The “fake out” could be happening right now? While in the past they had the wild swings immediately right after the minutes were released they could just be taking longer now.
The market seems to be selling off on the shorter term charts as they became overbought a little. But the 4 hour and 2 hour charts are very oversold right now. They need 2-3 days of upward movement to get overbought again.
This looks to me like it’s trying to form a bottom from where it can rally some from. I’m thinking we go up tomorrow and Friday… leaving Monday as a “wildcard”?
What I’m thinking is going to happen is (after the wild swings in both directions… down first is likely) they will rally up on more “hopes” of QE4 from keywords that Bernanke says (which should “hint” at more crack without saying it exactly).
The rally “could” be a very powerful squeeze that closes the daily candle out solid white. Then a brief rally Thursday morning to take out the early bears that short at the close today… followed by a gradual rollover ending the day with a nice topping tail candle.
Then Friday would follow through with some more selling… leaving Monday to be a very ugly day! Of course they could also rally today and tomorrow and then put in the “topping” tail on Friday… leaving Monday up in the air? Everyone would be guessing at that point, not knowing what is to follow. Sounds more like them to do it this way.
The other scenario is that we briefly pop higher and sell off into the close leaving Thursday open to close nicely in the red. The bottom could then be put in around the 1390 ES area where there is some really good support.
That would make all the short term charts very overbought and a rally for 3-5 days should follow. That cancels out Black Monday in my opinion. They way I’m seeing it we need to rally up today and tomorrow to peak for a wave 2 up (inside a 3 down), which then allows for Monday to put in a wave 3 of 3 down.
It really depends on what they want to do at this point? Is the secret plan a nice Black Monday, or just a small correction to 1390, rally for 3-5 days and then drop one more time to 1330-1360 for the end of this sell off. Tough call, but I’m thinking they plan on a bigger move down. That signals a rally today and tomorrow with Monday to be ugly.
Wait to see if they rally from Bernanke releasing the FOMC minutes at 2:15, and then decide. I suspect that the first move will be the wrong direction. Meaning… if they sell off from what he says (or doesn’t say) then they are likely squeezing out the longs.
Then they “usually” rip it back the other direction (up in this case) to squeeze out the shorts. Since we’ve already sold off in front of the meeting it’s likely going to drop first and then rally the rest of the day.
Of course if they rally first then I’d be looking to get short as it will likely fail and roll back over into the close today. It’s always tough to trade on FOMC days as the true direction isn’t known until the day afterwards.
The “fake out” could be happening right now? While in the past they had the wild swings immediately right after the minutes were released they could just be taking longer now.
The market seems to be selling off on the shorter term charts as they became overbought a little. But the 4 hour and 2 hour charts are very oversold right now. They need 2-3 days of upward movement to get overbought again.
This looks to me like it’s trying to form a bottom from where it can rally some from. I’m thinking we go up tomorrow and Friday… leaving Monday as a “wildcard”?
So, no fakeout I guess?
And Bernanke says nothing… go figure! Same as it always was…
The first move after this FOMC minutes is usually the wrong direction
Yes, I agree…
What I’m thinking is going to happen is (after the wild swings in both directions… down first is likely) they will rally up on more “hopes” of QE4 from keywords that Bernanke says (which should “hint” at more crack without saying it exactly).
The rally “could” be a very powerful squeeze that closes the daily candle out solid white. Then a brief rally Thursday morning to take out the early bears that short at the close today… followed by a gradual rollover ending the day with a nice topping tail candle.
Then Friday would follow through with some more selling… leaving Monday to be a very ugly day! Of course they could also rally today and tomorrow and then put in the “topping” tail on Friday… leaving Monday up in the air? Everyone would be guessing at that point, not knowing what is to follow. Sounds more like them to do it this way.
The other scenario is that we briefly pop higher and sell off into the close leaving Thursday open to close nicely in the red. The bottom could then be put in around the 1390 ES area where there is some really good support.
That would make all the short term charts very overbought and a rally for 3-5 days should follow. That cancels out Black Monday in my opinion. They way I’m seeing it we need to rally up today and tomorrow to peak for a wave 2 up (inside a 3 down), which then allows for Monday to put in a wave 3 of 3 down.
It really depends on what they want to do at this point? Is the secret plan a nice Black Monday, or just a small correction to 1390, rally for 3-5 days and then drop one more time to 1330-1360 for the end of this sell off. Tough call, but I’m thinking they plan on a bigger move down. That signals a rally today and tomorrow with Monday to be ugly.
4 SURE ILL BE SHORT AT THE END OF TOMORROW SESSION….AINT LEAVING THE REPEAT OF BLACK MONDAY UNSHORTED…
Wait to see if they rally from Bernanke releasing the FOMC minutes at 2:15, and then decide. I suspect that the first move will be the wrong direction. Meaning… if they sell off from what he says (or doesn’t say) then they are likely squeezing out the longs.
Then they “usually” rip it back the other direction (up in this case) to squeeze out the shorts. Since we’ve already sold off in front of the meeting it’s likely going to drop first and then rally the rest of the day.
Of course if they rally first then I’d be looking to get short as it will likely fail and roll back over into the close today. It’s always tough to trade on FOMC days as the true direction isn’t known until the day afterwards.
Crude oil chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/10/crude-oil-chart-update_24.html
During this lunch time lull, though you might find this recent economic/prophetic dream I had interesting
http://death-of-jobs.blogspot.com/
Think i’ll go slightly short towards the close to play safe. This wave up is looking pretty weak