lead to another sell off to a lower low (then 1340) but might not happen until next week.
Man today was brutal. Good thing I went with next weeks expiration so the hit wasn’t as rough
At this point in the day it seems likely that we’ll close at the high. This also means that there’s a 90% chance that we’ll make a higher high tomorrow. It could be only 1 point, 10 points, or a million points. The only “point” to this is that I missed the top by shorting today.
We needed to have dropped within the first hour today to put in a topping tail candle which would have given good odds for more selling tomorrow. Now it’s looking like we’ll pop in the morning tomorrow and then sell off the rest of the day putting a topping tail on Tuesday instead of today.
Of course if I’m completely wrong on this call then we could be headed to 1400 before rolling over, but that doesn’t seem likely. I think too many people are expecting a continued rally from here and are now long. The bears seem to have been squeezed out today from the huge volume in the ES I see.
Regardless of whether we pop higher tomorrow or not I’ll remain short until the downside target is hit. It could however take awhile longer to breakdown through the current low of 1340 then I thought. Still should happen by next Friday I think…
Fiscal Cliff talks today… does it really matter? Of course not as a few Billion in cuts doesn’t mean anything to the Trillions in debt that’s really out there. But I guess the gangsters have to distract the sheep with something…
Yes, I’ll also be looking to exit by late Wednesday and possibly re-short on Friday.
certainly overbought. Well. hopefully I at least break even on my shorts by tomorrow/wed. Then I’ll close and maybe go short again sometime around Friday’s close, or, more likely, early Monday
Refresh page for technical video update…
just went short a bit heavier- so, hopefully we don’t get much more then this
SPX Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/11/s-500-intraday-update.html
Yeah- thanks. Almost did go short Friday, as I thought we were close enough. But, not big on holding things over the weekend either. I’m sitting on a 132 put, for next week, that I got at .22. So not too bad
Me too… I had to go with the odds on that call. And the odds are 90+ that when you close out a daily candle at the top with little to no topping tail, there will be a higher high the next trading day. Of course that could be a small move or a big move… and in this case it was a big move.
I’m happy to be short from this level though as being short on Friday would have certainly hurt a lot today. All the short term charts are overbought on the ES, but the SPX is lagging behind. This tells me there will be a move down caused from the ES being overbought, and this move will take 1-2 days to bottom.
Then the SPX and the ES can rally back up together and allow the ES to put in a lower high on its’ histogram bars while the SPX simply gets overbought for the first time. This should lead to another sell off to a lower low (then 1340) but might not happen until next week.